Good read:
http://newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/5/14/162425.shtml?s=lh
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Monday, May 14, 2007
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Pakistan May be Up for Grabs
A loud and clear warning bell. THIS is the sort of thing that portends a sudden change in the global power dynamic--with Pakistan's nuclear arsenal a prize that militants must not lay their hands on. (Pakistan's stockpile is estimated to include more than 60 nuclear weapons.)http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/13/wpak13.xml
Pakistan on brink of disaster as Karachi burns
By Isambard Wilkinson and Massoud Ansari in Karachi, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 11:37pm BST 12/05/2007
Chaos gripped the streets of Karachi yesterday as gun battles left at least 31 people dead and hundreds more injured, threatening a complete breakdown of law and order in Pakistan's largest and most volatile city.
With plumes of black smoke billowing over the city of 12 million people, there were extraordinary scenes as gunmen on motorbikes pumped bullets into crowds demonstrating against Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, while police stood by and watched.
In images more reminiscent of Baghdad, bloodstained corpses lay where they had fallen in the streets and bodies piled up in hospital morgues. As the sense of crisis deepened, a crisis meeting between Gen Musharraf and the prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, resolved to send in paramilitary troops to restore order, and to place the army on standby. The men agreed that a state of emergency would be imposed if the first two options failed.
It was the bloodiest escalation of the two-month long saga which began when the president attempted to sack the country's chief justice in March. The ensuing challenge by lawyers and opposition parties to Gen Musharraf's eight-year rule has left the president - a key Western ally in the "war on terror" - desperately clinging to power.
[snip]
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, May 11, 2007
Government Initializing Emergency Survival Program for Nuclear Terror--New Civil Defense Fallout Shelters?
Well, this is something that many of us have wanted for years. Better late than never ...
Contingencies for nuclear terrorist attack
Government working up plan to prevent chaos in wake of bombing of major city
James Sterngold, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, May 11, 2007
As concerns grow that terrorists might attack a major American city with a nuclear bomb, a high-level group of government and military officials has been quietly preparing an emergency survival program that would include the building of bomb shelters, steps to prevent panicked evacuations and the possible suspension of some civil liberties.
Many experts say the likelihood of al Qaeda or some other terrorist group producing a working nuclear weapon with illicitly obtained weapons-grade fuel is not large, but such a strike would be far more lethal, frightening and disruptive than the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Not only could the numbers killed and wounded be far higher, but the explosion could, experts say, ignite widespread fires, shut down most transportation, halt much economic activity and cause a possible disintegration of government order.
The efforts to prepare a detailed blueprint for survival took a step forward last month when senior government and military officials and other experts, organized by a joint Stanford-Harvard program called the Preventive Defense Project, met behind closed doors in Washington for a day-long workshop.
The session, called "The Day After," was premised on the idea that efforts focusing on preventing such a strike were no longer enough, and that the prospect of a collapse of government order was so great if there were an attack that the country needed to begin preparing an emergency program.
One of the participants, retired Vice Adm. Roger Rufe, is a senior official at the Department of Homeland Security who is currently designing the government's nuclear attack response plan.
The organizers of the nonpartisan project, Stanford's William Perry, a secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, and Harvard's Ashton Carter, a senior Defense Department official during the Clinton years, assumed the detonation of a bomb similar in size to the weapon that destroyed Hiroshima in World War II.
Such a weapon, with a force of around 10 to 15 kilotons, is small compared with most Cold War-era warheads, but is roughly the yield of a relatively simple bomb. That would be considerably more powerful and lethal than a so-called dirty bomb, which is a conventional explosive packed with some dangerous radioactive material that would be dispersed by the explosion.
The 41 participants -- including the directors of the country's two nuclear weapons laboratories, Homeland Security officials, a number of top military commanders and former government officials -- discussed how all levels of government ought to respond to protect the country from a second nuclear attack, to limit health problems from the radioactive fallout and to restore civil order. Comments inside the session were confidential, but a number of the participants described their views and the ideas exchanged.
A paper the organizers are writing, summarizing their recommendations, urges local governments and individuals to build underground bomb shelters, much as people did in the early days of the Cold War; encourages authorities who survive to prevent evacuation of at least some of the areas attacked for three days to avoid roadway paralysis and damage from exposure to radioactive fallout; and proposes suspending regulations on radiation exposure so that first responders would be able to act, even if that caused higher cancer rates.
"The public at large will expect that their government had thought through this possibility and to have planned for it," Carter said in an interview. "This kind of an event would be unprecedented. We have had glimpses of something like this with Hiroshima, and glimpses with 9/11 and with Katrina. But those are only glimpses."
Perhaps the most sobering issue discussed was the possibility of a chaotic, long-term crisis triggered by fears that the attackers might have more bombs. Such uncertainty could sow panic nationwide.
"If one bomb goes off, there are likely to be more to follow," Carter said. "This fact, that nuclear terrorism will appear as a syndrome rather than a single episode, has major consequences." It would, he added, require powerful government intervention to force people to do something many may resist -- staying put.
Fred Ikle, a former Defense Department official in the Reagan administration who authored a book last year urging attack preparation, "Annihilation from Within," said that the government should plan how it could restrict civil liberties and enforce a sort of martial law in the aftermath of a nuclear attack, but also have guidelines for how those liberties could be restored later.
That prospect underscored a central divide among participants at the recent meeting, several said.
Some participants argued that the federal government needs to educate first responders and other officials as quickly as possible on how to act even if transportation and communication systems break down, as seems likely, and if the government is unable to issue orders.
"There was a clear consensus that a nuclear bomb detonated in the United States or a friendly country would be an earth-shaking event, and we need to know how we will respond beforehand," said Ikle. "I wish we had started earlier, because this kind of planning can make an important difference."
But others said the meeting made it clear that the results of any attack would be so devastating and the turmoil so difficult to control, if not impossible, that the lesson should have been that the U.S. government needs to place a far greater emphasis on prevention.
"Your cities would empty and people would completely lose confidence in the ability of the government to protect them," said Steve Fetter, dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. "You'd have nothing that resembles our current social order. I'm not sure any preparation can be sufficient to deal with that."
Fetter added, "We have to hold current policymakers more responsible" for taking all out measures to prevent a nuclear attack.
Raymond Jeanloz, a nuclear weapons expert at UC Berkeley and a government adviser on nuclear issues, said that California might be better prepared than most states because of long-standing plans for dealing with earthquakes and other natural disasters. Those plans, he said, could be a useful model for first responders.
He added, as others did, that the dislocation and panic caused by a nuclear strike could make any responses unpredictable.
"The most difficult thing is the fear that this kind of planning, even talking about it, can cause," Jeanloz said.
Michael May, a former director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, defended the survival planning, saying that people should get used to the idea that such a crisis, while dire, could be managed -- a key step in restoring calm.
"You have to demystify the nuclear issue," said May, who now teaches at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. "By talking about this, you take away the feeling of helplessness."
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Contingencies for nuclear terrorist attack
Government working up plan to prevent chaos in wake of bombing of major city
James Sterngold, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, May 11, 2007
As concerns grow that terrorists might attack a major American city with a nuclear bomb, a high-level group of government and military officials has been quietly preparing an emergency survival program that would include the building of bomb shelters, steps to prevent panicked evacuations and the possible suspension of some civil liberties.
Many experts say the likelihood of al Qaeda or some other terrorist group producing a working nuclear weapon with illicitly obtained weapons-grade fuel is not large, but such a strike would be far more lethal, frightening and disruptive than the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Not only could the numbers killed and wounded be far higher, but the explosion could, experts say, ignite widespread fires, shut down most transportation, halt much economic activity and cause a possible disintegration of government order.
The efforts to prepare a detailed blueprint for survival took a step forward last month when senior government and military officials and other experts, organized by a joint Stanford-Harvard program called the Preventive Defense Project, met behind closed doors in Washington for a day-long workshop.
The session, called "The Day After," was premised on the idea that efforts focusing on preventing such a strike were no longer enough, and that the prospect of a collapse of government order was so great if there were an attack that the country needed to begin preparing an emergency program.
One of the participants, retired Vice Adm. Roger Rufe, is a senior official at the Department of Homeland Security who is currently designing the government's nuclear attack response plan.
The organizers of the nonpartisan project, Stanford's William Perry, a secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, and Harvard's Ashton Carter, a senior Defense Department official during the Clinton years, assumed the detonation of a bomb similar in size to the weapon that destroyed Hiroshima in World War II.
Such a weapon, with a force of around 10 to 15 kilotons, is small compared with most Cold War-era warheads, but is roughly the yield of a relatively simple bomb. That would be considerably more powerful and lethal than a so-called dirty bomb, which is a conventional explosive packed with some dangerous radioactive material that would be dispersed by the explosion.
The 41 participants -- including the directors of the country's two nuclear weapons laboratories, Homeland Security officials, a number of top military commanders and former government officials -- discussed how all levels of government ought to respond to protect the country from a second nuclear attack, to limit health problems from the radioactive fallout and to restore civil order. Comments inside the session were confidential, but a number of the participants described their views and the ideas exchanged.
A paper the organizers are writing, summarizing their recommendations, urges local governments and individuals to build underground bomb shelters, much as people did in the early days of the Cold War; encourages authorities who survive to prevent evacuation of at least some of the areas attacked for three days to avoid roadway paralysis and damage from exposure to radioactive fallout; and proposes suspending regulations on radiation exposure so that first responders would be able to act, even if that caused higher cancer rates.
"The public at large will expect that their government had thought through this possibility and to have planned for it," Carter said in an interview. "This kind of an event would be unprecedented. We have had glimpses of something like this with Hiroshima, and glimpses with 9/11 and with Katrina. But those are only glimpses."
Perhaps the most sobering issue discussed was the possibility of a chaotic, long-term crisis triggered by fears that the attackers might have more bombs. Such uncertainty could sow panic nationwide.
"If one bomb goes off, there are likely to be more to follow," Carter said. "This fact, that nuclear terrorism will appear as a syndrome rather than a single episode, has major consequences." It would, he added, require powerful government intervention to force people to do something many may resist -- staying put.
Fred Ikle, a former Defense Department official in the Reagan administration who authored a book last year urging attack preparation, "Annihilation from Within," said that the government should plan how it could restrict civil liberties and enforce a sort of martial law in the aftermath of a nuclear attack, but also have guidelines for how those liberties could be restored later.
That prospect underscored a central divide among participants at the recent meeting, several said.
Some participants argued that the federal government needs to educate first responders and other officials as quickly as possible on how to act even if transportation and communication systems break down, as seems likely, and if the government is unable to issue orders.
"There was a clear consensus that a nuclear bomb detonated in the United States or a friendly country would be an earth-shaking event, and we need to know how we will respond beforehand," said Ikle. "I wish we had started earlier, because this kind of planning can make an important difference."
But others said the meeting made it clear that the results of any attack would be so devastating and the turmoil so difficult to control, if not impossible, that the lesson should have been that the U.S. government needs to place a far greater emphasis on prevention.
"Your cities would empty and people would completely lose confidence in the ability of the government to protect them," said Steve Fetter, dean of the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. "You'd have nothing that resembles our current social order. I'm not sure any preparation can be sufficient to deal with that."
Fetter added, "We have to hold current policymakers more responsible" for taking all out measures to prevent a nuclear attack.
Raymond Jeanloz, a nuclear weapons expert at UC Berkeley and a government adviser on nuclear issues, said that California might be better prepared than most states because of long-standing plans for dealing with earthquakes and other natural disasters. Those plans, he said, could be a useful model for first responders.
He added, as others did, that the dislocation and panic caused by a nuclear strike could make any responses unpredictable.
"The most difficult thing is the fear that this kind of planning, even talking about it, can cause," Jeanloz said.
Michael May, a former director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, defended the survival planning, saying that people should get used to the idea that such a crisis, while dire, could be managed -- a key step in restoring calm.
"You have to demystify the nuclear issue," said May, who now teaches at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. "By talking about this, you take away the feeling of helplessness."
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Monday, May 07, 2007
Buy Low, Consume High
An important thing to consider for those of you mulling over whether to invest in some long-term storage food, as in freeze-dried or dehydrated varieties that are perfectly good for 20-30 years ...
The normally ever-rising cost of food should be a large factor in your decision. Inflation makes purchases of emergency storage food a no-brainer, even if some folks think that the price today of freeze-dried food has a premium attached to it. Compared to store-bought canned goods, the freeze-dried premium is minimal. BUT, when you consider the difference in storability, freeze-dried and dehydrated foods end up being far cheaper.
And that is even without factoring in potential crisis-driven leaps in food prices. What do you think will happen to food prices if there is any disruption to the long supply chain?
You invest in paper and hard goods with the hope that some day your original money will have grown as it works in that investment. The thing is, those types of investments may not be worth a thing to you in a worst-case scenario. But if you diversify a little of your investment dollar in long-term edibles, how can that possibly go wrong?
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
The normally ever-rising cost of food should be a large factor in your decision. Inflation makes purchases of emergency storage food a no-brainer, even if some folks think that the price today of freeze-dried food has a premium attached to it. Compared to store-bought canned goods, the freeze-dried premium is minimal. BUT, when you consider the difference in storability, freeze-dried and dehydrated foods end up being far cheaper.
And that is even without factoring in potential crisis-driven leaps in food prices. What do you think will happen to food prices if there is any disruption to the long supply chain?
You invest in paper and hard goods with the hope that some day your original money will have grown as it works in that investment. The thing is, those types of investments may not be worth a thing to you in a worst-case scenario. But if you diversify a little of your investment dollar in long-term edibles, how can that possibly go wrong?
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, May 04, 2007
"Household Preparedness Levels Suffer as the Memory of Katrina Dims"
This is our news release posted today on PR Web.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/05/prweb523450.htm
Household Preparedness Levels Suffer as the Memory of Katrina Dims; Safecastle Preparedness Buyers Club Aims to Help Reverse That
Minneapolis, MN (PRWEB) May 4, 2007 -- Recent pain from disasters such as 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina is a fading memory, as is the urge to prepare for future crises. Safecastle issues a pre-hurricane-season reminder that catastrophe seldom allows adequate time to brace for impact. Now is the time to take stock and prepare, taking advantage of the new Safecastle Royal Buyers Club discounted preparedness offerings.
"Public awareness is unprecedented," offered Victor Rantala, Safecastle LLC. "However, translating that into action is where we are again lagging."
What did it take to draw people's attention in the 21st century to the need for crisis preparedness? "Nothing less than a series of large natural disasters and their frightening aftermaths, looming potential threats of pandemic and terror attacks, simmering international tensions, and consistent government exhortations to take steps toward personal readiness," he replied.
"Yet, in spite of the knowledge that personal readiness is needed more than ever today, a majority of U.S. families and businesses remain inadequately prepared to vitally sustain members through short, post-disaster recovery periods."
Said Rantala, "We at Safecastle continuously aim to help remedy that situation. Now we are pleased to be publicly offering a new preparedness buyers club with a lifetime membership that brings the cost of virtually all emergency preparations well within the reach of Americans everywhere."
Easy to Put Away a Few Essential Supplies
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has a website - http://www.ready.gov - which the agency recommends a basic disaster preparedness plan and on-hand supplies that can sustain a household for a minimum of three days. That goal is very modest and easily attainable.
However, various surveys indicate household readiness is actually decreasing as time passes since Hurricane Katrina. "Americans have short memories when it comes to negative experiences," said Rantala, the owner of crisis-preparedness provider Safecastle LLC.
"Rebounding from a knockdown can pay off in recuperative energy that helps us emerge and grow out of our setbacks. But it also can cause us to have to needlessly suffer again when we don't apply and live out past lessons learned. As a nation, we have to be able to watch and learn from the traumas and react accordingly, even when we haven't been directly impacted as yet by such a disaster."
As outlined by the Department of Homeland Security website, the most basic life-sustaining needs include non-perishable food, clean water, a way to ensure breathable air, and warmth. Of course, there are many other simple items to supplement those basic needs that can greatly improve an individual's or group's ability to cope with and recover from catastrophe.
Said Rantala, "An acceptable level of preparedness is well within reach for almost everyone. It really doesn't take much to be physically positioned for a wide range of potential threats to our usually safe and comfortable lifestyle.
"Good insurance coverage on home, auto, life, and health is a necessity for negotiating life's ups and downs," he pointed out. "Such coverage is not cheap, but we are willing to foot the bill for that kind of peace of mind. However, most folks today are perfectly aware that insurance is not the whole answer. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, in particular, has plainly brought home that knowledge.
"We also know that government agencies and relief groups, as hard as they try, often cannot fill in the gaps and answer all the urgent calls for help in a large-scale crisis, nor can we count on them to be there for us at the most critical moment immediately after a catastrophe."
"Clearly, events such as Hurricane Katrina and the Asian Tsunami, as well as recent California earthquakes, regional power blackouts, and the terror attacks of 9/11 provide memorable lessons," Rantala said. "The bottom line is that we as individuals need to be equipped to react in a meaningful way, in order to save ourselves and those near and dear to us if we find ourselves in the crosshairs of a disaster in the making.
"We need to be reminded today, especially as hurricane season again approaches--the time to prepare is before the crisis erupts. Indifference to possible risk and danger is a killer. The greater our ability to be resilient and self-reliant in times of trouble, the better off we are when the worst day of our life suddenly dawns."
The Safecastle Royal Buyers Club is open to anyone for a low one-time lifetime membership fee. Joining this buyer's community qualifies members to acquire emergency supplies and materials at group rate discounts and with no shipping charges added (within the continental U.S.). See: https://www.safecastleroyal.com
About Safecastle LLC:
Safecastle is a growing force in the emergency preparedness marketplace, providing concerned citizens and businesses with consulting services, educational insights, and quality product offerings and service for increasing emergency readiness levels. Safecastle product lines include 90-year prefab steel shelters and safe rooms, long-shelf-life emergency foods, water purification and storage products, security items, and more.
###
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/05/prweb523450.htm
Household Preparedness Levels Suffer as the Memory of Katrina Dims; Safecastle Preparedness Buyers Club Aims to Help Reverse That
Minneapolis, MN (PRWEB) May 4, 2007 -- Recent pain from disasters such as 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina is a fading memory, as is the urge to prepare for future crises. Safecastle issues a pre-hurricane-season reminder that catastrophe seldom allows adequate time to brace for impact. Now is the time to take stock and prepare, taking advantage of the new Safecastle Royal Buyers Club discounted preparedness offerings.
"Public awareness is unprecedented," offered Victor Rantala, Safecastle LLC. "However, translating that into action is where we are again lagging."
What did it take to draw people's attention in the 21st century to the need for crisis preparedness? "Nothing less than a series of large natural disasters and their frightening aftermaths, looming potential threats of pandemic and terror attacks, simmering international tensions, and consistent government exhortations to take steps toward personal readiness," he replied.
"Yet, in spite of the knowledge that personal readiness is needed more than ever today, a majority of U.S. families and businesses remain inadequately prepared to vitally sustain members through short, post-disaster recovery periods."
Said Rantala, "We at Safecastle continuously aim to help remedy that situation. Now we are pleased to be publicly offering a new preparedness buyers club with a lifetime membership that brings the cost of virtually all emergency preparations well within the reach of Americans everywhere."
Easy to Put Away a Few Essential Supplies
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has a website - http://www.ready.gov - which the agency recommends a basic disaster preparedness plan and on-hand supplies that can sustain a household for a minimum of three days. That goal is very modest and easily attainable.
However, various surveys indicate household readiness is actually decreasing as time passes since Hurricane Katrina. "Americans have short memories when it comes to negative experiences," said Rantala, the owner of crisis-preparedness provider Safecastle LLC.
"Rebounding from a knockdown can pay off in recuperative energy that helps us emerge and grow out of our setbacks. But it also can cause us to have to needlessly suffer again when we don't apply and live out past lessons learned. As a nation, we have to be able to watch and learn from the traumas and react accordingly, even when we haven't been directly impacted as yet by such a disaster."
As outlined by the Department of Homeland Security website, the most basic life-sustaining needs include non-perishable food, clean water, a way to ensure breathable air, and warmth. Of course, there are many other simple items to supplement those basic needs that can greatly improve an individual's or group's ability to cope with and recover from catastrophe.
Said Rantala, "An acceptable level of preparedness is well within reach for almost everyone. It really doesn't take much to be physically positioned for a wide range of potential threats to our usually safe and comfortable lifestyle.
"Good insurance coverage on home, auto, life, and health is a necessity for negotiating life's ups and downs," he pointed out. "Such coverage is not cheap, but we are willing to foot the bill for that kind of peace of mind. However, most folks today are perfectly aware that insurance is not the whole answer. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, in particular, has plainly brought home that knowledge.
"We also know that government agencies and relief groups, as hard as they try, often cannot fill in the gaps and answer all the urgent calls for help in a large-scale crisis, nor can we count on them to be there for us at the most critical moment immediately after a catastrophe."
"Clearly, events such as Hurricane Katrina and the Asian Tsunami, as well as recent California earthquakes, regional power blackouts, and the terror attacks of 9/11 provide memorable lessons," Rantala said. "The bottom line is that we as individuals need to be equipped to react in a meaningful way, in order to save ourselves and those near and dear to us if we find ourselves in the crosshairs of a disaster in the making.
"We need to be reminded today, especially as hurricane season again approaches--the time to prepare is before the crisis erupts. Indifference to possible risk and danger is a killer. The greater our ability to be resilient and self-reliant in times of trouble, the better off we are when the worst day of our life suddenly dawns."
The Safecastle Royal Buyers Club is open to anyone for a low one-time lifetime membership fee. Joining this buyer's community qualifies members to acquire emergency supplies and materials at group rate discounts and with no shipping charges added (within the continental U.S.). See: https://www.safecastleroyal.com
About Safecastle LLC:
Safecastle is a growing force in the emergency preparedness marketplace, providing concerned citizens and businesses with consulting services, educational insights, and quality product offerings and service for increasing emergency readiness levels. Safecastle product lines include 90-year prefab steel shelters and safe rooms, long-shelf-life emergency foods, water purification and storage products, security items, and more.
###
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Honeybee Decline Could Affect Food Supply
http://www.startribune.com/535/story/1158875.html
Associated Press
Last update: May 02, 2007 – 2:37 PM
BELTSVILLE, Md. — Unless someone or something stops it soon, the mysterious killer that is wiping out many of the nation's honeybees could have a devastating effect on America's dinner plate, perhaps even reducing us to a glorified bread-and-water diet.
Honeybees don't just make honey; they pollinate more than 90 of the tastiest flowering crops we have.
Among them: apples, nuts, avocados, soybeans, asparagus, broccoli, celery, squash and cucumbers. And lots of the really sweet and tart stuff, too, including citrus fruit, peaches, kiwi, cherries, blueberries, cranberries, strawberries, cantaloupe and other melons.
In fact, about one-third of the human diet comes from insect-pollinated plants, and the honeybee is responsible for 80 percent of that pollination, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Even cattle, which feed on alfalfa, depend on bees. So if the collapse worsens, we could end up being "stuck with grains and water," said Kevin Hackett, the national program leader for USDA's bee and pollination program.
"This is the biggest general threat to our food supply," Hackett said.
While not all scientists foresee a food crisis, noting that large-scale bee die-offs have happened before, this one seems particularly baffling and alarming.
U.S. beekeepers in the past few months have lost one-quarter of their colonies — or about five times the normal winter losses — because of what scientists have dubbed Colony Collapse Disorder. The problem started in November and seems to have spread to 27 states, with similar collapses reported in Brazil, Canada and parts of Europe.
[snip]
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Associated Press
Last update: May 02, 2007 – 2:37 PM
BELTSVILLE, Md. — Unless someone or something stops it soon, the mysterious killer that is wiping out many of the nation's honeybees could have a devastating effect on America's dinner plate, perhaps even reducing us to a glorified bread-and-water diet.
Honeybees don't just make honey; they pollinate more than 90 of the tastiest flowering crops we have.
Among them: apples, nuts, avocados, soybeans, asparagus, broccoli, celery, squash and cucumbers. And lots of the really sweet and tart stuff, too, including citrus fruit, peaches, kiwi, cherries, blueberries, cranberries, strawberries, cantaloupe and other melons.
In fact, about one-third of the human diet comes from insect-pollinated plants, and the honeybee is responsible for 80 percent of that pollination, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Even cattle, which feed on alfalfa, depend on bees. So if the collapse worsens, we could end up being "stuck with grains and water," said Kevin Hackett, the national program leader for USDA's bee and pollination program.
"This is the biggest general threat to our food supply," Hackett said.
While not all scientists foresee a food crisis, noting that large-scale bee die-offs have happened before, this one seems particularly baffling and alarming.
U.S. beekeepers in the past few months have lost one-quarter of their colonies — or about five times the normal winter losses — because of what scientists have dubbed Colony Collapse Disorder. The problem started in November and seems to have spread to 27 states, with similar collapses reported in Brazil, Canada and parts of Europe.
[snip]
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Monday, April 30, 2007
The More Who are Prepared for Crisis, the Better Off We All will Be
There's a pervasive feeling in the community of those who prepare for crisis that we must keep our readiness a secret. For some, that is the rule even to be applied to friends and loved ones.
Obviously, it comes down to a matter of trust, or lack of it.
You see, the conventional wisdom has it that in a worst-case scenario, desperate marauders, needy neighbors, or authoritarian government representatives will seek to confiscate any and all available resources when needed. Certain Hollywood scenes of panic and anarchy replay in the mind's eye, and when it comes to speaking "truth" today--popular cinema is about as convincing and credible as it gets for many.
Personally, I'm not so cynical as to rule out an inherently broad-based, co-operative, civilized response in my area of operation if and when things go seriously south. In fact, that's the basket I've chosen for my proverbial eggs. Being in the preparedness biz, I am clearly and publicly a person who embraces readiness. I am also an activist beyond my commercial ventures in attempting to promote crisis preparedness everywhere.
Fact is, I am in this market not to make money. My accountant can vouch for that. I am first and foremost aiming to spread the word that preparedness is smart. It is logical. It is what's best for all of us who want to provide for our loved ones, come hell or high water.
Yes, I understand the fear. I appreciate caution in planning and preparing. But I also encourage anyone with a mind toward greater ambitions than simply looking out for one's own interests to consider how much better off we can all be if preparedness was truly a more universal fact of life.
Share the hope. The message is getting out, but some folks might just need a little extra nudge from someone they respect--you.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Obviously, it comes down to a matter of trust, or lack of it.
You see, the conventional wisdom has it that in a worst-case scenario, desperate marauders, needy neighbors, or authoritarian government representatives will seek to confiscate any and all available resources when needed. Certain Hollywood scenes of panic and anarchy replay in the mind's eye, and when it comes to speaking "truth" today--popular cinema is about as convincing and credible as it gets for many.
Personally, I'm not so cynical as to rule out an inherently broad-based, co-operative, civilized response in my area of operation if and when things go seriously south. In fact, that's the basket I've chosen for my proverbial eggs. Being in the preparedness biz, I am clearly and publicly a person who embraces readiness. I am also an activist beyond my commercial ventures in attempting to promote crisis preparedness everywhere.
Fact is, I am in this market not to make money. My accountant can vouch for that. I am first and foremost aiming to spread the word that preparedness is smart. It is logical. It is what's best for all of us who want to provide for our loved ones, come hell or high water.
Yes, I understand the fear. I appreciate caution in planning and preparing. But I also encourage anyone with a mind toward greater ambitions than simply looking out for one's own interests to consider how much better off we can all be if preparedness was truly a more universal fact of life.
Share the hope. The message is getting out, but some folks might just need a little extra nudge from someone they respect--you.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, April 20, 2007
CFR Online Debate--Experts Peg Probability of Terrorist NUCLEAR Detonation in America in the Next 10 Years from 29% to More than 50%
It goes without saying that a successful nuclear detonation by terrorists in an American (or European) city would have serious global ramifications and that people everywhere would be impacted. The main question mark in some folks' minds is whether or not there really is a serious threat of that happening.
The Council of Foreign Relations is sponsoring an online discussion/debate between two experts, who are citing others in the know. The resulting probabilities being reported are from 29% to greater than 50% of a nuclear (fission) detonation (not a radiological/dirty-bomb) in America within the next 10 years.
If you would happen to be near ground zero, you won't know what happened. But for everyone else, there are definitive steps that could have been taken to survive and enhance your chances for long-term health and prosperity. Now is the time to take those steps.
How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States? (click on title to view debate)
U.S. policymakers agree that as possible terrorist attacks go, the worst-case-scenario would involve detonation of a nuclear bomb in a major American city. This most catastrophic of scenarios provides ample fodder for the plot of television dramas, but the actual likelihood of such an event is open to debate.
Michael A. Levi CFR Fellow for Science and Technology and author of the forthcoming On Nuclear Terrorism and Graham T. Allison, director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and author of Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, consider the odds of such a devastating attack.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
The Council of Foreign Relations is sponsoring an online discussion/debate between two experts, who are citing others in the know. The resulting probabilities being reported are from 29% to greater than 50% of a nuclear (fission) detonation (not a radiological/dirty-bomb) in America within the next 10 years.
If you would happen to be near ground zero, you won't know what happened. But for everyone else, there are definitive steps that could have been taken to survive and enhance your chances for long-term health and prosperity. Now is the time to take those steps.
How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States? (click on title to view debate)
U.S. policymakers agree that as possible terrorist attacks go, the worst-case-scenario would involve detonation of a nuclear bomb in a major American city. This most catastrophic of scenarios provides ample fodder for the plot of television dramas, but the actual likelihood of such an event is open to debate.
Michael A. Levi CFR Fellow for Science and Technology and author of the forthcoming On Nuclear Terrorism and Graham T. Allison, director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and author of Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, consider the odds of such a devastating attack.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Open Source Intelligence
Got $30,000 for a year's worth of the world's best intelligence?
If not, at least read this column from Arnaud de Borgrave--"Open Source Intelligence." Oxford Analytica is the high-powered group for which world leaders have such a high regard.
According to de Borchgrave:
OA's latest contribution is "The Global Stress Points Matrix," a list of 20 potential points and where they rank from "negligible danger" of stress to "Very High" and "Extreme."
Overlapping "High," "Very High," and "Extreme" stress points are:
1. United States/Iran: U.S. strike on Iran
2. United States: Deep Recession
3. China/Taiwan: Armed Hostilities
Next in descending order of stress are:
4. International: Avian flu pandemic
5. Pakistan: State collapse
6. International: Chemical/biological attack
7. International: Return to protectionism
8. International: Terrorist dirty bomb
9. International: Oil price shock
10. Iraq: Collapse of state institutions
11. India/Pakistan: Armed hostilities
12. Russia: Rise of assertive nationalism
13. Latin America: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector
14. Lebanon: Civil war
15. Argentina: New sovereign default
16. North Korea: Military conflict
17. Nigeria: Large-scale disorder in the Delta
18. Horn of Africa: Regional conflagration
19. Central Asia: Risk of major disorder
20. Balkans: Return to serious disruption
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
If not, at least read this column from Arnaud de Borgrave--"Open Source Intelligence." Oxford Analytica is the high-powered group for which world leaders have such a high regard.
According to de Borchgrave:
OA's latest contribution is "The Global Stress Points Matrix," a list of 20 potential points and where they rank from "negligible danger" of stress to "Very High" and "Extreme."
Overlapping "High," "Very High," and "Extreme" stress points are:
1. United States/Iran: U.S. strike on Iran
2. United States: Deep Recession
3. China/Taiwan: Armed Hostilities
Next in descending order of stress are:
4. International: Avian flu pandemic
5. Pakistan: State collapse
6. International: Chemical/biological attack
7. International: Return to protectionism
8. International: Terrorist dirty bomb
9. International: Oil price shock
10. Iraq: Collapse of state institutions
11. India/Pakistan: Armed hostilities
12. Russia: Rise of assertive nationalism
13. Latin America: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector
14. Lebanon: Civil war
15. Argentina: New sovereign default
16. North Korea: Military conflict
17. Nigeria: Large-scale disorder in the Delta
18. Horn of Africa: Regional conflagration
19. Central Asia: Risk of major disorder
20. Balkans: Return to serious disruption
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
25 Years Murder-Free in "Gun Town USA"
Interesting look at Kennesaw, Georgia, where the crime rate plummeted after enacting a law requiring firearms for residents:
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55288
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55288
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Virginia Tech Students and Others in Gun-Free Zones are Defenseless Against Violent Crime
The Virginia Tech victims and families of victims are in my prayers. What an unthinkable (yet almost familiar) atrocity!
Senseless acts of violence against groups of innocent people in America almost always occur in places where gun control is most tightly in place. Yet, anti-gun proponents predictably leap into the dark void after these tragedies and try to paint the sin as being the result of the mere existence of guns out there ... or the fact that there are places where law-abiding citizens CAN acquire them in a legal fashion.
Fact is, when such crimes are snuffed out early or prevented all together, it is where law-abiding citizens have the right to carry weapons in self-defense. How many fewer fatalities might there have been yesterday if even just one or two individuals on campus in the killing zones had been carrying?
Here's a classic essay by L. Neil Smith: "Why Did It Have to be Guns?"
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Senseless acts of violence against groups of innocent people in America almost always occur in places where gun control is most tightly in place. Yet, anti-gun proponents predictably leap into the dark void after these tragedies and try to paint the sin as being the result of the mere existence of guns out there ... or the fact that there are places where law-abiding citizens CAN acquire them in a legal fashion.
Fact is, when such crimes are snuffed out early or prevented all together, it is where law-abiding citizens have the right to carry weapons in self-defense. How many fewer fatalities might there have been yesterday if even just one or two individuals on campus in the killing zones had been carrying?
Here's a classic essay by L. Neil Smith: "Why Did It Have to be Guns?"
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, April 13, 2007
Huntsville, Alabama Reviving Civil Defense Program
Of all the cities and towns in America, Huntsville is the only place engaged in some formal civil defense program?
What does this say about us? About how our state and local officials are so dependent upon the federal government to do it all for us?
Uncle Sam's politically plugged-in bureaucracies will always do pretty much what they decide is in the "public interest," as long as there are ample PACs and special-interest movements pushing them. But local officials are theoretically a lot more approachable and closer to the needs and desires of the populace.
If there is a worthwhile function of local government today, it should be in the field of ensuring local people are always going to have basic life-sustaining services and resources available to them, come hell or high water. Yep, a civil defense program fits that bill.
We should see other municipalities follow the lead of Huntsville. Continuing peace and prosperity in America are not likely in the long-term.
See: "City prepares for nuke terror--Local officials restore long-abandoned fallout shelters, train for WMD emergency"
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
What does this say about us? About how our state and local officials are so dependent upon the federal government to do it all for us?
Uncle Sam's politically plugged-in bureaucracies will always do pretty much what they decide is in the "public interest," as long as there are ample PACs and special-interest movements pushing them. But local officials are theoretically a lot more approachable and closer to the needs and desires of the populace.
If there is a worthwhile function of local government today, it should be in the field of ensuring local people are always going to have basic life-sustaining services and resources available to them, come hell or high water. Yep, a civil defense program fits that bill.
We should see other municipalities follow the lead of Huntsville. Continuing peace and prosperity in America are not likely in the long-term.
See: "City prepares for nuke terror--Local officials restore long-abandoned fallout shelters, train for WMD emergency"
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Monday, April 09, 2007
UK Projects Future Strategic Context--Key Risks and Shocks
Another "must-read"--Revolution, flashmobs, and brain chips. A grim vision of the future.
Information chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse weapons. The middle classes becoming revolutionary, taking on the role of Marx's proletariat. The population of countries in the Middle East increasing by 132%, while Europe's drops as fertility falls. "Flashmobs" - groups rapidly mobilised by criminal gangs or terrorists groups.
This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a Ministry of Defence team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic context" likely to face Britain's armed forces. It includes an "analysis of the key risks and shocks". Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre which drew up the report, describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than predictive".
What indeed does the next 30 years have in store? Most of us will quite possibly be around to see these changes come to fruition.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Saturday, April 07, 2007
High-Performance Folding Bikes at 30% OFF, thru May
A good, robust bicycle is one of the most useful items a person can have on hand. It can start paying dividends from the day you take delivery. But should a major crisis ever occur--a great bike could become a lifesaver.
Montague bikes are world-renowned for their performance under any conditions, and for being the product of a high-tech research project undertaken several years ago by DARPA to provide US paratroopers with folding bikes they could jump with and virtually hit the ground pedaling.
The project was a success. The bikes are in use by the military, and now a full line of Montague folding bikes are available to consumers.
We're proud at Safecastle to be a Montague dealer and we're excited about being able to offer our club members a chance right now to acquire a Montague bike or one of the new SwissBikes at a price that simply will not be matched out there.
Until May 31, Safecastle Royal members can take 30% off our list prices on all Montague bikes and accessories (with a minimum purchase of $100). We are listing seven bikes, including the famous "Paratrooper." Discounted prices range from $349 to $1431, with free shipping.
Check out our Montague page.
Consider how handy a bike can be that folds up or unfolds in 30 seconds! How easily it can be taken with you anywhere you go and stored under a desk, in a car trunk, in a closet, or wherever. Want to be ready for anything? A Montague bike is one good answer to your quest.
Consider that for this limited-time offer, you can easily save hundreds of dollars on a purchase that may be one of the best you'll ever make.
If you're not a club member yet--join now for a one-time $19 fee.
If you ARE a member, you’ve been emailed your 30% off coupon code. Let me know if I should send it again to you.
Below are some images of the top-end SwissBike XO
Montague bikes are world-renowned for their performance under any conditions, and for being the product of a high-tech research project undertaken several years ago by DARPA to provide US paratroopers with folding bikes they could jump with and virtually hit the ground pedaling.
The project was a success. The bikes are in use by the military, and now a full line of Montague folding bikes are available to consumers.
We're proud at Safecastle to be a Montague dealer and we're excited about being able to offer our club members a chance right now to acquire a Montague bike or one of the new SwissBikes at a price that simply will not be matched out there.
Until May 31, Safecastle Royal members can take 30% off our list prices on all Montague bikes and accessories (with a minimum purchase of $100). We are listing seven bikes, including the famous "Paratrooper." Discounted prices range from $349 to $1431, with free shipping.
Check out our Montague page.
Consider how handy a bike can be that folds up or unfolds in 30 seconds! How easily it can be taken with you anywhere you go and stored under a desk, in a car trunk, in a closet, or wherever. Want to be ready for anything? A Montague bike is one good answer to your quest.
Consider that for this limited-time offer, you can easily save hundreds of dollars on a purchase that may be one of the best you'll ever make.
If you're not a club member yet--join now for a one-time $19 fee.
If you ARE a member, you’ve been emailed your 30% off coupon code. Let me know if I should send it again to you.
Below are some images of the top-end SwissBike XO
NOTE: These prices require volume buys, so we may need to hold individual orders for a short time till we accumulate enough to get adequate wholesale discounts. Be assured, that with or without the best volume discounts, we WILL submit and honor all orders at the offered 30% off pricing. Once the order is submitted, Montague fulfills the orders and ships directly to the buyer for us, with receipt normally within a week to 10 days.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, April 06, 2007
How to Get Out Alive
This is a must-read article from a couple of years ago that reminds us how critical it is to have some pre-cognition of our surroundings and our worst-case options if we are to have a decent chance at surviving sudden crises.I myself have been in a few unexpected crisis situations where my responses were inexplicably sluggish. Bottom line: it makes all the sense in the world to try to always be aware of escape routes and any other logical options should the unthinkable occur.
By AMANDA RIPLEY
TIME Magazine
When the plane hit Elia Zedeno's building on 9/11, the effect was not subtle. From the 73rd floor of Tower 1, she heard a booming explosion and felt the building actually lurch to the south, as if it might topple. It had never done that before, even in 1993 when a bomb exploded in the basement, trapping her in an elevator. This time, Zedeno grabbed her desk and held on, lifting her feet off the floor. Then she shouted, "What's happening?" You might expect that her next instinct was to flee. But she had the opposite reaction. "What I really wanted was for someone to scream back, 'Everything is O.K.! Don't worry. It's in your head.'"
She didn't know it at the time, but all around her, others were filled with the same reflexive incredulity. And the reaction was not unique to 9/11. Whether they're in shipwrecks, hurricanes, plane crashes or burning buildings, people in peril experience remarkably similar stages. And the first one--even in the face of clear and urgent danger--is almost always a period of intense disbelief.
Luckily, at least one of Zedeno's colleagues responded differently. "The answer I got was another co-worker screaming, 'Get out of the building!'" she remembers now. Almost four years later, she still thinks about that command. "My question is, What would I have done if the person had said nothing?"
Most of the people who died on 9/11 had no choice. They were above the impact zone of the planes and could not find a way out. But investigators are only now beginning to understand the actions and psychology of the thousands who had a chance to escape. The people who made it out of the World Trade Center, for example, waited an average of 6 minutes before heading downstairs, according to a new National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) study drawn from interviews with nearly 900 survivors. But the range was enormous. Why did certain people leave immediately while others lingered for as long as half an hour? Some were helping co-workers. Others were disabled. And in Tower 2, many were following fatally flawed directions to stay put. But eventually everyone saw smoke, smelled jet fuel or heard someone giving the order to leave. Many called relatives. About 1,000 took the time to shut down their computers, according to NIST.
In other skyscraper fires, staying inside might have been exactly the right thing to do. In the case of the Twin Towers, at least 135 people who theoretically had access to open stairwells--and enough time to use them--never made it out, the report found.Since the early days of the atom bomb, scientists have been trying to understand how to move masses of people out of danger. Engineers have fashioned glowing exit signs, sprinklers and less flammable materials. Elaborate computer models can simulate the emptying of Miami or the Sears Tower, showing thousands of colored dots streaming for safety like a giant Ms. Pac-Man colony. But the most vexing problem endures. And it is not signage or architecture or traffic flow. It's us. Large groups of people facing death act in surprising ways. Most of us become incredibly docile. We are kinder to one another than normal. We panic only under certain rare conditions. Usually, we form groups and move slowly, as if sleepwalking in a nightmare.
Zedeno still did not immediately flee on 9/11, even after her colleague screamed at her. First she reached for her purse, and then she started walking in circles. "I was looking for something to take with me. I remember I took my book. Then I kept looking around for other stuff to take. It was like I was in a trance," she says, smiling at her behavior. When she finally left, her progress remained slow. The estimated 15,410 who got out, the NIST findings show, took about a minute to make it down each floor--twice as long as the standard engineering codes predicted. It took Zedeno more than an hour to descend. "I never found myself in a hurry," she says. "It's weird because the sound, the way the building shook, should have kept me going fast. But it was almost as if I put the sound away in my mind."
Had the planes hit later in the day, when the buildings typically held more than 32,000 additional people, a full evacuation at that pace would have taken more than four hours, according to the NIST study. More than 14,000 probably would have perished, Zedeno among them.
In a crisis, our instincts can be our undoing. William Morgan, who directs the exercise-psychology lab at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, has studied mysterious scuba accidents in which divers drowned with plenty of air in their tanks. It turns out that certain people experience an intense feeling of suffocation when their mouths are covered. They respond to that overwhelming sensation by relying on their instinct, which is to rip out whatever is in their mouths. For scuba divers, unfortunately, it is their oxygen source. On land, that would be a perfect solution.
Why do our instincts sometimes backfire so dramatically? Research on how the mind processes information suggests that part of the problem is a lack of data. Even when we're calm, our brains require 8 to 10 sec. to handle each novel piece of complex information. The more stress, the slower the process. Bombarded with new information, our brains shift into low gear just when we need to move fast. We diligently hunt for a shortcut to solve the problem more quickly. If there aren't any familiar behaviors available for the given situation, the mind seizes upon the first fix in its library of habits--if you can't breathe, remove the object in your mouth.
That neurological process might explain, in part, the urge to stay put in crises. "Most people go their entire lives without a disaster," says Michael Lindell, a professor at the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center at Texas A&M University. "So, the most reasonable reaction when something bad h appens is to say, This can't possibly be happening to me." Lindell sees the same tendency, which disaster researchers call normalcy bias, when entire populations are asked to evacuate.
When people are told to leave in anticipation of a hurricane or flood, most of them check with four or more sources--family, newscasters and officials, among others--before deciding what to do, according to a 2001 study by sociologist Thomas Drabek. That process of checking in, known to experts as milling, is common in disasters. On 9/11 at least 70% of survivors spoke with other people before trying to leave, the NIST study shows. (In that regard, if you work or live with a lot of women, your chances of survival may increase, since women are quicker to evacuate than men are.)
People caught up in disasters tend to fall into three categories. About 10% to 15% remain calm and act quickly and efficiently. Another 15% or less completely freak out--weeping, screaming or otherwise hindering the evacuation. That kind of hysteria is usually isolated and quickly snuffed out by the crowd. The vast majority of people do very little. They are "stunned and bewildered," as British psychologist John Leach put it in a 2004 article published in Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine.
So what determines which category you fall into? You might expect decisive people to be assertive and flaky people to come undone. But when nothing is normal, the rules of everyday life do not apply. No one knows more about human behavior in disasters than researchers in the aviation industry. Because they have to comply with so many regulations, they run thousands of people through experiments and interview scores of crash survivors. Of course, a burning plane is not the same as a flaming skyscraper or a sinking ship. But some behaviors in all three environments turn out to be remarkably similar.
On March 27, 1977, a Pan Am 747 awaiting takeoff at the Tenerife airport in the Canary Islands off Spain was sliced open without warning by a Dutch KLM jet that had come hurtling out of the fog at 160 m.p.h. The collision left twisted metal, along with comic books and toothbrushes, strewn along a half-mile stretch of tarmac. Everyone on the KLM jet was killed instantly. But it looked as if many of the Pan Am passengers had survived and would have lived if they had got up and walked off the fiery plane.
Floy Heck, then 70, was sitting on the Pan Am jet between her husband and her friends, en route from their California retirement residence to a Mediterranean cruise. After the KLM jet sheared off the top of their plane, Heck could not speak or move. "My mind was almost blank. I didn't even hear what was going on," she told an Orange County Register reporter years later. But her husband Paul Heck, 65, reacted immediately. He ordered his wife to get off the plane. She followed him through the smoke "like a zombie," she said. Just before they jumped out of a hole in the left side of the craft, she looked back at her friend Lorraine Larson, who was just sitting there, looking straight ahead, her mouth slightly open, hands folded in her lap. Like dozens of others, she would die not from the collision but from the fire that came afterward.
We tend to assume that plane crashes--and most other catastrophes--are binary: you live or you die, and you have very little choice in the matter. But in all serious U.S. plane accidents from 1983 to 2000, just over half the passengers lived, according to the National Transportation Safety Board. And some survived because of their individual traits or behavior--human factors, as crash investigators put it. After the Tenerife catastrophe, aviation experts focused on those factors--and people like the Hecks--and decided that they were just as important as the design of the plane itself.
Unlike tall buildings, planes are meant to be emptied fast. Passengers are supposed to be able to get out within 90 seconds, even if only half the exits are available and bags are strewn in the aisles. As it turns out, the people on the Pan Am 747 had at least 60 seconds to flee before fire engulfed the plane. But of the 396 people on board, 326 were killed. Including the KLM victims, 583 people ultimately died--making the Tenerife crash the deadliest accident in civil aviation history.
What happened? Aren't disasters supposed to turn us into animals, driven by instinct and surging with adrenaline?
In the 1970s, psychologist Daniel Johnson was working on safety research for McDonnell Douglas. The more disasters he studied, the more he realized that the classic fight-or-flight behavior paradigm was incomplete. Again and again, in shipwrecks as well as plane accidents, he saw examples of people doing nothing at all. He was even able to re-create the effect in his lab. He found that about 45% of people in his experiment shut down (that is, stopped moving or speaking for 30 sec. or often longer) when asked under pressure to perform unfamiliar but basic tasks. "They quit functioning. They just sat there," Johnson remembers. It seemed horribly maladaptive. How could so many people be hard-wired to do nothing in a crisis?
But it turns out that that freezing behavior may be quite adaptive in certain scenarios. An animal that goes into involuntary paralysis may have a better chance of surviving a predatory attack. Many predators will not eat prey that is not struggling; that way, they are less likely to eat something sick or rotten that would end up killing them. Psychologist Gordon Gallup Jr. has found similar behavior among human rape victims. "They report being vividly aware of what was happening but unable to respond," he says.
In a fire or on a sinking ship, however, such a strategy can be fatal. So is it possible to override this instinct--or prevent it from kicking in altogether?
In the hours just before the Tenerife crash, Paul Heck did something highly unusual. While waiting for takeoff, he studied the 747's safety diagram. He looked for the closest exit, and he pointed it out to his wife. He had been in a theater fire as a boy, and ever since, he always checked for the exits in an unfamiliar environment. When the planes collided, Heck's brain had the data it needed. He could work on automatic, whereas other people's brains plodded through the storm of new information. "Humans behave much more appropriately when they know what to expect--as do rats," says Cynthia Corbett, a human-factors specialist with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
To better understand how the mind responds to a novel situation like a plane crash, I visited the FAA's training academy in Oklahoma City, Okla. In a field behind one of their labs, they had hoisted a jet section on risers. I boarded the mock-up plane along with 30 flight-attendant supervisors. Inside, it looked just like a normal plane, and the flight attendants made jokes, pretending to be passengers. "Could I get a cocktail over here, please? I paid a lot of money for this seat!"
But once some (nontoxic) smoke started pouring into the cabin, everyone got quiet. As most people do, I underestimated how quickly the smoke would fill the space, from ceiling to floor, like a black curtain unfurling in front of us. In 20 sec., all we could see were the pin lights along the floor. As we stood to evacuate, there was a loud thump. In a crowd of experienced flight attendants, still someone had hit his or her head on an overhead bin. In a new situation, with a minor amount of stress, our brains were performing clumsily. As we filed toward the exit slide, crouched low, holding on to the person in front of us, several of the flight attendants had to be comforted by their colleagues.
Remember: those were trained professionals who had jumped down a slide at some point to become certified. I could imagine how much worse things might go in a real emergency with regular passengers and screaming children. As we emerged into the light, the mood brightened. The flight attendants cheered as their colleagues slid, one by one, to the ground.
Mac McLean has been studying plane evacuations for 16 years at the FAA's Civil Aerospace Medical Institute. He starts all his presentations with a slide that reads IT'S THE PEOPLE. He is convinced that if passengers had a mental plan for getting out of a plane, they would move much more quickly in a crisis. But, like others who study disaster behavior, he is perpetually frustrated that not more is done to encourage self-reliance. "The airlines and the flight attendants underestimate the fact that passengers can be good survivors. They think passengers are goats," he says. Better, more detailed safety briefings could save lives, McLean believes, but airline representatives have repeatedly told him they don't want to scare passengers.
And so most passengers are indeed goats. Should the worst occur, says McLean, "people don't have a clue. They want you to come by and say, O.K., hon, it's time to go. Plane's on fire."
If we know that training--or even mental rehearsal--vastly improves people's responses to disasters, it is surprising how little of it we do. Even in the World Trade Center, which had complicated escape routes and had been attacked once before, preparation levels were abysmal, we now know. Fewer than half the survivors had ever entered the stairwells before, according to the NIST report. Thousands of people hadn't known they had to wind through confusing transfer hallways to get down.
Early findings from another study, sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control, found that only 45% of 445 Trade Center workers interviewed had known the buildings had three stairwells. Only half had known the doors to the roof would be locked. "I found the lack of preparedness shocking," says lead investigator Robyn Gershon, an associate professor of sociomedical sciences at Columbia University who shared the findings with TIME.
Until last year, it was illegal to require anyone in a New York City high rise to evacuate in a drill. That is absurd, of course. Under regulations being debated, building managers will probably have to run full or partial evacuation drills every two years so most people in those buildings will have entered their stairwells at least once. Some people may even descend to the bottom, and they will never forget how long it takes. The disabled will figure out how much assistance they need. The obese will see that they slow down the whole evacuation as they struggle for breath.
Manuel Chea, then a systems administrator on the 49th floor of Tower 1, did everything right on 9/11. As soon as the building stopped swaying, he jumped up from his cubicle and ran to the closest stairwell. It was an automatic reaction. As he left, he noticed that some of his colleagues were collecting things to take with them. "I was probably the fastest one to leave," he says. An hour later, he was outside.
When I asked him why he had moved so swiftly, he had several theories. The previous year, his house in Queens, N.Y., had burned to the ground. He had escaped, blinded by smoke. Oh, yes, he had also been in a serious earthquake as a child in Peru and in several smaller ones in Los Angeles years later. He was, you could say, a disaster expert. And there's nothing like a string of bad luck to prepare you for the unthinkable.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, March 30, 2007
Bible Prophecy Illuminates Recent Events in the Holy Land
I've been impressed with the writings of Ellis Skolfield, a conservative author and Bible teacher in the latter years of his long and productive life on earth.
His learned perspective on Biblical prophecy and his ability to communicate his views with clarity are what distinguish his many works. I highly recommend spending time reading "The False Prophet" which you can link to for free in pdf format below.
Here's a snippet from his publisher's website:
Recent Events in the Holy Land fulfill Bible prophecy.
It can now be shown conclusively that Daniel, a prophet in the Hebrew Scriptures, prophesied the coming of Islam 1200 years before Muhammad was born. Those same scriptures prophesied the crucifixion of Messiah over 500 years before Jesus was born. John, another Bible prophet, foresaw the new nation of Israel 1800 years before it was established. John then prophesied that Jerusalem would be freed of Islamic control by 1967.
All these events were foreseen right to the year, putting to rest the Islamic claim that Jewish and Christian Scriptures were corrupted. Many Moslems also believe the number 666 points to the Koran and its prophet. The coming of a man identified with that number, and its dire significance, was prophesied in the Bible over 600 years before the Koran was written.
Thousands of years old, these Bible prophecies were fulfilled exactly as predicted. They impact our spiritual lives regardless of our religious preference. Clear and easy to read, The False Prophet, by our author Ellis Skolfield, is not a book against Jews or Moslems or anyone else. It is a book about prophetic truth. The God of Heaven is truth, and how well we serve Him is not determined by how cleverly we can defend our traditions, but on how willing we are to seek out and follow the truth.
Please click here for a FREE download of The False Prophet.
His learned perspective on Biblical prophecy and his ability to communicate his views with clarity are what distinguish his many works. I highly recommend spending time reading "The False Prophet" which you can link to for free in pdf format below.
Here's a snippet from his publisher's website:
Recent Events in the Holy Land fulfill Bible prophecy.
It can now be shown conclusively that Daniel, a prophet in the Hebrew Scriptures, prophesied the coming of Islam 1200 years before Muhammad was born. Those same scriptures prophesied the crucifixion of Messiah over 500 years before Jesus was born. John, another Bible prophet, foresaw the new nation of Israel 1800 years before it was established. John then prophesied that Jerusalem would be freed of Islamic control by 1967.
All these events were foreseen right to the year, putting to rest the Islamic claim that Jewish and Christian Scriptures were corrupted. Many Moslems also believe the number 666 points to the Koran and its prophet. The coming of a man identified with that number, and its dire significance, was prophesied in the Bible over 600 years before the Koran was written.
Thousands of years old, these Bible prophecies were fulfilled exactly as predicted. They impact our spiritual lives regardless of our religious preference. Clear and easy to read, The False Prophet, by our author Ellis Skolfield, is not a book against Jews or Moslems or anyone else. It is a book about prophetic truth. The God of Heaven is truth, and how well we serve Him is not determined by how cleverly we can defend our traditions, but on how willing we are to seek out and follow the truth.
Please click here for a FREE download of The False Prophet.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, March 23, 2007
Eight Days Left for 30% Off Mountain House Packages!!
Through the end of March, we're running our biggest sale ever on Mountain House can cases.
Safecastle Royal members can now score a full 30% discount on our Mountain House #10 can case listings, with a minimum 8-case order. That applies to our pre-selected 8-case and 25-case packages, or to your own 8+ case orders from our "Build Your Own Order" page.
We are talking savings here of several hundred dollars ... up to more than a thousand dollars!!
If you are a member and do not have the recent email with the applicable coupon code--please let me know: jcrefuge@safecastle.net
If you want to become a member and take advantage of this deal (and similar ongoing discounts on all our products), it's just a one-time $19 membership fee. Go to our buyers club homepage and purchase the membership: www.safecastleroyal.com
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Safecastle Royal members can now score a full 30% discount on our Mountain House #10 can case listings, with a minimum 8-case order. That applies to our pre-selected 8-case and 25-case packages, or to your own 8+ case orders from our "Build Your Own Order" page.
We are talking savings here of several hundred dollars ... up to more than a thousand dollars!!
If you are a member and do not have the recent email with the applicable coupon code--please let me know: jcrefuge@safecastle.net
If you want to become a member and take advantage of this deal (and similar ongoing discounts on all our products), it's just a one-time $19 membership fee. Go to our buyers club homepage and purchase the membership: www.safecastleroyal.com
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Study Details Catastrophic Impact of Nuclear Attack on US Cities
This is being taken more and more seriously in public circles. Could be that we'll see some form of civil defense program again before too long.
In my opinion, a MUST READ: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-03/uog-sdc032007.php
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
In my opinion, a MUST READ: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-03/uog-sdc032007.php
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Monday, March 19, 2007
Real World Results of Appeasement
The natural tendency for thoroughly civilized, self-satisfied folks is to want to avoid confrontation at all costs, with the assumption that if we leave "them" alone, they'll leave us alone.
Even when it has been shown over and over and over again on any number of scales that that is an illusory falsehood, we want to think THIS time it can work. Embrace and/or tolerate the "victims" who would victimize others, and they will become as we are--soft, unprincipled consumers of media-fabricated pop culture.
Here's a real-time example for us, once again illustrating the vulnerability of those who choose to back away:
Spanish Lessons in Appeasement, by Aaron Hanscomb
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
Even when it has been shown over and over and over again on any number of scales that that is an illusory falsehood, we want to think THIS time it can work. Embrace and/or tolerate the "victims" who would victimize others, and they will become as we are--soft, unprincipled consumers of media-fabricated pop culture.
Here's a real-time example for us, once again illustrating the vulnerability of those who choose to back away:
Spanish Lessons in Appeasement, by Aaron Hanscomb
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastleroyal.com
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