by JC Refuge
Revisiting a very practical and handy Rand Corporation book,
"Individual Preparedness and
Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist
Attacks," we can be reminded of some of the basic how-to’s involved with nuclear readiness.
To see the entire monograph in pdf form, go to: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1731/index.html
Excerpt - Nuclear
Attack
"A nuclear detonation has several immediate effects: a
powerful blast that knocks over buildings, high-energy prompt radiation from
the nuclear reaction, a strong flash of light and heat, and an electromagnetic
pulse that may interfere with electronic equipment. The distance those effects
are felt from the detonation depends on the size of the weapon and how high
above the ground the detonation occurs. In the Cold War, attacks were expected
to have involved many strikes with very large weapons (hundreds of kilotons).
While it is not possible to predict the characteristics of future terrorist
attacks, they are probably more likely to use a single smaller weapon that
ranges from less than a kiloton to 10 kilotons and are likely to detonate the
nuclear device on the ground, not in the air. A ground burst will have reduced
blast effects but will produce a larger footprint on the ground of the highly
radioactive fallout cloud, extending possibly tens of miles. This fallout could
be lethal to those in its path who are not well protected. Nuclear attacks will
also significantly damage infrastructure, not only to buildings but also to
utilities, electronics, and other services.
"Timelines.
The prompt effects of nuclear weapons are essentially instantaneous—they last
for a minute or less. The fires caused by the heat from the detonation start
soon after but are not likely to become a broad fire for 20 minutes or more.
Radioactive particles from the fallout cloud begin to fall to the ground 10–15
minutes after the detonation near the spot of the detonation. Farther away, the
radioactive fallout begins to land soon after the cloud passes overhead. After
about 24 hours, all the fallout is deposited. The radioactivity in the fallout
is extremely high early on. However, after two days, it will have decreased in
intensity significantly (by a factor of 100 compared to one hour after the
blast).
"Detection.
A nuclear detonation will be unmistakable from the moment it occurs. The bright
flash, the widespread physical destruction, the searing heat, and the mushroom
cloud are unique. During the Cold War, the attack would have been detected as
satellites tracked missiles on their 30-minute journey to the United States
from Russia, which would have given individuals a chance to get to a fallout
shelter. Terrorists are much more likely to deliver the weapon surreptitiously,
perhaps by a truck or ship, rather than by missile. Hence, there would be
little chance for early detection and warning.
"Support from
Officials/Governments. Government officials would be unlikely to provide
support until well after the detonation. Initial activities would include
providing medical care to survivors, rescuing people from areas that are safe
enough to enter briefly, and informing individuals when the fallout radiation
was low enough that individuals could leave their shelters and the contaminated
fallout area."
Response Strategy
"In a surprise attack, an individual cannot avoid the
initial effects of a nuclear detonation—blast, heat, and prompt radiation.
However, the dangers from exposure to the radioactive fallout from the cloud
that will form shortly thereafter can be reduced significantly. This will
require that an individual locate the area of this radioactive cloud and act
quickly. The individual’s overarching goal would be to avoid fallout by either
quickly evacuating the fallout zone or seeking the best available shelter.
Recommended Actions
"1. Move out of the path of the radioactive fallout
cloud as quickly as possible (less than 10 minutes when in immediate blast
zone) and then find medical care immediately.
"Individuals can best protect themselves by evacuating
the area where the radioactive fallout is likely to land. This is the case
because evacuation provides protection that is full and indefinite and is
appropriate for wherever the attack occurs and for different variations in an
attack. It makes possible access to medical care, which will be critical to
individuals in the blast zone who may have absorbed a high dose of prompt
radiation from the detonation or sustained injuries from the blast and heat. It
is also low in cost and requires little preparation. The fallout zone is
defined as that area in which the fallout will generate 100 rad over 24 hours.
"Evacuation affords such protection because the onset
of the radioactive fallout is not immediate but is expected to begin 10–15
minutes after the detonation in the vicinity of the blast and extend for hours
as the radioactive cloud moves downwind. Thus, a shortcoming of evacuation in
attacks involving chemical or radiological weapons—that it cannot be done
quickly enough to provide adequate protection—does not hold in this case.
"Evacuation also protects against the hazard of large
fires that may emerge in the blast zone within 20 minutes or so after the
detonation and could endanger individuals in shelters.
"The distances an individual must travel to evacuate
the fallout zone are not large. Even for a 10-kiloton weapon, a person located
anywhere in the region between the blast site and up to about 10 kilometers (6
miles) downwind of the blast site would need to travel less than 2 kilometers
(1.2 miles) to evacuate the most dangerous fallout area. Even where the
radioactive cloud is at its widest, some 20 to 50 kilometers (10 to 30 miles)
downwind, an individual would only need to travel at most about 5 kilometers (3
miles). In this latter case, more than 10 minutes would be available for
evacuation because it would take some time for the cloud to reach that
distance. Because roads are likely to be impassable for automobiles in many
areas because of damage, debris, or traffic, individuals should evacuate on
foot.
"The primary considerations for this action are knowing
whether one is in an area that may become contaminated by radioactive fallout
and, if so, knowing which direction to take. Fallout is likely to cover a
portion of the blast zone. Thus, anyone in the blast zone, which will be
characterized by severe damage and broken windows even at its outer periphery,
is in danger of contamination from radioactive fallout. The fallout zone will
extend some 20– 80 kilometers (10–50 miles) downwind, depending on the weapon’s
size and the local winds. The downwind fallout zone will be less clearly
delineated than the blast zone, but its approximate location can be determined
by observing the mushroom cloud and the direction in which the wind seems to be
blowing.
"To evacuate from the blast zone, individuals should
move directly away from the blast center until they are clear. The location of
the center will be apparent from the initial bright flash and subsequent vertical
rise of a mushroom cloud. If the location of the detonation cannot be
determined quickly, individuals should walk in the direction of less damage,
where more buildings are standing and where there are fewer broken windows.
"Individuals outside the blast zone who are in the
radioactive cloud path (including those who evacuated in a downwind direction
from the blast zone) should move in a cross-wind direction until out from
underneath the path of the developing radioactive cloud. To determine the wind direction,
individuals should look for the direction that the mushroom cloud or smoke from
fires is going and go perpendicular to it. If they can feel the wind, they
should walk with the wind in their ears.
"Although individuals may not feel any symptoms, those
in the blast zone may have absorbed a high dose of prompt radiation from the
detonation. Thus, we highly recommend that such individuals receive immediate
medical care once outside the fallout area because such care could be essential
for survival.
"2. If it is not possible to move out of the path of
the radioactive fallout cloud, take shelter as far underground as possible or
if underground shelter is not available, seek shelter in upper floors of a
multistory building.
If evacuation is impossible, shelter is essential for anyone
remaining in the path of the radioactive fallout cloud. Radiation from local
fallout can be intense, delivering a lethal dose to an unprotected person in an
area up to 8 kilometers (5 miles) downwind of the detonation within an hour,
depending on the size of the weapon. To protect against this radiation,
individuals should get as much solid material (dirt, concrete, or masonry) and
space as possible between themselves and the fallout, which collects on the
ground and roofs of buildings. The best shelter is well below ground level, in
the sub-basement of a building, a subway tunnel, or the lowest level of an
underground garage. These shelters can reduce exposure levels by factors of
1,000 or higher.
"If an individual cannot get to an underground shelter
within the timelines of the arrival of the radioactive fallout, the next best
shelter would be in the upper floors of a multistory building (greater than 10
stories) but at least three stories below the roof to avoid the fallout
deposited there. Protection is best as far as possible from the outside walls.
Such a shelter can provide protection factors of 100 or higher, but it could be
significantly less if the windows or structures have been damaged.
"Ordinary house basements provide inadequate protection
in areas of intense radioactive fallout because they provide protection factors
of only 10–20. However, at distances greater than about 25 kilometers (15
miles) from the detonation, where the levels of radiation will be much less,
they could be sufficient. Nevertheless, because it could be difficult to know
where you are in relation to the detonation and because the yield of the weapon
is not known, the more shelter the better. In all cases, once inside the
shelter, shut off all air circulation systems and close off doorways and
windows. The room should not be sealed completely, because enough air will be
needed to breathe for at least 48 hours. Individuals should remain in the
shelter and await guidance from officials about when it is safe to leave, which
could take 24 to 48 hours. Individuals should attempt to gain access to their
emergency supply kit for use while in the shelter, but it is better to reach a
good shelter in time without the kit. The ideal shelter would be prestocked
with supplies to support occupants for two to three days.
"3. Find ways to cover skin, nose, and mouth, if it
does not impede either evacuating the fallout zone or taking shelter.
Although radioactive fallout will not begin to land in the
blast zone and surrounding areas for at least 10 minutes, some radioactive
particles and dust are likely to be present from the detonation. Therefore,
individuals should take the precautionary step of protecting themselves from
this radiation. Respiratory protection can be achieved by using particulate
filter masks or other expedient measures, such as covering the nose and mouth
with clothing or towels. (See the discussion in radiological attack section.)
It is important to note that, in contrast to a radiological bomb, the primary
hazard from radioactive fallout is radiation absorbed from outside the body.
Respiratory protection steps, therefore, will provide only limited protection.
As a result, we recommend that respiratory protection be retrieved and donned
but only if this causes no more than a few moments delay in evacuating the
fallout zone or finding shelter.
"The radiation in nuclear fallout consists primarily of
gamma emitters but also includes beta radiation. Protective clothing provides
no protection from gamma radiation, although it can provide significant
protection from beta radiation.
"We therefore recommend covering exposed skin but again
only if it does not impede evacuating or taking shelter. In this context, any
clothing that covers exposed skin and the head is considered protective
clothing. Thus, most fully dressed individuals would only need a hat or hood.
Protective clothing has the additional advantage of facilitating
decontamination by providing a layer that can be quickly removed to dispose of
any fallout material that may have accumulated on a person during evacuation or
prior to sheltering.
"4. Decontaminate as soon as possible once protected
from the fallout. Decontamination can provide protection for anyone who has
spent time in the area of the nuclear blast or the radioactive fallout zone by
eliminating exposure from radioactive particulates (dust) that have adhered to
the body. Decontamination should initially focus on removing outer clothing,
including shoes, and securing it in a bag or other container. Individuals
should minimize contact of radioactive material with skin and eyes by rinsing
exposed skin, removing contact lenses, and showering as soon as possible.
Contaminated clothing should be treated or disposed of in accordance with
official guidance. Decontamination should be undertaken as quickly as possible
but only after an individual is protected from exposure to fallout by
evacuation or sheltering.
"5. If outside the radioactive fallout area, still take
shelter to avoid any residual radiation. Because uncertainty exists about
exactly where the radioactive cloud will travel and where the fallout will
land, it is important for individuals outside the apparent fallout zone to take
shelter. House or building basements should provide sufficient
protection."
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One note on RAND's recommendation to evacuate if at all
possible, rather than sheltering ...
If you have a well-built, well-stocked fallout shelter
within easy reach, I believe reaching that protection is preferable to
evacuation. Why? Because of the uncertainty of what awaits in areas where you
might flee to. In my view, it's far better to take the certain safety of your
shelter over the uncertain circumstances that await evacuees over the horizon.
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