REFUGE BY SAFECASTLE: Crystal ball

There are two ways to sleep well at night ... be ignorant or be prepared.

Showing posts with label Crystal ball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crystal ball. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Market-Meltdown Wake-up Call from Safecastle

This is your wake-up call ... don't snooze
Markets melting down, systems failing, panic spreading

Getting right to the point--the slide toward anarchy may have begun. Global investors are in full retreat. Greece lit the fuse, China spilled the gasoline. Wall Street and the other financial centers around the world are in turmoil. Starvation and panic is already front and center in Greece. In Europe and in Asia, banks and brokerages are unable to help their clients. It's all spreading in rapid fashion and one does not need much imagination to realize what comes soon after the inevitable rioting in the streets.
 
From where we sit--we can tell you with certainty and experience what happens in the preparedness marketplace. Supplies are depleted in no time. Backorders stretch into months. Factories shutdown when raw materials become unavailable. 
 
Bottom line--we can't promise we will be able to help you stock-up once the SHTF.
 
In the meantime, we ARE here, watching the news as closely as I'm sure you are, praying for the best, filling orders, making necessities available at the best prices we can swing.

Note that through July 15, we are still offering up some of our most popular products at extra steep discounts, while they remain available.  
 

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Credibility is Crucial for Preppers

by JC Refuge

Here's a topic that's worth a book … or at least a whole chapter in a behavioral self-help volume. But time is money and no one's paying here, so I'll try to spare us too many of the embellishments and get down to the basics.

Context example in the military/intell community
Long ago and far away, a young intelligence analyst in the field was slaving away at collating and analyzing info collected from all available sources for the weekly general staff briefing. The Warsaw Pact forces across the border were in a definite upswing in exercise activity (which always had an NBC focus). This particular point in time found an unusual massing of East German, Czech, and Russian tank and motorized rifle divisions within several clicks of the border with West Germany. Soviet missile forces were also geared up and hauling their missiles to and fro’ in the countryside. The young analyst sensed that this might be something truly out of the ordinary, given some of his superiors’ obviously increased tension. This was soon confirmed when the Intel Center's full-bird commander took it upon himself to calmly commit his opinion to the general staff that this was the real deal coming down the autobahn … that the proverbial balloon was poised to launch. Interestingly, the general staff seemed concerned, but not at all panicked like a few of their underlings. Nonetheless, they reacted by placing their divisions on an elevated alert status.
The young analyst, through the process of regularly changing his shorts, learned much that week about the games played by the superpowers during the Cold War.
But most enduring of all was the lesson delivered on credibility--how important it is to have it when you need it, and how easily it can be frittered away. The aforementioned full-bird held the respect of the generals and they followed his advice, taking steps to increase defensive preparations for West Germany in case the colonel was right.
Obviously, though, he was wrong. And shortly thereafter, the colonel retired to his spread in Virginia. Be assured … no tears were shed. The colonel was aged beyond his years and had performed his duties well through his accomplished career. In the end, he took responsibility for a move that he felt someone had to make. He had the stuff it took to make things happen, and people would listen to him, so he made the call. Yes, it unfairly cost him some small measure of his accumulated credibility with the general staff, and perhaps hastened the end of his career somewhat, but what good is credibility when you don’t use it when needed?
Or worse yet, what good are you if you don't have any credibility built up to draw from when you come to that point in time when you need people to listen?

Why is YOUR credibility important as a prepper?
OK, so the fate of the free world does not depend on your reading of the signs. And we can all be thankful for that. ;) But by golly, if you have friends and family whom you’d like to be able to influence, either now or later, then your credibility is key. Do you have it with them now? Will they listen and trust you when it's most important that they do? For some of them, the best gift you could give may be reason to respect what you have to tell them.
If your credibility with those closest to you is shot or could use improvement, don’t despair. You’re in the company of thousands of other preppers who could use a credibility boost. It comes with the territory … just like it does in the intelligence business. The good news is that, what you do from this moment forward can serve to begin repairing and managing that credibility so that it’s there when you decide you really, really need it.

If you build it they will come
Credibility is people measuring how deserving you are of their confidence … how capable you are of being believed.
In other words, it's about how you present yourself and your opinions. Yes, you are responsible for how others view you. Take responsibility for it and work on it and you might be surprised at how persuasive you can be with those around you.

Nine real-world tips
... many readily apparent, and maybe a few that aren't for some …
1. Don’t lie. Don’t exaggerate. It will be noted and remembered.
2. Manage your emotions. Even when feeling stressed and feeling an urgency about a situation, stay calm and present your point of view rationally and as matter-of-factly as possible. Don’t be drawn into emotional arguments.
3. Cultivate the belief within yourself that the world is open to many interpretations and outcomes. Respect that and then gracefully grant the right for others to disagree with you.
4. Restrict yourself to sharing info and views that fall within the realm of conventional wisdom. Few “trailblazers” or “out of the box thinkers” ever score credibility points for sharing unconventional thought processes, and those that do often are credited for those points only long after they are dead.
5. Do not “invest in” or commit yourself to any one outcome or analysis. More often than not, it will be wrong. Always couch your presentations in terms like “possible,” “potential for,” “something to consider,” etc.
6a. Present even “important facts” as being interesting to consider, but not critical to embrace, even when you might think otherwise.
6b. Present your analyses/forecasts as being a possible read or outcome; not the only read or outcome.
7. Admit your humanity. When the facts change, openly adjust your thinking.
8. Don't take yourself too seriously. Confidently exhibit a sense of humor about your perspectives.
9. Assume a wise and stoic personna, even when others are expressing views counter to your own. Choose very carefully your opportunities for getting across the most important points. “Evangelists” rarely are seen as credible by most people.

The old-fashioned way
Respect and credibility are closely related … they are both earned with discipline and commitment. You can get by without it, but be aware that you'll be traveling alone.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Can't Face the Future without Your Coffee?

Caffeine fiends, listen up ... here's another chance to be the wily one who's ahead of the curve.

The latest news is that there's a fungus among us down in Central America that is threatening to torpedo the current coffee crop. Read more here.

Marketplace availability of coffee will suffer everywhere and prices--already moving higher recently--will jump again shortly.

As you may know, coffee does not store well unless you vacuum-seal unroasted green coffee beans, so just stocking up on the coffee at your local shop isn't going to work out well for you if youa re looking to get your future squared away with some joltin' java.

The best solution is right here--at a price that has not gone up in at least a year. I'm afraid that these prices will be raised soon due to market forces, and in fact, it may be quite a while before more will be available once the current supply of canned organic green coffee beans from Costa Rica is gone.

In other words, move fast on this and you'll pat yourself on the back. These vacuum-sealed cans store your coffee cache for 20+ years ... and will be as good-tasting down the road once you roast those beans as what you can get fresh-roasted today.

Get your case of green coffee beans today while they last ($153, member price, shipped!).

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Storage Food is Flying Off the Shelves ... Backorders at Various Factories Expected

Consider this a public service announcement and fair warning ...

Such high volumes of storage food orders are being placed to food suppliers over the last week to two weeks that I am pretty sure we're going into another period when storage foods are going to be backordered at the factory. If you recall last year, that can go as long as 5-6 months in no time at all.

Why now? You'd have to poll the buyers to be nail it down, but I suspect any or all of these events are being considered as motivation (I doubt that I need to explain more):  the Hurricane Sandy aftermath, the election, the fiscal cliff, an erupting war in the Middle East.

Stay safe.

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Remember Post-Katrina? Sandy May Also Bring a Huge Prepping Surge

Those of you prepping several years ago in the Hurricane Katrina era may or may not recall how prepping supplies and emergency storage foods went totally out of stock for several months afterward.

FEMA bought everything they could find after Katrina and shipped it all down to the Gulf Coast (and a lot of it went to waste, never to be distributed). No one else could lay hands on storage food or water filters, etc. for weeks and months afterwards.

Then when suppliers did start to get product back out to retailers in volume, the whole prepping industry went into overdrive because the population at large had gotten a wake-up jolt and bought everything in sight as it did come back onto the market--particularly MREs and freeze-dried foods. That subsequent demand surge lasted well over a year and customers were having to wait on average around 6-8 weeks for their orders to deliver during that period.

This post-Sandy situation is beginning to remind me of how things went down in 2005. There are folks still waiting desperately for help. People who are hungry are begging for food. The media is slowly finding the tragic angles. It's getting to be a political issue and fingers are being pointed back and forth.

I don't get the feeling this is of the same scale in terms of human suffering as what Katrina was, so FEMA is probably not going to lay waste to all available inventories of food and preps as they did seven years ago. But what I am beginning to get a sense of is that this is again going to be awakening another large segment of the population out there about how important it is that they take care of their own households before disaster strikes, since clearly you do not want to be waiting for the cavalry to come in to rescue you and yours.

Vic Rantala owns Safecastle, a leading crisis preparedness provider for over 10 years.

Friday, May 04, 2012

Heed the News from Mountain House

Mountain House can prices WILL be going up soon.
Supply inventories WILL be going down.

Safecastle is a major dealer for Mountain House freeze dried food. We have been for almost 10 years. Through that time we've seen several severe swings in supply and demand in the storage food marketplace.

Our history has borne out the value of staying ahead of the hordes with regard to demand surges and supply shortages. We have usually been able to warn and prepare our customers months in advance of what was about to occur in this area.

Today, we received a communication that was sent out to dealers, so here again--a warning for you that you can take under consideration:

Market conditions and capacity issues at OFD (producer of Mountain House) have brought about a decision by the manufacturer to stop building #10 can inventory. Thus, going forward, we expect supply at the retail level for some MH canned food will become challenging, with backorders becoming more common in the very near future again. Over the next few months, the supply and demand situation will become worse. Remember last year? Or a handful of other times in the last decade?

When (not if) the next trigger occurs out there to cause another stampede into preparedness (ala Hurricane Katrina or any number of other recent events), inventories will very quickly be depleted and it will take months to again allow the best quality food producers out to ramp back up in response. I've been in this business long enough to understand the cyclical nature of what is going on, and to see clearly that the next leg down is now in the works.

Another factor that I believe will make this situation a bit worse you, the customer--the number of MH dealers out there is greatly diminished after last year's 6-month MH supply drought.
 
When you boil it all down, we expect to see a return to severe supply and demand volatility in the MH and in the storage food marketplace in general.

I know our long-time customers appreciate getting these kinds of insights from us when they can take advantage. Right now, of course, our MH cans sale is down to our last two days. It really is the best deal available to you in our history and for the forseeable future.

Oh--and we also just got word today that the first backorder has forced us to remove the popular MH Mexican Rice and Chicken entree in #10 cans from our listings--it is unknown when it will be back in production.

Otherwise--everything else is still in stock and shipping out within a week!



Stay safe.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

"US intel: water a cause for war in coming decades"

Looks like I scooped CNBC and their intell sources by almost a week on this story. But I will happily take this confirmation. Note however, that I am not folding "climate change" into my call as they are ...

Excerpt: 
An assessment reflecting the joint judgment of federal intelligence agencies says the risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10 years is minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall.

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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Jim Rogers: Worry About 2013, Panic About 2014



Rogers is staying away from stocks despite the rally; he is investing in real assets.

Read that to mean precious metals, food, real estate.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Economist Williams: U.S. Dollar Selloff Risk is High

Economist John Williams of Shadowstats talks about a potential run-up in prices for precious metals and updates his hyperinflation watch.  He says there is no recovery in the economy and inflation is picking up steam. Read more here.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

"Your Wages Will Be Cut in Half"

Must read from Video Rebel's Blog: "Translating Zero Hedge: Your Wages Will Be Cut In Half"

Excerpt:  "... after the 2012 elections the Russians, the Chinese, Iran, Venezuela plus their clients states and a few other nations can and will force a devaluation of the dollar by refusing to accept Federal Reserve Notes in international trade. If Americans balk, China just has to dump a hundred billion dollars and buy commodities driving the price of food out of the reach of WalMart shoppers. Of course I realize the Chinese will just be doing what the bankers want them to do.

"An international conference will be held at which the dollar will be devalued by about 40% as predicted by Bernanke. This will complete that 50% pay cut I have been predicting.

"The Chinese will have dumped most of their dollars before the conference so that their economy will not be harmed by a dollar devaluation. If Americans can’t afford to buy Chinese products, China will just sell them to people whose currencies were revalued upwards.

"I would suggest you buy storable food, silver coins (not collectibles) and household items that will just increase in cost."

Monday, January 16, 2012

Experts Advise What to Freak Out About in 2012

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2012 report is out. There's plenty to set your hair on fire about. Check the interactive report here.

Some of the biggest concerns:  Chronic fiscal imbalances, water supply crises, severe income disparity, and food shortage crises.

To get the drift in one overall chart, feast your fearful eyes below. (If you are prone to laying awake at night worrying about things, you might want to skip this one.)
World Economic Forum: "Global Risks 2012," an initiative of the Risk Response Network

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Faber: Diversify ... Lucky Ones In 5 Years Will Have 50% of What They Now Have



Safecastle LLC is a leading crisis preparedness provider. Emergency storage food such as Mountain House freeze dried foods, Safecastle steel-plate shelters and saferooms, and other unique survival gear solutions are available at www.safecastle.com

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

A Repeat of the Great Depression is Our Best Case Scenario

President of the Ayn Rand Institute Yoran Brook says that we’re essentially out of solutions for the economic, financial and monetary crisis facing America. He joins The Daily Ticker to discuss the general sentiment from the institute’s recent Atlas Shrugged Revolution dinner, which featured attendees like Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff and John Tamny of RealClearMarkets:
The mood in the room was definitely that this country is heading towards some kind of collapse, some  kind of significant disaster. That everything kind of is lined up and nobody, really, in the political realm, out there in the culture seems to have solutions…

If we look long-term. If we look at the structural problems of the United States, at over $100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities, of ongoing deficits, of no political solutions, of nobody talking about real cuts, where does this all lead?

Unless we have real structural change I think it will [lead to disaster]… Unless you change the approach to government, unless you’re willing to challenge the very notion of what government needs to do, you’re not going to change it in a fundamental way.
…Unless you make a fundamental change in our approach to entitlement, in our approach to government, we can buy time, but we’re not going to change the outcome.

Unless there’s alternatives, unless people come up with real solutions, the crisis could be anywhere from a major economic depression and we learn our lesson and we climb out of it, to what happened to Rome, which really is the dark ages…
…I think we have to remember that…civilizations in human history have declined, they’ve disappeared…Sometimes in human history mankind has gone through long periods of time of just struggling, of it being very hard to survive.


Based on the assessment of Mr. Brooks, and that of other analysts and commentators (including ourselves), our best case scenario appears to be a major economic depression, not a short-cycle 18 month recession (or even double dip), but a long-term cyclical depressionary bust that occurs roughly every 70 – 80 years. It’s not just Yoran Brooks and alternative media that is warning of this possibility, but well respected and influential economists and business figures like Nouriel Roubini, who just today in an opinion piece for Reuters writes, “the risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II,” and George Soros who recently wrote that more centralization is the “only way to forestall a possible financial meltdown and another Great Depression.”

In fact, it is our strong belief that, based on the high rate of unemployment (~23%), food stamp participation (~17%), foreclosures (officially in excess of 4 million home thus far), rising food prices (13.2% annualized), and negative GDP growth (~ negative 2.0%), speaking of  another Great Depression as if it is a future threat is inaccurate.

We are now well within Great Depression territory. It may not seem like a depression to the masses because of modern day digital currencies, centrally planned and managed economies, near tyrannical government control, the power of the global mainstream media to control perceptions, and the never ending bread and circuses doled out by politicians. But, make no mistake, we are already in the midst of Mr. Brook’s ‘best case scenario.’

Our only hope is that it does not go full-on worst-case scenario, because then we’ll be talking about the widespread collapse of entire nations, similar to the Roman example cited.

Author: Mac Slavo
Date: September 20th, 2011
Website: www.SHTFplan.com
Copyright Information: Copyright SHTFplan and Mac Slavo. This content may be freely reproduced in full or in part in digital form with full attribution to the author and a link to www.shtfplan.com. Please contact us for permission to reproduce this content in other media formats.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Casey: "Exiting the Eye of the Storm"

Please read this entire interview of professional investor, author, and financial expert Doug Casey.

Excerpt ...

"I’m not sure that many people really ever believed there was a recovery under way. Wall Street acted like there was – but only somewhat, since banks never started lending again. But unemployment has remained high; it’d actually be about twice the official 9% level, if it was calculated the same way it was 30 years ago. And outside of the price collapse of certain asset classes – like real estate – the cost of living has increased greatly for most people; the calculation of the government’s CPI is as corrupt as its unemployment numbers. I think it’s a mistake to talk about a double dip in the economy; we entered the Greater depression in 2007 and are still in it. A 'jobless recovery' is not a recovery. The only thing that’s recovered is the stock market, to some degree. Aside from government hocus-pocus, the mirage of corporate earnings, and foolish investors wanting to believe it was safe to get back in the water, things have not gotten better. And they are about to get much worse."
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Get Ready ... Seriously -- www.prepared.pro