How to Convince Others

I do wish there was an easy, logical way to persuade others that crisis preparedness is worthwhile. You know ... a one-size-fits-all, three-step process guaranteed to lift the scales from the eyes of the unenlightened.

But alas ...

Common Complaint

If there is one almost-universal complaint I hear from fellow preparedness activists, it is that they are often not able to convince even those nearest and dearest to them that crisis readiness is smart.

For many sailing smoothly through life out there today, the initial, deeply embedded perspective is that only kooks and "racist survivalists" spend any time or money preparing for a disaster that might never come. It's a view that's been cultivated in the public mind by the mass media for decades now. So in spite of the obvious common sense inherent in a balanced approach to being prepped, there is a wall that needs to be breeched for some folks before they'll be able to observe the full horizon.

Indeed, how many of my friends and customers out there have mentioned that they wish they could get through to their spouse, their siblings, buddies, or coworkers, etc.?

The spouse factor alone is seemingly insurmountable for many.

I would estimate that more than half of you who are reading this blog would be hard pressed to convince your spouse or significant other to even have a look at it or at some similarly focused resource. Is that frustrating? Of course it is. In fact, I'm sure most in that boat would be satisfied with just getting a nonverbal, implied, eye-rolling "go-ahead" from their loved one to do whatever is necessary, if not a full fledged, share-the-passion, full-speed-ahead buy-in from them.

Oh, that they could stop having to sneak around, hiding their latest purchases adding to their strategic reserves and stock ... and instead be able to openly share the steadily growing peace of mind their well-considered program is building.

How-To

No, this won't work for everyone, but in my personal experience, this is your best bet. I've been involved in preparedness of various kinds, professionally as well as personally for decades, and with time, you learn that there IS a way to at least get folks to listen to what you have to say.

A few tips for anytime you are first bringing up the issue of preparedness with someone (and perhaps EVERY time you discuss it) ...

1. Lose the emotion. Fear, anger, paranoia ... those are the emotions and "danger signs" many people out there would be looking for in any "nutcase" who would approach them to talk about getting ready for disaster. Show it and the cause is already lost.

Take a calm, non-commital, intelligent tack in which you almost casually relate the view that crisis preparedness is common sense. Be dispassionate, non-threatening ... that's how you need to bring the issue forward. If there is no sign of your companion being in the least bit receptive, drop it. Maybe the next opportunity that arises will be different. Just don't make it an obvious priority in your intereactions with the person.

2. No target-lock on any one threat. This is a big problem for many. It's easy not only to inadvertently zero in on one big threat of the hour when talking about crisis preparedness, it's just as easy to allow it to become all-consuming in one's own actual approach to preparedness. When raising the issue of preparedness, be knowledgable, but not necessarily "expert." Talk about crises in general if that is appropriate, unless your partner is needing to talk over an issue that is bothering them today (i.e., perhaps the Avian Flu at the moment).

Most important, talk about solutions, not the challenges. Trying to scare someone into seeing things your way never works longer term.

3. Don't play oracle, proclaiming THE END. Want to be seen as a crank? Set a date and start telling folks that you know something ominous they don't. Throughout history, dates of doom have come and gone as have their promoters. Even if you see some risk ahead, keep it to yourself until it becomes painfully obvious to even the most obtuse.

4. Don't talk about TEOTWAWKI. See #3. "The End Of The World As We Know It" became a common acronym circa the Y2K computer-scare era. Of course, it is also widely applied to post nuclear-war exchanges, and now even to the bird flu potential. My intended points? Life goes on. And change is inevitable and continuous. To try to counter either of those axioms is to ask to be pigeon-holed into a niche where few can be taken seriously.

5. Drop the mystery about your own preparedness efforts. This is actually more of an indirect benefit to preparedness in general than usually a necessary persuasive tactic one-to-one with someone. Nonetheless, it is worth mentioning here that folks are more easily persuaded by demonstrated action over hollow words. Of course this runs counter to the tendency many have to protect access to and knowledge of their preparedness resources. But to encourage someone else to embark upon a personal campaign toward greater readiness by being more open about your own efforts, is a powerful way to go about it. Use common sense deciding when it might actually prove to be wise to take this path with someone and to what extent.

Fact is, if more folks were forthcoming about their own preparedness efforts, then the public impression that normal people don't do this would be quickly laid to rest.

6. Limit the reference points you share to sources in the "moderate mainstream." There are a lot of very "enthusiastic" parties focusing on specific, peripheral preparedness-related issues. They are off the beaten path and all have their own adherents ... and they do often contribute in their way to crisis readiness in the general population. However, before you refer preparedness prospects to a website or to a book of interest, etc., be sure you consider the kind of first impression they will likely have, given all aspects of that reference work and ALL the content and themes being projected there.

It is probably going to be most effective to carefully present the preparedness mindset to the uninitiated in a measured way, coming at least initially from recognized, respected authorities. Today, federal, state, and local governments are pushing readiness, as are mainstream media outlets. It doesn't take a trip today to http://www.snakeoilforall to start folks thinking about real-world moves they can take to mitigate the risks to their family's well-being.

Peace

On the eve of Thanksgiving, I've pondered many blessings bestowed on America and our people. Choosing one, I am giving thanks this year for the positive effect of the general "peace through strength" approach, proven amazingly effective over several decades.

No, it hasn't always been easy or cost-free. Many of our own have given their lives to keep building a better world, here and abroad. But through an era when weapons of mass destruction have become prevalent, their utility has largely been held in reserve, effectively contributing to a greater global peace than would have dared to be imagined in the mid-20th century.

Personal Peace

I came across this quote, author unknown, that struck me as being especially relevant to those of us who find comfort and satisfaction in being prepared for whatever may come:

Peace.

It does not mean to be in a place

where there is no noise, trouble, or hard work.

It means to be in the midst of those things

and still be calm in your heart.

...

Thanks be to God.

Imminent Preparedness Offerings

These days, as the owner of Safecastle LLC, I've got a few exciting opportunities brewing that translate into compelling offerings for you as discerning preparedness advocates.

ScramKits

First, any day now--a joint-venture partner and I will be introducing a brand new proprietary line of top-quality "bugout bags." They are called "ScramKits"--unique, self-contained units assembled for those who aim to be serious about their disaster readiness--at home, at work, and on the go.

Can't say much more until we launch ... initial available quantities will be limited, so stay tuned.

Pushing NBC Shelters into New Markets

We are also revving up our motors to take our best-available prefabricated steel storm- and fallout-shelters into new markets nationwide. We believe we are experiencing the beginning of a new surge in demand across the country for "steel-plated peace of mind," and we are developing strategies to make our product the recognized shelter of choice for security seekers everywhere.

Our expert builder has of course been fabricating and installing these shelters for FEMA, local communities, corporations, and households for 11 years, all across the lower 48. He's known as the best out there, making a product that will last for 100 years in most conditions. Our offerings meet or exceed FEMA standards in all respects, engineered to withstand storm conditions not even seen on this planet.

One detail of note: We have testimonials in hand that we'll be employing shortly, testifying to our customers safely and comfortably enduring direct hits from destructive storms.

We even have a letter from a customer whose property was subjected to hours of the 160mph eyewall of Hurricane Katrina. His above-ground shelter, installed a few years ago, was not even scratched by the turmoil and flying debris that wreaked havoc across the area, while he and his wife watched TV in air conditioned comfort, their sheltered personal generator humming along throughout.

More details of our plans are confidential, but suffice it to say, the marketplace is ripe for mainstream growth in saferooms and shelters.

New Products, Loyal Customers

We appreciate our growing customer base out there, many of whom come back time and again for our unusual values in preparedness products of all kinds. Right now, some of the very best preparedness product lines on the market continue to experience shortages and are backlogged due to sustained, unprecedented demand. Obviously, there are a lot of folks out there who are suddenly getting on board with the disaster readiness gameplan. Manufacturing and distribution capacities are being strained. But that is not deterring our customers who know what they want and trust that we are the ones who can get it for them.

Our newer large-volume value packs of long-term-storage Mountain House food is a prime example. We offer the best prices out there on our unique extended-period household-sustaining food kits. And although Mountain House is cranking the food out as fast as they can, product demand is keeping our order fulfillment process backlogged and delayed by several weeks. Does that mean some folks are putting off ordering product? Well, if they are, I'm not aware of it, and I'm not sure why they would be. Those who have decided that Mountain House is the best available long-term storage (30+ years) food out there want to get on the shipping lists and get their food stocks in place sooner rather than later, even when that means that a bit of patience is called for.

Another product line we are about to offer our customers--the new award-winning JetBoil personal cooking systems--perfect for emergency food preparation and ideal for preparing Mountain House foods in a hurry and in any conditions. Great for outdoors enthusiasts of all persuasions, we know the JetBoil is redefining adventure cooking and our customers will see it as a must-have.

Busy Times

Those are just a few of the items on our plate these days as we strive to meet the needs of our customers and create new opportunities.

Thank you to all of you who are helping to make it possible. Please let me know of any comments, questions, or suggestions you have.

What Will Be Your Emergency "Currency?"

History has shown that cash is not always king.

In the event of systemic failure on a large scale, traditional means of payment in commerce and trade often become devalued. As an example, in some communities devastated by Hurricane Katrina, a barter economy almost immediately sprang up, to the point where cash was not the currency of choice.

It was reported that gasoline, cigarettes, and beer became the commodities in greatest demand via barter transactions. I suspect that if those communities had been isolated long enough, some other genuine necessities would have risen in comparative value over those items. Think "supply and demand."

Trade Doesn't Halt After a Disaster

Even if you believe yourself to be fully prepared for disaster, I suspect you could still quickly find yourself in serious need of some item or service that was unanticipated. Perhaps it would be specialized medical needs, mechanical parts, or a ride to safety. No one can ever be fully prepared for all possibilities.

That means besides simply stocking up on food and water and prescription meds, the prudent preparer also considers the need to have on hand alternative forms of currency. Depending on what it is, it could serve as needed in the role of household sustenance, neighborly charity, or as a barterable commodity.

The possibilities are endless ... and it might be wise to have several options on hand--quantities based on personal preference and the amount of time you want to abide ...

1. Of course, some good old foldable U.S. currency IS advisable to have on hand in every household. For although it might become less valued in long-term scenarios, it will be far more likely that a shorter term crisis situation would call for this traditional means of payment. (Note that you probably don't want to count on credit card, cash card, or check-writing to be accepted, especially if there are power outages.) Just make sure you have your stash adequately hidden and secured.

2. At the opposite extreme, precious metals such as government-minted gold and silver coinage are seen by many as a longer term, safe store of wealth, easily recognized as a historical basis for trade, readily quantifiable and transportable, etc. If you choose to hold precious metals for the purpose of crisis preparedness, it is advisable that you literally, physically have them in your possession ... again, safely secured.

3. Practical skills and expertise in any number of areas, along with needed tools, can be a tradeable commodity in challenging times. Of course it could be difficult to control the demand on your time in some cases. For instance, medical professionals may be overwhelmed in some locations in worst-case events.

4. Water, and the means to draw it and purify it could prove to be in extreme demand in many events, as city water systems can fail or be compromised. In the massive power failure experienced in the northeastern U.S. and Canada in 2003, the municipal water supply for Cleveland, Ohio, immediately failed, putting at risk a million local residents. A short-term solution is to have pure water stored for your family. Beyond that, if you have a means for purifying water, you could find yourself well ahead of the Joneses, making new friends in the neighborhood you never even knew lived there before. Further, if you have a well with a hand pump or the ability to generate power for an electric well pump, you could find yourself in business and able to acquire whatever necessities you might require in trade.

5. Food quickly becomes a high-demand item in medium and longer-term situations since refrigerated and frozen food that so many count on today can spoil ... in addition, the means for adequately preparing those foods would often be lacking. In fact, we see in the recent hurricane aftermaths how an unbelievable number of families don't bother to have on hand a few days of food of any kind to weather a breakdown in the local grocery and restaurant supply chains. Again, if you have stored, convenient foods in quantity, you are ahead of the game.

6. I hate to mention it again, but substances that people can become addicted to will always be in extreme demand when they are not available at the local markets. Beer, booze, tobacco, and coffee are items you might consider having on hand in some reasonable quantity, even if you don't use them yourself, as commodities for trade.

7. Gasoline is a commodity that can certainly become highly valuable should local supplies become interrupted. The problem is that it is tough to store safely and for any great length of time. It's a good idea to have several gallons on hand for personal emergency usage (treat the gas with PRI-G or the equivalent, rotate it periodically, and keep it outside of your living space and away from sources of ignition). Whether you have a few gallons or you opt to store more, be sure to research and follow local laws and regulations for safety's sake.

8. Anything and everything else can become objects for trade in the right conditions. Consider the scenarios where examples such as these might be in high demand: toilet paper, over-the-counter pain medications, first aid supplies, batteries, flashlights, hand tools, plastic sheeting, cleaning and disinfectant products, personal hygiene items, disposable gloves and masks, firewood, lumber, ammunition, vegetable seeds, lighters, matches, and the list goes on and on.

I'm not advocating you go out and "hoard" anything with an eye toward one day making a killing in an impoverished environment. But simply use some common sense and be aware that even economies are transformed in disasters ... better you are aware and ready.

As I alluded to early on, some of these items would be in such extreme need in some cases that it would be immoral to withhold them from anyone in dire need of them. Most folks would be only too happy to help in their communities in any way possible in a true disaster. Being prepared means you are in that position to help as opposed to being one of the ones seeking someone else willing to give aid.

Salute to 26-Million Military Vets Alive Today

"Ten-hut!"

Active duty and prior service veterans, stand at ease.

The rest of you, listen up.

Today, November 11, is Veterans Day. Historically, it was the 11th day of the 11th month at the 11th hour that the armistice was signed to end WW I. In 1954, Armistice Day became known as Veterans Day, in honor of all Americans who dedicated their lives to the cause of freedom.

The Presidential proclamation read: "Now, Therefore, I, Dwight D. Eisenhower, President of the United States of America, do hereby call upon all of our citizens to observe Thursday, November 11, 1954, as Veterans Day. On that day let us solemnly remember the sacrifices of all those who fought so valiantly, on the seas, in the air, and on foreign shores, to preserve our heritage of freedom, and let us reconsecrate ourselves to the task of promoting an enduring peace so that their efforts shall not have been in vain."

Today, there are 26-million American veterans who are alive to be saluted. That's less than 9% of the resident population. One in 11 out there made the decision to sacrifice themselves in the name of freedom and the American way.

Of course many more never came home--with over 600,000 American military wartime deaths since WW I.

The Backbone of American Readiness

The U.S. military is THE backbone of American readiness ... not only in terms of responding to threats and conflicts, but also in being there in times of need ... recent example: Hurricane Katrina rescue and evacuation efforts were largely accomplished by men and women in uniform. When the need is the greatest, it is our greatest who respond.

Stand tall, vets! Your willingness to put it all on the line for something bigger than yourselves is what has kept our nation and our people at the forefront of history and allowed mankind to overcome its toughest struggles.

http://www.military.com/veteransday

Paralyzed Veterans of America

.

Is Soul-less Western Society Any Match for Passionate, Radical Islam?

It would be clear to most folks that France and the other western European countries, all in all, are far more secular today than most any other nations around the world.

For decades, the joint trends toward European socialism and economic union and parity have been systematically gutting the diverse, traditional cultural traits out of the midsection of European life. Among the vital victims ... nationalistic self-identity, foundational religious belief systems, and value sets that include pride, responsibility, and honor. Italy, where Roman Catholicism remains a core institution, may be less distant down that path.

Most sadly of all, there are no nations today that are effectively resisting the trend toward global, economic homogenization ... it's just that some are more deeply immersed in the drowning pool than others. That point magnifies the potential significance of this observation ...

Sweeping into the Void

If debates on morality--the pros and cons, the ins and outs--were once upon a time the exclusive realm of philosophy eggheads, today we are sentenced to actually live out the futility of life in the abstract without even a basic moral value set in western society. The utopian eggheads have seized the day and we are all now in an inescapably sterile petrie dish.

Of course, basic physics cannot help but make an impact on most any grand experiment, even in social science ... most obvious--into any open vacuum will rush the nearest diffusable mass.

Today, the Muslim value set is engulfing an empty Europe. Unfortunately, there is no room for cross-cultural tolerance or immorality in this emerging force of nature. And the hollow remnants of what once drove a great European epoch in history have NO strength or ballast remaining to withstand the opposing momentum.

The Point

Western society today is farther along in its decline than we may have realized. We are right now being challenged in increasingly violent confrontations on our own territories to find some firm footing where we can stand our ground against an explosively driven culture focused not only on dominating, but destroying all other cultures.

Can there be any hope that it can be done? We cannot even get beyond the philosophical conundrum of defining "enemy" in any certain terms or whether we ourselves are worthy to exist as we understand ourselves. Meanwhile the "poor insurgents" at the gates thrill to blow themselves to smithereens to further their holy pile-driving mission.

It's all a bad dream, this recent history of ours.

Perhaps, but that doesn't mean it can't be fatal. Western culture fell into a deep, dark slumber and eventually we went comatose when we slowly but surely rejected all traditional values and common sense, to include the Judeo-Christian values that gave birth to the 19th and 20th century golden age of enlightenment and increasing plenty for ever growing numbers of people around the globe. Today the economic machinery continues to grind along but we the former masters of destiny lie beneath it, numb, motionless, and vulnerable.

When capitalism was allowed to become THE hollow foundation of it all, displacing the morality of right and wrong, we lost the tensile strength that would continue to hold us up against the winds of time and the oppression of challengers.

Time to wake up.

Executive summary: No moral fiber, no internal standing against attack. Return to and rebuild the immovable force of a spiritual and moral infrastructure or be pulverized by the irresistible object of a passionate onrushing enemy.

Do You Feel It?

A distinct foreboding ... is it weighing heavy right about now?

Without a doubt, there are a lot of folks expressing a bad feeling about things today. In fact, there a lot of people doing more than expressing their feelings ... they're getting downright belligerent.

Whatever it was that first dialed you in on the preparedness wavelength--the tsunami, a hurricane, earthquakes, the war on terror, maybe the bird flu headlines--today it's clear that anxiety in the global population is approaching a whole new peak.

Are you playing on key in that orchestra?

Cultural Demolition

This week, it seems we could be witnessing the emergence of a whole new French revolution on the other side of the pond, and it's making all our European friends nervous. What most amazes me about it at this point--that there remains a stalwart, blind refusal by many authorities there to acknowledge that this is at all an "Islamic" issue ... that it is instead, a class or poverty problem. I suspect that if this fire is quenched for the time being, it will be by a deluge of official blame swallowing--for allowing conditions to exist where people can become dissatisfied with their lives. Reparations anyone? Of course, that won't do a thing toward forestalling the real simmering conflict that threatens at some point to fully dissolve Europe as we know it.

Neither Here nor There

Fact is, over here, I've been concerned for some time about the state of our own social fabric in the U.S., and this is not at all an Islamic thing. Nor do I think it a class or poverty issue.

For years now, across demographics, tempers and outlooks have been fraying around the edges. I truly believe it's really only a symptom. The deeper, core issue that is eating us up from the inside out is about a loss of mutual respect, and an absence of self-respect due to a void we have hollowed out within.

While tolerance and compassion are popular buzzwords in society, the reality in personal interactions is that even simple courtesy is now unusual. In public life, in the media, in commercial entertainment, conflict and brutality are celebrated. Morality is denigrated.

Traditional values and wisdom gained through centuries and generations have been torched. Anti-authoritarianism and anti-conservatism are guiding lights for increasing numbers. The empty vessels are being filled to the brim with venom.

Politics? Never pretty ... but today old rules are only there to be broken.

Leaders? Conventional wisdom says greed and ego are the only motivations, so the ones accepting responsibility are tatooed over with the big crosshairs. Why would anyone of character want to try to endure the crossfire today?

Everywhere we turn, self-indulgence is god. Salvation by way of damnation ... the foundation of all good ad campaigns ... Madison Avenue reigns supreme. Market share is the currency of life.

Spirituality? Hah! It is vile if it is not in fact properly evil first.

Build Your Strength

So what do we do? Start with number one. Prepare yourself and your household for times that promise to only plumb deeper levels of despair.

Ideologies of anti-God / pro-secular chaos beat paths toward total anarchy, followed by a merciless annihilation of all that still coarses true.

If you are to endure and remain well-rooted, increase your inner resolve. Do not be easily steered. Tightly embrace the ways that guided your parents and grandparents ... that provided a righteous role in history for them ... that allowed you the blessings so many are determined to undermine for your children.

Heroes are not called for. Solid fathers and mothers and brothers, sisters, and friends are what are needed. Be an example.

Be true.

H5N1--Contact Your Local Government Authorities

In my previous post, I indicated that I was comfortable with where my household preparations are in terms of the threat of an Avian Flu (H5N1) outbreak in the human population. That much IS true. Where I am uncomfortable in that regard is where my city and county governments are in relation to this potential threat.

Fortunately we live in a country where we as citizens have the ears of our governmental decisionmakers.

I was in dialogue this morning again with my city manager. To date, our city has their disaster contingency plans largely rooted in the Y2K build-up. It seems our particular local government is at this point pretty satisfied with their capabilities because of the work they put into that.

However, I have been encouraging them to again be proactive for this very serious threat on the horizon. In fact, I am offering my own time and energy to assist in planning and procurement if they will decide to stay ahead of the curve and not wait till the virus is actually going head to head in the human population ... at which point there will be nothing anyone can do anywhere to make adequate logistical moves. By then, the recent post-hurricane buying frenzies that quickly depleted critical supply lines will seem like a fond memory.

THE Most Important Preparation You Can Make for H5N1

The way I see it, there's not even a close second in terms of preparing for a pandemic ... the most important steps that need to be taken are the ones local government authorities must take to ensure their citizens are adequately provided for in terms of food, water- and heat-utility contingency plans, medical care and emergency response capability, and quarantine enforcement issues, among others.

The time to do all of that is right now. If tomorrow's headline reports H5N1 is spreading human to human in Asia, then it's already too late to do much of any consequence in preparing locally in the U.S.

If your government hasn't done their job in this regard by that point, your local situation is going to be worst-case ... and that is very bad news, regardless of whatever personal preparing you have done.

Ultimately, YOU are responsible for how your government will take on this challenge, if at all. There's not anything you can do that would be more constructive than to contact your local governmental authorities right now. Make sure they know that you expect them to pay attention to the threat. Better yet, volunteer to be of whatever help you can be in planning your local response to a burgeoning pandemic.

The official document: National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza

A relevant link: Story on President Bush's Speech Today on the Likely Pandemic

Another link of interest: Homeland Security Chief Puts the Burden and Responsibility for Being Prepared on People

Check-in

Just a quick mind-set check today ...

Feeling good. No great worries.

As always, I'm keeping an eye on the horizon. But with my household's crisis preparations in order, I'm comfortable enough with current global, national, local, and personal situations.

On the longer-term radar screen, I've flagged the H5N1 avian flu threat as one to keep an eye on. But again, we're squared away for having on hand what our family would need if the worst happens in that regard, so all we can do is wait to see if anything comes of it ... and if it does, we're about as ready for it as we can be.

Farther down the list of potential threats ... winter is right around the bend here in Minnesota. It's not normally anything to whimper about, but this year we do have some interest in how high heating costs will be. We have some alternatives in that regard at our place so we'll be OK, but of course we're hoping natural gas prices will be lower than projections for the sake of all in the northern climes ... so it doesn't become a back-breaker for too many.

And oh yes ... on a personal level, my dear wife has some issues, as do all employees there, with her longtime employer--Northwest Airlines. I won't start spewing in that direction here. But of course, the economic outlook / personal financial stability is a key focus for most of us. We'll be needing to make some adjustments here one way or the other, but God willing, we'll be fine. I have a few different income streams, but the one that is of most interest and holds my greatest focus is my crisis preparedness business--Safecastle LLC. Preparedness in general out there in the US population is gaining momentum, and it's rewarding to be able to play some tiny part in it.

Is it time for one of your own situational self-assessments?

Stay safe. Be prepared. Enjoy your day!

"People Had Ample Time to Prepare"

Once again we see how, in spite of the best "parental" FEMA intentions and the reasonable extent to which logistical prepositioning was done, folks in a disaster area are left sucking wind if they were ill-prepared to take care of themselves for a time. (Yes, "reasonable" prework AND post-storm efforts ... how much should people out there really expect to be babied anyway? -- Sincere apologies to those who indeed suffered losses of all their preps in Hurricane Wilma ... but I suspect much of the current demand is by folks who have no business seeking governmental assistance at this point.)

Certainly the downwind recovery efforts from any major hurricane are always going to be tough. But the lesson to be learned over and over again is that a little personal preparation can go a long way.

Even "minor" hurricanes demand that folks in affected areas be situated under the assumption that for a few days at least, they will be without power and/or a means of getting food and water.

How much is it to ask of folks to have a few days worth of food and water in their homes? That should be a minimal threshold of readiness for all of us wherever we live, at any given time. But in the crosshairs of a hurricane, it's criminally insane to blow off the logic in getting yourself squared away if you're not already.

Check out this short news article ... Miami: Emergency Supplies are Dwindling.

Governor Jeb Bush said that people waiting in line for hours seeking relief should have done more to prepare for the storm. "People had ample time to prepare. It isn't that hard to get 72 hours worth of food and water."

Emergency-Food-Provider Capabilities are Again (or still) Straining to Respond

Still another lesson for all of us ... how quickly our just-in-time supply lines are emptied of capacity of the most urgently needed items when a surge in demand is realized.

Emergency foods of all makes and models out there in the U.S. have been on backorder since Katrina. Wilma will once again tax our capability to provide buyers of emergency foods what they need in the short term. And if another disaster strikes soon, we'll be heading into a period that I would characterize as a longer-term supply crisis.

If you are in need of bolstering your own emergency food stores, I'd advise you get on someone's waiting list now. Don't wait. It's possible the list will get longer yet before it shrinks back to normal.

Modulating the Cycles of Anxiety

First, to our friends, relatives, and all the rest in Florida--our prayers are being offered up for your safe passage through Hurricane Wilma and the aftermath. Certainly you are encouraged to contact me for any assistance I might be able to give in your recovery efforts.

Folks who are fairly new to crisis preparedness are susceptible to potential-threat-immersive breakdown. It's not an insignificant danger, as anxiety always takes a toll, and if you fail to manage your exposure and/or learn to cope, you can easily lose control.

This much is a given ... there are ALWAYS many risks and threats to your safety out there to be aware of. The news media and government authorities will often elevate one or more into clear focus at any given time in ways that are necessary to provoke desired (and occasionally unanticipated) reactions in public opinion and in organizational or legislative activity.

Sometimes, Mother Nature plays headline editor, as we have seen this fall with the record hurricane season that is still not finished. Major earthquakes periodically jolt us into being reminded of the seismic activity continuously underfoot. Of course, last year the tsunami in the Asia Pacific region raised our awareness of another natural danger to those living near the planet's coastal shorelines. And let us not ignore the current fearsome threat soaring through the highest echelons--a potential Avian Flu pandemic.

One of the worst everpresent dangers out there is mankind itself. Among such consequences of living together in a progressive society, we deal with the specter of technological/industrial accidents, terrorism, ethnic and cultural strife, international arms proliferation, and growing gang-related crime, to name just a few.

No Telling WHAT Could Ruin Your Whole Day

Of course those are just some of the big-picture disasters one might be concerned with. There are a whole range of personal-level eventualities that could one day touch our lives and cause grief or hardship.

The thing is, it's quite possible that one who is vulnerable to anxiety (isn't that really all of us?) can easily be sucked into the vortex of fear, as the latest elements of danger swirl about our consciousness, to then be added to the growing pile of worries accumulating at our feet.

Voracious newshounds are particularly vulnerable--the news industry is all about bad news. If there isn't a terrifying story happening, then there's always one to be manufactured about what COULD happen.

It's not easy to walk the line of being aware and prepared while keeping it all from becoming an internal driver in your life that will one day eat you from the inside out. You need to be able to erect a wall within that will allow you to keep an eye on the world, and make responsible, informed decisions that can mitigate your household's future risk ... while isolating it all from your emotional center of being.

Ideally, it should be like business. Business is business, preparedness is preparedness. Nothing personal, but we want to simply do what needs to be done, then go home at the end of the day to our real life--the one that is already in motion, occuring all around us in real time.

For many of us, crisis preparedness is a necessary evil. We know bad things happen and it's actually an effective therapy to have adequate gear, knowledge, and plans in the backroom should they ever be needed. But just like many other "feel-good" choices out there, it can be overdone and can potentially take control of our lives.

We don't want to live in the backroom with our gear and our fear. Keep it in its place and then go do what you've always done before--enjoy life.

Future Revolutions

Preparedness is all about anticipating future possibilities. You don't need to determine whether events or developments are probabilities or longshots, you just want to know that there is a reasonable chance of their occurence, thereby justifying in your own mind a logic in positioning yourself appropriately. In this blog entry, I depart a bit from the standard disaster-planning angle. Instead, I offer up a different view of the future that might be worth considering. The way to prepare for that potential future is to commit to a personal principle of open-mindedness; fighting the urge to pre-conceive the world as you want it to be (while maintaining the ability and willingness to stand up for what is right).

You ever wake-up to one of those "aha" revelations that suddenly put things into a whole new perspective for you?

This morning was one of those moments for me, though admittedly at the time, it seemed a bit more clarifying than it does now. Still, it is worth addressing here. I figure this personal realization was largely the result of two things that I had been exposed to in the previous 24 hours, somehow bringing about a bit of a subconscious convergence of information ...

First--I had read (or at least scanned) the current Time magazine issue's, "The Road Ahead," one of those panel-of-geniuses-discussing-future-trends kinds of articles. I found it particularly obtuse and unsatisfying. But nonetheless, it got me once again stewing over our global direction.

Second--last night I was able to watch much of a PBS program, "Three Presidents, East of the Blue Ridge" on how Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe, "enlightened" Virginia neighbors and friends, had become core founding fathers to ideas that changed the course of history. Interesting points addressed included the fact that they embraced the newest technologies of the time to run their plantations. So also, they together actively endeavored to combine classical insights with the latest range of knowledge, creating a degree of higher awareness that brought about the birth of a new nation.

Continuing Revolutions

As much as many of us would like to believe that we can hold fast to the ideals that over 230 years ago created the United States of America, time itself proves otherwise. I mean to emphasize that we are no longer a nation in and of ourselves ... and popular ideas and practices are not the same as what they were 20 years ago, let alone what they were over 200 years ago.

We are today inextricably interconnected among global cultures everywhere via commercial technologies. Of course, most significantly it is the global economy that is spreading and solidifying that connectivity more everyday (for an excellent look at where we stand today, see "The Pentagon's New Map").

Personally, I've never been a fan of globalization, but by now there's no turning back. To deny that we are global citizens on the fast track to erasing all types of nationalistic boundaries is to put oneself at a serious disadvantage in dealing with reality. It's not coming; it's here, and we're getting in deeper as we speak.

A World Without Borders?

International boundaries will remain on our maps for a while. Maybe for a long while. But the reasons for their being there are diminishing and their practicality will one day be universally challenged.

Perhaps we can still prevent the United Nations from becoming anymore of an albatross to our existence than it already is, but one way or the other, we're finding our way into a whole 'nother understanding of our time and place. (Heck, you need look no further today than how wars are not even about nations at odds with each other anymore. Assymetetrical warfare of the 21st century is about enemies confronting each other over ideas via economic and cultural tactics, confrontations in neighborhoods some of them share, and attacks in cyberspace.)

Let's face it--technologies, maps, cultures, and governments are historically ever-changing. Today, technologies are enabling an exponential acceleration in our societal evolution, and ultimately national boundaries are obstacles that will be fully overwhelmed and erased. Most people in America today still get bogged down in the nationalistic aspect of globalization, as there ARE supremely important issues of self preservation and self determination at stake. But unfortunately, denial is not an adequate strategy or defense.

United "States of Awareness"

This is where my light bulb was illuminated. Maybe the following new context for life has already been obvious to others, but to me, it's become an imminent possibility that opens up a whole different way of anticipating what our tomorrows may be like--or at least our children's tomorrows. And given current realities, I do see it as being a very real revolution.

Let's assume that life goes on for a few years uninterrupted by any MAJOR international conflict, or by a global pandemic that totally reshuffles the deck, or by a major asteroid strike, or a deep economic depression, etc. Corporate interests and investor profits continue to dominate governmental agendas. The economy and the environment make periodic demands of us to make adjustments in how we deal with day-to-day life. We as people are motivated by self-serving causes.

In other words, "the business of big business" continues to fuel the global economy, while the people of the planet buy into all the latest technological marvels. Apart from occasional limited-attention-span diversions, the global population becomes more and more self-absorbed, often enabled by the technologies out there that they can plug into.

In a sense, consumerism and technological advances often centered on the entertainment industries become unifying experiences for the peoples of the world. Inevitably, as they already have been, traditional cultural barriers continue to blur. "Crossover" relationships between people of various backgrounds are increasingly enabled by the internet and similar connections, and markets and constituencies become less about geography and more about common interests.

Think about that. It's already evident that one of the most powerful results coming about out of the internet's discussion forum and blogging cultures is that people of similar beliefs and interests find each other, sometimes magnifying their individual power to accomplish things by more than a factor of two, just by virtue of the connection between them. When larger groups bound by a shared passion come together online, potential for dynamic action becomes significant, even across artificial borders.

But while there are obvious unifying possibilities in technology, so too are there possibilites, even tendencies, for inflating the inevitable clashes ... with the chance for conflicts of epic proportions.

Bottom line, I'm talking about influence over the hearts and minds of people everywhere. Are we susceptible to purposeful mind control through our media? Yes. Unquestionably, that will always be a risk. But we may be most vulnerable to our own viewpoints, if that makes any sense.

Wars of Words and Ideas

I suspect that a reasonable conclusion is that this coming together of minds from around the world will not result in a single homogenized perspective. Indeed, I believe the greater potential is toward a proliferation of fervent special interests and a subsequent empowerment and enflamed wars of words and ideas ... wars that can erupt anywhere and everywhere, flashing across traditional borders.

It's a human trait ... we naturally are attracted to other people who think much like we do. We tend to congregate and reinforce those common viewpoints, often to the exclusion of strong counterpoints, or at least straining our capacity to tolerate them.

Talk politics or religion or ethnicity or even money and taxes--these are the kinds of topics that can spell trouble. Interest groups of this ilk naturally find inspired passions among participants. It doesn't take much to stoke the fires of discontent within a like-minded group if there is adequate fuel to pour.

Does it matter if the group is not a physically gathered mob? I believe there are many folks who can draw energy from online associations, for good or for bad. In the right situations, if a cause is justifiable in the minds of those who support it, the power of online suggestion and reinforcement can be considerable. The end result? Potentially, widely scattered unrest that can, if prevalent enough and focused enough, quickly bring about system failures throughout society and perhaps even pockets of anarchy. I suspect the greatest danger from something like this would come about as a follow-on to some other event that previously weakens the society's infrastructure.

Unify or Divide?

My main point is that as physical, geographic boundaries become less relevant, and national loyalties fade away, people will find common bonds with others who share interests and passions and viewpoints. As they develop those personalized bonds, they naturally become more exposed to emotional manipulation on various levels.

Potential for the development of countless, interspersed "nations" of special interests mainlining specialized information designed to incite discord creates a dynamic for the future that is worth thinking about.

Is it farfetched? I think not.

Why Survive?

There are a good many people out there who, when faced with the option of preparing for major calamity, literally ask, "Why would I want to survive something like that?"

Indeed, it's a fair question that all of us ought to periodically give some attention to because I think it just might help some folks regain a more balanced footing in their approach to preparedness.

Survivalist Caricature Issues

I tend to avoid use of the word "survivalist" because in the group mind of the general public, it conjures images of extremist behavior and attitudes. I even hate using the word "extremist" because it too carries unfair connotations which, in some cases at least, do good people serious injustice.

Still, on a sidenote--today our world IS all about imagery, reputation, and popular acceptance. Not that everyone admits that or gives in to play by those rules. But if any person, product, movement, or viewpoint is going to get any traction out there today, they're going to need some positive media coverage, a well-organized lobby or PR campaign, and maybe an advertising budget.

The closest thing to any of that the crisis preparedness or survivalist movement has had going for it has probably been the NRA. And obviously, the guns and hunting rights movement is at best a second cousin, twice-removed, from the far wider ranging issues that relate to disaster readiness.

So it's no wonder that up until recently, positive press for "survivalism" has been non-existent. If I would cast any blame for that it would be toward liberal media and education-policy powers who seized the initiative back in the '80s when racist militia groups were an easy target for left-wing anti-gun movements. Since then, the rap largely stuck and even expanded and became more deeply rooted. As an example, Marxist-based factions have gone so far as to become strongly focused on destroying one of the great original preparedness organizations--the Boy Scouts of America.

Like many other traditional, conservative targets out there, crisis-preparedness adherents passively endured (or not, as certainly many shied away from being part of anything controversial) the cheap shots.

But now, recent catastrophes have unavoidably shown the uncommon wisdom in being ready for hell or high water. And at last, we have none other than Uncle Sam footing the bill for disaster readiness PR campaigns. The times they are a changin'.

Still

Some of those in recent years who have maintained the readiness way of life have often, unfortunately, fit the bill in terms of reflecting the image the press has portrayed us all with. You know the stereotype--right-wing, "fundamentalist Christian," white male, reclusive gun-toting conspiracy nut living for the day when society collapses so they can at long last shake their fists and cry "I told you so."

Yes, there are many such characters out there, though I'd have to say that a strong majority of those integrating preparedness into their lives today are NONE of the above.

Thankfully, most folks are able to maintain a healthy balance in their approach to readiness and not go off the deep end. They "blend." They are the guy or girl next door. They are you.

Back to the Question

Why would most people who are striving to be ready for a disaster want to survive it? Seems like a dumb question, but it really is a core issue for many.

Some would say they are survivors. They are tough and bound to fight through whatever life dishes out.

Many do it for love of family.

Others hope to show themselves as being ahead of the curve, somehow smarter than most people, and are ready and anxious to show those others up.

A few quite simply are afraid to die or suffer, and see terrible risks out there all around.

There are a lot of reasons for wanting to survive whatever is coming down the pike. I want to suggest that folks periodically truly look at their own reasons and determine whether they are comfortable with them.

For instance ...

Do you secretly look forward to a collapse of the system, when the slate will be wiped clean and you'll get a fresh start?

Do you trust no one and fearfully guard your mindset and your preparations so that you will not ever have to share of what you believe or the supplies you have stored?

Have you become fearful or suspicious of any type of authority to the point of coming close to filling someone's definition of being a closet anarchist?

Ninety percent of the folks out there will not even have gotten to this point in this blog post before moving on because this all is so far off their reality screen. And that's good. But for the few who feel a twinge--of anger or confusion or sadness--give it some more thought.

My point is that preparing for crisis should not be about selfishness. Or vindictiveness. Or even about fear.

Surviving just to continue breathing seems like such a pointless exercise if we plan on doing it to the exclusion or expense of others. In fact, I have to believe it still means a lot to be an American. We are Americans together, not apart.

So much better it would be on the other side, wouldn't it, if we are able to have done what was needed for all we are in a position to help, while maintaining a high order of principle, just allegiance, personal honor, and faithful conscience?

No?

CFR Discussion Transcript on the Threat of Global Pandemics

If you are looking for one document out there that effectively gets its arms around most of the seismic details surrounding the potential H5N1 pandemic--this is it.

In mid-June of this year, a panel discussion sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations was conducted involving some of the topmost medical minds on the planet. These folks are responsible for bringing the flu front and center on global agendas, and they are making it happen with an urgency that speaks volumes.

Take the time to read this transcript, top to bottom, and you will know just about as much about the risks and dangers we face from a global pandemic as anybody out there who is fighting on the front lines to make sure the world does its best to get prepared for it.

Bottom line ... we need time ... several years in fact before the worst-case pandemic occurs if we are to have any chance of allowing our way of life to emerge unchanged. Failing that, all bets are off.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/8198/threat_of_global_pandemics.htm

What Would Be an Overreaction at this Point to H5N1?

For the last few years, there have been credible voices in the wilderness, sounding warnings about a coming flu pandemic. Dr. Michael Osterholm has famously used the apt analogy of being in Iowa, watching a tornado touch down 35 miles away, and then having to watch it keep coming ever closer, mile by mile.

The danger in this approaching storm, according to Osterholm, is that one simply cannot imagine a force with a capability of doing more damage to modern society than what a worst-case pandemic could unleash upon us.

The destructive power of the H5N1 supercell bearing down on us is potentially immense--and we're not just talking in terms of human lives lost.

Yes, there's still room for prayer and realistic hope that this "bird flu" virus will not make the final genetic adaptations to allow for rapid human to human communicability ... or that even if it does, it will lose some of it's lethality, which right now is off the charts in terms of being over 50% fatal to those infected, even with the best medical care available.

Dr. Osterholm has been warning of a viral storm sweeping across the planet that not only kills, but just as callously collapses the economic pillars of society in its wake.

Some folks HAVE been watching the stormcells approaching, since even before H5N1 first appeared on the radar screens in 1997 in Asia. We've been due and now overdue for the next great global flu pandemic, and this particular flu strain is looking very much like it is about to assume that mantle. It is possible it will become the most deadly flu strain to strike mankind in history, unless it suddenly, somehow, weakens as it mutates into the human scourge it seems destined to become.

Presidential Mention Draws Public Attention

At President Bush's October 4 press conference, he spoke at some length about the "important" topic of how we must plan and be proactive in anticipation of the H5N1 virus now. Subsequently, the media has embraced the subject with the usual fervent stampede afforded any "story of the hour" more relevant than, say, a Brittney Spears brassiere auction or a Michael Jackson facial suction.

For once, the public attention being drawn to H5N1 is warranted in my view, and not at all overdone as a few pundits are now moaning. Of course, in short order, the media WILL shift en masse and move viewers' attention away to whatever is next on the playbill. But folks will be well-advised to accept that this flu story will not disappear until one way or the other, the virus is rendered a "has-been."

So can we overreact to the threat? I suppose we can--particularly as individuals if we allow ourselves to become too focused on the pandemic possibility, at the expense of giving proper due to our normal day-to-day obligations and to our loved ones. Balance and calm is always key.

I need to be clear--there certainly are things we should all be doing now to prepare our households for a pandemic (see previous posts), should it actually occur. Moreover, governmental (federal, state, and especially local) and corporate authorities should be swarming all over this for as long as it takes to be fully prepared ... and we would all be wise to make sure they know about their constituents' expectations in this area. Lastly, the major media need to do the responsible thing and keep the heat on this story to make sure everything IS done that CAN be done to minimize risks before all we are left with is forced reactive measures that are never going to be as effective as they could have been.

Are YOU Overreacting?

It seems that even with the media's saturation/infatuation with the glorious gloom and doom of H5N1 for over a week now, there are still relatively few naysayers among them standing up. That is another indicator of how preparedness in general is becoming more widely accepted. Yes, there are plenty of efforts underway to try to properly downgrade the doom factor, and that's understandable since no one wants the scare to prematurely deflate the already shaky economy ... which by the way will ultimately be the most significant and impactful victim of a deadly pandemic--possibly killing as many in the end with its collapse as the virus would accomplish all by itself.

So are we overreacting?

No, not as a nation or as communities within that nation. A pandemic of the magnitude that is potentially on the doorstep is a bonafide threat to our way of life. And to this point, we are woefully unprepared to endure it. It would be very difficult to imagine how we could collectively overreact to the threat (although the folks who gleefully accused Y2K preventive efforts as being a "cry wolf" boondoggle would no doubt be quick to point fingers if this disaster is averted).

Individually, we need to keep a close eye on things and be sure we are taking the prudent steps to give our families a fighting chance should the virus make that fateful leap into the human population. But realize, just as with most other threats worth taking steps to mitigate, a pandemic is not at all a sure thing yet. And we are each best-served if we remind ourselves that we are limited in how much control we can ever actually exert over our futures.

Live today, prepare for tomorrow, but never obsess over what MIGHT be down the road.

If you can do no more than to simply embrace life and love today, then you are ahead of the game.

Personal Pandemic Preparedness Plan

A rather convincing, fairly succinct overview on the potential avian flu pandemic and a basic plan for dealing with it was posted at http://www.curevents.com/ by "Snowy Owl."

For those who may be at a loss for what to do in the face of such an ominous threat, read it (see link below), print it out, and start a systematic approach to preparing your family--today.

(Important note: there are a few things I would add or change in the plan, but the most urgent point would be to try now to acquire Tamiflu from an international pharmacy while it is still available. Be advised that some professionals are now saying 16 capsules per person may be necessary for H5N1--not the 10 most flus require.)

The article was compiled/authored by "Shaman", (dragonfly3@msn.com), and originally made available by request in August 2005, on the "WorldChanging" blog.

It can now be seen in it's fully formatted version at http://www.geftakysassembly.com/Articles/NewDirections/Pandemic.htm

One snippet:

ASSUME A PANDEMIC WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR FUTURE

The time to begin planning is NOW. Conditions are right for H5N1 to emerge as a pandemic, and the spread of this virus among humans could begin at any time. Waiting for the World Health Organization to announce the pandemic has begun may not leave you enough time to accomplish many of the items outlined in this plan. When people do begin to take the threat seriously, there is apt to be panic and frenzied buying as worried individuals rush to stores to begin their own stockpile purchases. Avoid panicked crowds and stockpile necessities NOW. Additionally, once the virus does reach America, standing in a grocery line with dozens of other people increases your risk of potentially coming into close contact with infected individuals.

A Pandemic Could Require Three Years Worth of Preps

One of the nation's foremost epidemiologists is Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Associate Director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, and Professor at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health.

He has for years been leading the battle for public awareness of the imminent pandemic.

Dr. Osterholm has many times been quoted as saying that a pandemic could result in a collapse of the global economy and absolutely devastate our modern way of life. He estimates one to three years of preparations on governmental and organizational levels will be required to weather the storm. His learned warnings are quoted on media sites everywhere and one need only search "Osterholm, pandemic" to quickly amass more than enough insight into the situation the world is faced with.

"Preparing for the Next Pandemic" is one recent essay of his that is a particularly insightful look at how things could suddenly go south around the globe ...

Executive Summary: If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.

For the complete eye-opening essay by Dr. Osterholm, see it here, published late this summer in Foreign Affairs.

Do It Now

Needless to say, households are as needy for such preparedness levels as organizations, if not more so.

Please consider the immediate need to assess your family's ability to survive a collapse of "the system" --a collapse that could very well be of unimaginable historical proportions. The world is suddenly sitting up and taking notice--you need to do the same.

Three initial, main steps you need to take, among many others that should follow:

1. Acquire some Tamiflu for your family--find an online source now and pay the money. It will soon not be available at any price. Also, stock up on Sambucol. These represent our best bets at this point to survive an H5N1 pandemic.

2. Have on hand enough stored food (and the ability to provide your family with drinking water) to be able to survive at least a year. According to Dr. Osterholm, THREE years might be the prudent baseline. Here is an excellent Food Storage Calculator that can help you assess what you need to sustain your household for up to 36 months (Thank you to "Doctor Fungcool" for the link).

3. Give some long, serious thought to whatever other specifics your family would need to endure three years of what might be something akin to isolation at best, and at worst, basic subsistence in a world much more dangerous and unstructured than it is now.

This is not about losing one's sense of balance. Quite the opposite. This is right now an opportunity to take advantage of a loud warning we are being given, though it is still somewhat muted due to the need to prevent widespread chaos and panic. The time WILL come when anarchy becomes the rule, if this pandemic comes calling. Your goal should be to avoid that mess by doing the necessary legwork right now.

President Bush on the Possibility of Military-Enforced H5N1 Regional Quarantines

I would judge the potential for a global flu pandemic to be the most pressing risk we face at this point in time. It's telling that today in President Bush's press conference, he spoke at some length on the matter. He even acknowledged that outbreaks in the American population could call for military-enforced regional quarantines ... scary stuff when you think about it.

My hat's off to him for helping to bring this to the fore while folks still have some time to prepare.

Below are his comments with regard to the danger of H5N1 breaking out into the human population. The full transcript can be read at the washingtonpost.com.

QUESTION: Mr. President, you've been thinking a lot about pandemic flu and the risks in the United States if that should occur. I was wondering, Secretary Leavitt has said that first responders in the states and local governments are not prepared for something like that. To what extent are you concerned about that after Katrina and Rita? And is that one of the reasons you're interested in the idea of using defense assets to respond to something as broad and long-lasting as a flu might be?

BUSH: Yes. Thank you for the question. I am concerned about avian flu. I'm concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world.

I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it.

The policy decisions for a president in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult.

One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?

It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu.

And who best to be able to effect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have.

I noticed the other day, evidently, some governors didn't like it. I understand that. I was the commander in chief of the National Guard and proudly so. And, frankly, I didn't want the president telling me how to be the commander in chief of the Texas Guard.

But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: Wait a minute, this is an important subject.

Secondly, during my meetings at the United Nations, not only did I speak about it publicly, I spoke about it privately to as many leaders as I could find, about the need for there to be awareness, one, of the issue and two, reporting -- rapid reporting to WHO, so that we can deal with a potential pandemic.

The reporting needs to be not only on the birds that have fallen ill, but also on tracing the capacity of the virus to go from bird to person to person. That's when it gets dangerous: when it goes bird, person, person.

And we need to know on a real-time basis as quickly as possible the facts so that the world scientific community can analyze the facts and begin to deal with it. Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins.
As you know, there's been a lot of reporting of different flocks that have fallen ill with the H5N1 virus. And we've also got some cases of the virus being transmitted to a person, and we're watching very carefully.

Thirdly, the development of a vaccine. I've spent time with Tony Fauci on the subject.

Obviously, it would be helpful if we had a breakthrough in the capacity to develop a vaccine that would enable us to feel comfortable here at home, that not only would first responders be able to be vaccinated, but as many Americans as possible, and people around the world.

But, unfortunately, we're just not that far down the manufacturing process. And there's a spray, as you know, that can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease, which is in relatively limited supply.

So one of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?

In other words, can we surge enough production to be able to help deal with the issue?
I take this issue very seriously, and I appreciate you bringing it to our attention.

The people of the country ought to rest assured that we're doing everything we can. We're watching it. We're careful. We're in communications with the world.

I'm not predicting an outbreak. I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it. And we are. And we're more than thinking about it, we're trying to put plans in place.

And one of the plans -- back to where your original question came -- was, you know, if we need to take some significant action, how best to do so. And I think the president ought to have all options on the table to understand what the consequences are -- all assets on the table, not options -- assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant.