What is life, if not an adventure? What is an adventure without unexpected trials and rewards? Life itself, for most people, is a winding road with sometimes precipitous ups and downs.
Face it--it's not just a life, it's an adventure.
Smoothing Out the Bumps
After experiencing a sudden downturn in fortune or watching it happen to others, many realize the wisdom in putting away supplies and resources during good times in case they are needed during challenging times.
Preparing for the unscripted life-adventures is what we at Safecastle call "crisis preparedness" and it is what we aim to help you with.
Adventure planning today is big business in the travel industry. It's serious business. Outfitters who plan and furnish trips and expeditions into the wilds have to account for most potential misadventures that could be encountered. Experience is the best teacher in that regard, but common sense and a cautious bent are what tend to bring clients home safely. Adventure is the sales pitch, but survival is always the bottom line.
In everyday life, adventure is not always the ambition, but of course survival IS the consistent objective. Unfortunately, in an age when comfort, security, and convenience are the norm, anticipating disaster does not come naturally.
Hurricane Katrina, 9/11, major earthquakes and tsunamis, and escalating wars reaching into new lands are enough for some to realize that the odds do not guarantee security for all of us throughout our lifetimes. Crisis happens--whether you're ready for it or not.
The good news is that most disasters are survivable and are temporary in scope if one is adequately positioned to deal with the sudden challenges.
Perhaps what many have trouble grasping, at least here in America, is that our system is not equipped to operate through or after a serious disaster. Over-reliance on that system kills. We've seen it many times, but none so dramatically as in the Katrina aftermath, that for some still drags on.
The Survival Attitude
When push comes to shove, you're best served understanding that you're on your own. Don't just plan to wait for someone to come and rescue you or bail you out ... that help may never arrive.
In a large-scale disaster, the odds are against you receiving the aid you need when you need it. The odds are also against you being able to purchase your way out of trouble when you are most at risk, since the system of supply and transport is almost assuredly going to be a major casualty.
Play the odds all you want, but you should understand those facts right now, before the worst case becomes personal. Take steps now to prepare for unplanned adventures. After all, the world is not getting any safer.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
Saturday, August 05, 2006
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Sadly, Iran Holds the Key to a Pending Global Conflict
At the moment, our world is poised at a crossroads. Straight ahead lies a steep, paved incline into a dark valley of global warfare. Alternatively, we can yet turn aside to navigate the dangerous paths following the contours of the valley's rim.
We seem to have come upon this momentous time rather suddenly, though of course, the signposts warning of the approaching peril have been numerous and plainly apparent to those not asleep.
Those of us in the West who would prefer to continue to talk things out have been skillfully nudged and negotiated into the precarious position we now find ourselves. And we no longer have the proper balance or leverage to be able to make the choices that must now be made. Our biggest decisions will be made for us.
Across the global playing field, diverse alliances and political and cultural interests have come together to a point where, if there is one who now stands at the fulcrum and who has the power in hand to push the world forward into the shadowy terrors, it is Iran, and presumably its president, Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad. His apocalyptic views and intentions are well-known, so it does not bode well for what comes next.
Do not doubt that Iran now holds the key. Rock-solid intelligence has Hezbollah and Syria beholden to Iran. Russia and China continue to provide aid and support to Iran. North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba are firmly allied with them. Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey as well as most of the Middle Eastern countries have cultural as well as economic and religious ties that bind. And of course, Iran has strong influence on global oil markets and firm control over the world's most powerful and capable terrorist organizations, in addition to Hezbollah, with members in place across the globe.
There is no Western consensus over what must now happen in the Middle East. And even if there was, the situation in Lebanon would not be resolved without the buy-in of Iran. It is clear the Iranian nuclear standoff with the West will not be settled via negotiation. Most telling, there are many indications that Ahmadi Nejad, over the last two months, has been in the process of privately and personally rallying his allies to a point and purpose that could go a long way toward defining the near-term future for everyone around the globe.
We seem to have come upon this momentous time rather suddenly, though of course, the signposts warning of the approaching peril have been numerous and plainly apparent to those not asleep.
Those of us in the West who would prefer to continue to talk things out have been skillfully nudged and negotiated into the precarious position we now find ourselves. And we no longer have the proper balance or leverage to be able to make the choices that must now be made. Our biggest decisions will be made for us.
Across the global playing field, diverse alliances and political and cultural interests have come together to a point where, if there is one who now stands at the fulcrum and who has the power in hand to push the world forward into the shadowy terrors, it is Iran, and presumably its president, Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad. His apocalyptic views and intentions are well-known, so it does not bode well for what comes next.
Do not doubt that Iran now holds the key. Rock-solid intelligence has Hezbollah and Syria beholden to Iran. Russia and China continue to provide aid and support to Iran. North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba are firmly allied with them. Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey as well as most of the Middle Eastern countries have cultural as well as economic and religious ties that bind. And of course, Iran has strong influence on global oil markets and firm control over the world's most powerful and capable terrorist organizations, in addition to Hezbollah, with members in place across the globe.
There is no Western consensus over what must now happen in the Middle East. And even if there was, the situation in Lebanon would not be resolved without the buy-in of Iran. It is clear the Iranian nuclear standoff with the West will not be settled via negotiation. Most telling, there are many indications that Ahmadi Nejad, over the last two months, has been in the process of privately and personally rallying his allies to a point and purpose that could go a long way toward defining the near-term future for everyone around the globe.
Revolutionary Jihad
The bottom line for Iran is nonnegotiable. Iran is a Muslim theocracy, ruled and controlled by people who live for one purpose--to dethrone the "Great Satan." The first aim is to bring about the destruction of Israel. And second, to wage a bloodthirsty campaign against all nonbelievers in order to establish a global caliphate. "Choice" is not an option--either for individuals or for Iran and its underlings
Not all of Iran's allies subscribe to the religious goals driving the Islamist movement, but they do embrace the power made manifest in this current phenomenon. They surely share the ambition of dethroning America as a superpower and as the yet predominant influence on global culture.
Clearly, the enemy feels the power of the present alignment of circumstance, and they are not likely to abandon the opportunity.
What to Do
History shows that most wars take time to grow and fully involve those who will be pulled in. There is still time, and perhaps plenty of time yet to prepare your household, physically and spiritually for the battles ahead. Do what you know needs to be done now. To hesitate any longer is to very possibly choose severe hardships for you and your loved ones in the not too distant future.
"Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil. For Thou art with me ..." Psalm 23, v4
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Plan A: Bug-Out or Dig-In?
There are generally three plans of action one can lay out in preparation for possible local disaster. Most folks actually seriously consider only two of the three for reasons that are obvious.
1. Rare, but Effective: There are some who decide to change their life in total and move to a location that they deem is safe and secure from almost all threats. To do this often requires a full-household life-transformation, from career and home moves to lifestyle choices and standard of living alterations. This kind of plan is quite simply not realistic for most people today. But for those who do this, preparedness obviously becomes a prime driver in life, for better or worse.
2. Be Careful and Think Through This One: Some folks, for reasons reasonable or occasionally unreasonable, plan to deal with most or all disasters by "bugging out." If there is an attainable destination within a short drive, this may be OK. But much thought must be devoted to whether there is actually a necessity to leave your home and to make yourself vulnerable on the road--whether there may be gridlock along the route of your escape, or whether there may be elevated danger in a potentially chaotic evacuation scenario. Weigh the risks against the benefits. Is your planned bugout location truly that much safer and better equipped to sustain you in a time of crisis? Will you enjoy the familiarity and community support system in place in that other location that you would naturally have in place back at home? Are you willing to spend the time and money to prepare that location adequately (perhaps doubling your preparedness expenditures if you are also prepping your normal homestead for staying put through a period of difficulty)? The list of considerations is long if one really wants to seriously assess ramifications.
3. If Possible, Dig-in: For most people and for most disasters, the best "Plan A" is to stay put ... hopefully where you live, perhaps where you work. For planning purposes, minimizing your vulnerability to social chaos in an evacuation scenario and capitalizing on your home-neighborhood and community support system makes staying-put your best option. Of course, you must look at the exact situation and decide if that actually makes sense. For instance, exceptions to the rule might include a major hurricane bearing down on you, threatening to flood you out, or an industrial accident upwind that threatens air quality in your locale if you stay where you are.
Best to Be Ready Either Way
For everyone, the ideal approach to preparedness is to try to cover as many bases as possible. Be ready to stay home and fortify your position in the place you know best ... but also be prepared to pick up and get out of Dodge in an instant if you absolutely need to.
For many years my own plan was to be able to adequately anticipate whatever major danger might require "Plan A" to be put into action. That very optimistically meant being ahead of the curve, hitting the road before everyone else would be out on the highway, for a drive with my family and vehicles loaded to the roof with whatever necessities we could fit in. The destination was two-and-a-half hours away in ideal conditions ... our secluded cabin off the grid in the middle of the woods, far from even the closest rural neighbors. The place was fully stocked and squared away for a nice little rendevous with TEOTWAWKI.
But after years of spending the money and time to keep it at full readiness, it dawned on me that we could be more realistically applying my available resources to a solution with better odds.
It was, in itself, a big move for us after becoming so much a part of that piece of remote and beautiful property and the idea that we could play northwoods-pioneer-survivor whenever we needed to ... IF we could actually get there when the time came.
But the logic was undeniable and we did ultimately arrive at the decision to reformulate Plan A.
In a few words, that meant that we sold that property. We applied the money to building onto our outer-suburban home in the form of an addition. AND most significantly, the project included the installation of an indestructible steel fallout shelter under the addition. In short order, we greatly enhanced our chances of surviving most anything, and made our refuge more immediate, convenient, and certainly more robust. It proved less costly in the long run as well, since we no longer need to try to maintain and prepare two different locations for whatever may come.
So do we still have a Plan B? Of course. We know where we'll go if we need to bug-out. It's three-and-a-half hours away in ideal conditions and there is a nice community support system in place for us (family ties, etc.) But that Plan B is really Plan Z for us, as that is what we will do only when all else fails.
Staying put, putting money and work into fortifying one's homebase, developing community ties ... it all makes sense in more ways than just preparing for doomsday. It's almost a straightforward business decision--after looking at the risks, assessing the actual payback opportunities for various options, ascertaining core holdings and committing to the plan that holds the most promise based on available resources ... you almost always dig in and stick to what you know best, defending your current marketshare.
For us, it took years of working through other ideas and plans and alternative realities. But in the end, common sense prevailed--there's no place like home if you want to maximize your chances of survival across the spectrum of potential risks.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
1. Rare, but Effective: There are some who decide to change their life in total and move to a location that they deem is safe and secure from almost all threats. To do this often requires a full-household life-transformation, from career and home moves to lifestyle choices and standard of living alterations. This kind of plan is quite simply not realistic for most people today. But for those who do this, preparedness obviously becomes a prime driver in life, for better or worse.
2. Be Careful and Think Through This One: Some folks, for reasons reasonable or occasionally unreasonable, plan to deal with most or all disasters by "bugging out." If there is an attainable destination within a short drive, this may be OK. But much thought must be devoted to whether there is actually a necessity to leave your home and to make yourself vulnerable on the road--whether there may be gridlock along the route of your escape, or whether there may be elevated danger in a potentially chaotic evacuation scenario. Weigh the risks against the benefits. Is your planned bugout location truly that much safer and better equipped to sustain you in a time of crisis? Will you enjoy the familiarity and community support system in place in that other location that you would naturally have in place back at home? Are you willing to spend the time and money to prepare that location adequately (perhaps doubling your preparedness expenditures if you are also prepping your normal homestead for staying put through a period of difficulty)? The list of considerations is long if one really wants to seriously assess ramifications.
3. If Possible, Dig-in: For most people and for most disasters, the best "Plan A" is to stay put ... hopefully where you live, perhaps where you work. For planning purposes, minimizing your vulnerability to social chaos in an evacuation scenario and capitalizing on your home-neighborhood and community support system makes staying-put your best option. Of course, you must look at the exact situation and decide if that actually makes sense. For instance, exceptions to the rule might include a major hurricane bearing down on you, threatening to flood you out, or an industrial accident upwind that threatens air quality in your locale if you stay where you are.
Best to Be Ready Either Way
For everyone, the ideal approach to preparedness is to try to cover as many bases as possible. Be ready to stay home and fortify your position in the place you know best ... but also be prepared to pick up and get out of Dodge in an instant if you absolutely need to.
For many years my own plan was to be able to adequately anticipate whatever major danger might require "Plan A" to be put into action. That very optimistically meant being ahead of the curve, hitting the road before everyone else would be out on the highway, for a drive with my family and vehicles loaded to the roof with whatever necessities we could fit in. The destination was two-and-a-half hours away in ideal conditions ... our secluded cabin off the grid in the middle of the woods, far from even the closest rural neighbors. The place was fully stocked and squared away for a nice little rendevous with TEOTWAWKI.
But after years of spending the money and time to keep it at full readiness, it dawned on me that we could be more realistically applying my available resources to a solution with better odds.
It was, in itself, a big move for us after becoming so much a part of that piece of remote and beautiful property and the idea that we could play northwoods-pioneer-survivor whenever we needed to ... IF we could actually get there when the time came.
But the logic was undeniable and we did ultimately arrive at the decision to reformulate Plan A.
In a few words, that meant that we sold that property. We applied the money to building onto our outer-suburban home in the form of an addition. AND most significantly, the project included the installation of an indestructible steel fallout shelter under the addition. In short order, we greatly enhanced our chances of surviving most anything, and made our refuge more immediate, convenient, and certainly more robust. It proved less costly in the long run as well, since we no longer need to try to maintain and prepare two different locations for whatever may come.
So do we still have a Plan B? Of course. We know where we'll go if we need to bug-out. It's three-and-a-half hours away in ideal conditions and there is a nice community support system in place for us (family ties, etc.) But that Plan B is really Plan Z for us, as that is what we will do only when all else fails.
Staying put, putting money and work into fortifying one's homebase, developing community ties ... it all makes sense in more ways than just preparing for doomsday. It's almost a straightforward business decision--after looking at the risks, assessing the actual payback opportunities for various options, ascertaining core holdings and committing to the plan that holds the most promise based on available resources ... you almost always dig in and stick to what you know best, defending your current marketshare.
For us, it took years of working through other ideas and plans and alternative realities. But in the end, common sense prevailed--there's no place like home if you want to maximize your chances of survival across the spectrum of potential risks.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Time to Dial-Up the Adrenaline Feed a Notch
Calm, moderated awareness is always preferable to worry or panic. But when there is obvious potential danger over the horizon, it is time to let your natural defensive instincts kick in.
International tensions are reaching new heights and there is a reasonable chance that any manner of outcomes could seriously impact your way of life in the near to medium term.
What that should mean to anyone with a mind toward being prepared for crises is, do what you know needs to be done. Don't put it off any longer. Hopefully, we are just talking about topping off your supplies--food, storage gasoline, maybe picking up that needed piece of gear that you've been putting off.
Already, you will note that gas stations are doing a brisk business. Plenty of folks recognize that at the very least, gas prices could sky-rocket at any time, so they are filling up. Present $3 per gallon prices might soon seem to be a bargain.
If the flames do proceed to engulf more nations, including the U.S., drawing open hostile actions from all directions ... well, of course all bets are off, and we could quickly find even local food supplies being impacted here at home as well as experience a serious economic downturn.
Beat the rush and finalize your preps now. But again, there is no need to panic. Just do your thing as this is what logic dictates at the moment.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
International tensions are reaching new heights and there is a reasonable chance that any manner of outcomes could seriously impact your way of life in the near to medium term.
What that should mean to anyone with a mind toward being prepared for crises is, do what you know needs to be done. Don't put it off any longer. Hopefully, we are just talking about topping off your supplies--food, storage gasoline, maybe picking up that needed piece of gear that you've been putting off.
Already, you will note that gas stations are doing a brisk business. Plenty of folks recognize that at the very least, gas prices could sky-rocket at any time, so they are filling up. Present $3 per gallon prices might soon seem to be a bargain.
If the flames do proceed to engulf more nations, including the U.S., drawing open hostile actions from all directions ... well, of course all bets are off, and we could quickly find even local food supplies being impacted here at home as well as experience a serious economic downturn.
Beat the rush and finalize your preps now. But again, there is no need to panic. Just do your thing as this is what logic dictates at the moment.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
Monday, July 10, 2006
Probabilistic Risk Assessment - What are YOUR Chances for Coming Out on Top?
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a field that is increasingly relevant in organizations that must mitigate their chances of catastrophic losses. PRA experts, including mathemeticians, engineers, and insurance technicians, use very sophisticated conceptual and computing resources to assess the risk of "low probability, high-consequence" events.
Companies and government agencies use such calculations to decide whether they are prepared to accept involved risk in a venture.
Examples: Vice President Dick Cheney was reported to have said, in reference to the war on terror, that as long as there was a 1 percent chance of the unimaginable coming due, we should act as if it is a certainty. In other words, in at least Cheney's mind, a 1 percent risk factor in terms of attack probabilities is a reasonable threshold for taking defensive measures to protect the population.
Another well-known example: Several years ago, NASA determined the risk of a catastrophic space shuttle failure was 1 in 145, or about .7 percent. NASA accepted that risk of failure as being reasonable, given the importance of their overall mission.
Couple the Risk with the Objective to Arrive at a Decision
Simply stated, risk is a measure of probability and magnitude of an adverse effect. (Note that probability is a function of time.)
Here are a few other examples of risk as assessed by William Allman in "Staying Alive in the Twentieth Century" (1985).
Activities Estimated to Increase Your Chances of Dying in any Given Year by
1 in 1 Million
Activity - Resulting Death Risk
Smoking 1.4 cigarettes - Cancer, heart disease
Drinking 0.5 liter of wine - Cirrhosis of the liver
Spending 1 hour in a coal mine - Black lung disease
Living 2 days in New York or Boston - Air pollution
Traveling 6 minutes by canoe - Accident
Traveling 10 miles by bicycle - Accident
Traveling 150 miles by car- Accident
Flying 1000 miles by jet- Accident
Flying 6000 miles by jet- Cancer caused by cosmic radiation
Living 2 months in Denver - Cancer caused by cosmic radiation
Living 2 months in a stone or brick building - Cancer caused by natural radioactivity
One chest X ray - Cancer caused by radiation
Living 2 months with a cigarette smoker - Cancer, heart disease
Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter- Cancer from aflatoxin
Living 5 years at the site boundary of a typical nuclear power plant - Cancer caused by radiation from routine leaks
Living 50 years 5 miles from a nuclear power plant - Cancer caused by accidental radiation release
Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks - Cancer from benzopyrene
It's very important to note that ALL behavior contains some inherent level of risk. Even behavior required to sustain life, such as eating, is inherently risky to some degree.
Traditionally, and still in the vast majority of households, risk perception is quite simply an emotional judgment. But there are a number of non-scientific factors that enter into one's risk perception ... and indeed to some degree, these factors must often be considered even within groups that rely upon the latest mathematical tools.
How we perceive a given risk involves such things as how much we enjoy an activity, how much experience we have with an activity, and whether we are able to discern that news media accounts of risk are often exaggerated. The bottom line is that emotion is a far more persuasive element in a risk/reward decision than statistics.
Virtually every decision we make can be boiled down to a risk/reward quotient. If we cared to go that far, we could easily become bogged down in the numbers for everything from which side of the bed to get out of, to what to have for breakfast, to where to invest that $4.52 in change you'll receive at the convenience store after paying for your milk, bologna, and latest issue of Monster Trucks Illustrated.
What's the Point?
Someday soon, I expect some of those proprietary actuarial formulas that are today helping the big guys make the big bucks for their big decisions will be available on the internet to the average Joe. In other words, we'll all be able to instantly calculate our personal exposure to risk--at least for the greatest risks out there--given our personal circumstances and habits. Of course, for many risks, location is the number one factor to feed into the grinder.
But until that time, most of us need to simply realize that mitigating household risk has to be about common sense and keeping an anchored and well-balanced perspective on reality and probabilities.
Personal Preparedness Should Not Be Emotional
Crisis preparedness is all about being ready for the likeliest worst-case scenarios that can impact you and your household. Some scenarios are within your control to mitigate. Others are well beyond any mortal man's control. All are capable of causing fear and over-reaction before they ever actually occur.
Although most of us are not about to attempt to work out the personalized risk-reward ratios for preparations for hurricanes or tornadoes or a local terror attack, it's worth keeping in mind that the risks are always going to be minutely fractional. So although it makes all the sense in the world to be prepared, just in case, no risk is worth losing sight of your greater objectives in this life--whatever they may be.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Companies and government agencies use such calculations to decide whether they are prepared to accept involved risk in a venture.
Examples: Vice President Dick Cheney was reported to have said, in reference to the war on terror, that as long as there was a 1 percent chance of the unimaginable coming due, we should act as if it is a certainty. In other words, in at least Cheney's mind, a 1 percent risk factor in terms of attack probabilities is a reasonable threshold for taking defensive measures to protect the population.
Another well-known example: Several years ago, NASA determined the risk of a catastrophic space shuttle failure was 1 in 145, or about .7 percent. NASA accepted that risk of failure as being reasonable, given the importance of their overall mission.
Couple the Risk with the Objective to Arrive at a Decision
Simply stated, risk is a measure of probability and magnitude of an adverse effect. (Note that probability is a function of time.)
Here are a few other examples of risk as assessed by William Allman in "Staying Alive in the Twentieth Century" (1985).
Activities Estimated to Increase Your Chances of Dying in any Given Year by
1 in 1 Million
Activity - Resulting Death Risk
Smoking 1.4 cigarettes - Cancer, heart disease
Drinking 0.5 liter of wine - Cirrhosis of the liver
Spending 1 hour in a coal mine - Black lung disease
Living 2 days in New York or Boston - Air pollution
Traveling 6 minutes by canoe - Accident
Traveling 10 miles by bicycle - Accident
Traveling 150 miles by car- Accident
Flying 1000 miles by jet- Accident
Flying 6000 miles by jet- Cancer caused by cosmic radiation
Living 2 months in Denver - Cancer caused by cosmic radiation
Living 2 months in a stone or brick building - Cancer caused by natural radioactivity
One chest X ray - Cancer caused by radiation
Living 2 months with a cigarette smoker - Cancer, heart disease
Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter- Cancer from aflatoxin
Living 5 years at the site boundary of a typical nuclear power plant - Cancer caused by radiation from routine leaks
Living 50 years 5 miles from a nuclear power plant - Cancer caused by accidental radiation release
Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks - Cancer from benzopyrene
It's very important to note that ALL behavior contains some inherent level of risk. Even behavior required to sustain life, such as eating, is inherently risky to some degree.
Traditionally, and still in the vast majority of households, risk perception is quite simply an emotional judgment. But there are a number of non-scientific factors that enter into one's risk perception ... and indeed to some degree, these factors must often be considered even within groups that rely upon the latest mathematical tools.
How we perceive a given risk involves such things as how much we enjoy an activity, how much experience we have with an activity, and whether we are able to discern that news media accounts of risk are often exaggerated. The bottom line is that emotion is a far more persuasive element in a risk/reward decision than statistics.
Virtually every decision we make can be boiled down to a risk/reward quotient. If we cared to go that far, we could easily become bogged down in the numbers for everything from which side of the bed to get out of, to what to have for breakfast, to where to invest that $4.52 in change you'll receive at the convenience store after paying for your milk, bologna, and latest issue of Monster Trucks Illustrated.
What's the Point?
Someday soon, I expect some of those proprietary actuarial formulas that are today helping the big guys make the big bucks for their big decisions will be available on the internet to the average Joe. In other words, we'll all be able to instantly calculate our personal exposure to risk--at least for the greatest risks out there--given our personal circumstances and habits. Of course, for many risks, location is the number one factor to feed into the grinder.
But until that time, most of us need to simply realize that mitigating household risk has to be about common sense and keeping an anchored and well-balanced perspective on reality and probabilities.
Personal Preparedness Should Not Be Emotional
Crisis preparedness is all about being ready for the likeliest worst-case scenarios that can impact you and your household. Some scenarios are within your control to mitigate. Others are well beyond any mortal man's control. All are capable of causing fear and over-reaction before they ever actually occur.
Although most of us are not about to attempt to work out the personalized risk-reward ratios for preparations for hurricanes or tornadoes or a local terror attack, it's worth keeping in mind that the risks are always going to be minutely fractional. So although it makes all the sense in the world to be prepared, just in case, no risk is worth losing sight of your greater objectives in this life--whatever they may be.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
Don't Worry ... Be Ready
At the foundation of every preparedness outpost is some deeply held perspective on what the future may hold. With that in mind, I see this linked and excerpted opinion piece to be a worthwhile and entertaining test of the shaky dynamic on which some presumptions rest ...
http://www.slate.com/id/2144775/
The Future of Futurism
Down with the techno-utopians! Up with the techno-realists!
By Reihan Salam
Posted Thursday, June 29, 2006, at 12:12 PM ET
It's easy to make futurists look silly. For every prediction that comes true (or that sort of comes true—Nostradamus predicted that someone named "Hister" would do something terrible one day), about 20,000 more do not. Just take a look at some of these forecasts from the 1970s: an economically vibrant Soviet Union will put America to shame, a new Ice Age will cause mass starvation, and a single eight-track cassette will hold all human knowledge.
Even so, it's not fair to say that all futurism is misguided. Just most of it. In his 1976 Time essay "Is There Any Future in Futurism?" Stefan Kanfer wrote that you could divide futurists into neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians. Neo-Malthusians are convinced that the world is going to hell. Some, like The Population Bomb's Paul Ehrlich, blamed population growth; others, like the Club of Rome, blamed economic growth. Either way, the prescription remained the same: You've got to change your evil ways, Earthlings.
The Cornucopians, in contrast, promise vast riches. Growth is the solution, not the problem. According to the 1976 Hudson Institute report The Next 200 Years, the coming decades would see declining population growth (true), a rising standard of living (also true), superintelligent robots in every home (do you own an Xbox?), and vast undersea cities (glub glub). Over the last few decades, it's safe to say that the Cornucopians generally got things right and that the neo-Malthusians generally got things wrong.
...
The best futurists take present-day trends in technology and extrapolate from them based on a few fundamentals: that large-scale institutions will keep being slow-witted, that small groups of people are good at learning and adapting to new circumstances, and that death and taxes will always be with us. Reynolds partisans can sit back and wait for "the comfy chair revolution" to come. Meanwhile, I'll be stockpiling enough ammunition, Cipro, and NewsRadio DVDs to last me through the coming robot wars.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
http://www.slate.com/id/2144775/
The Future of Futurism
Down with the techno-utopians! Up with the techno-realists!
By Reihan Salam
Posted Thursday, June 29, 2006, at 12:12 PM ET
It's easy to make futurists look silly. For every prediction that comes true (or that sort of comes true—Nostradamus predicted that someone named "Hister" would do something terrible one day), about 20,000 more do not. Just take a look at some of these forecasts from the 1970s: an economically vibrant Soviet Union will put America to shame, a new Ice Age will cause mass starvation, and a single eight-track cassette will hold all human knowledge.
Even so, it's not fair to say that all futurism is misguided. Just most of it. In his 1976 Time essay "Is There Any Future in Futurism?" Stefan Kanfer wrote that you could divide futurists into neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians. Neo-Malthusians are convinced that the world is going to hell. Some, like The Population Bomb's Paul Ehrlich, blamed population growth; others, like the Club of Rome, blamed economic growth. Either way, the prescription remained the same: You've got to change your evil ways, Earthlings.
The Cornucopians, in contrast, promise vast riches. Growth is the solution, not the problem. According to the 1976 Hudson Institute report The Next 200 Years, the coming decades would see declining population growth (true), a rising standard of living (also true), superintelligent robots in every home (do you own an Xbox?), and vast undersea cities (glub glub). Over the last few decades, it's safe to say that the Cornucopians generally got things right and that the neo-Malthusians generally got things wrong.
...
The best futurists take present-day trends in technology and extrapolate from them based on a few fundamentals: that large-scale institutions will keep being slow-witted, that small groups of people are good at learning and adapting to new circumstances, and that death and taxes will always be with us. Reynolds partisans can sit back and wait for "the comfy chair revolution" to come. Meanwhile, I'll be stockpiling enough ammunition, Cipro, and NewsRadio DVDs to last me through the coming robot wars.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Our Complacent Comfort Zone
Americans are once again settling back into that well-insulated nest of self-awareness we are so renowned for.
It's been "forever" since we've been effectively attacked on our own soil, and since our military forces have taken the fight to the aggressors' stomping grounds, it seems we no longer have anything to fear back in the good old USA.
Well, maybe other than just an occasional dose of mother nature ...
Yes, we're back into hurricane season, but Katrina last year wasn't so bad, was it?
We all saw the recent reports suggesting Southern California's San Andreas fault may be in position now for a cataclysmic snap-back that would dwarf other modern era quakes. But that's been looming over SoCal heads for so long now, it's mostly urban legend, isn't it? Just more of the same blah-blah-blah.
Oh, and we can't deny there's that rather ominous background buzz about a potential flu pandemic that could kill off more people around the world in a year or two than all history's wars combined. But other than that ...
Heck, one thing we've got under control is the economy. It's down to a science for those Greenspan/Bernanke types, so THAT variable of uncertainty is passe ... even though admittedly, more and more economists are alarmed about key indicators that suggest a major correction is around the corner if not a global economic collapse. Bottom line is, U.S. stock markets still offer rosy opportunities for short-term investment gains, so things can't be too bad out there, right?
There IS some interesting public discourse out there about illegal immigration, peak oil, Iranian and North Korean nuclear weaponry, and the like these days, and the subsequent seasonal political posturing taking place that makes for compelling election campaigning. So along with our ever-more finely tuned/chemically engineered athletic-cycle productions coming to us in High Definition and Surround Sound to keep us mildly entertained, America is back to normal.
Comfortably Numb
America's security blanket is of course woven from the finest pure fibers spun in our media industries.
Knowledge and information ... or manufactured ambivalence and disinformation ... in this age of competitive abundance of versions of the truth, it leaves all of us at some point wiping the spittle from our chins after periodically coming-to, when the microwave timer reminds us that we can always ingest a little more convenience and satisfaction.
The fact of the matter is, throughout our nation's history, our people have always shown that we do not have the stomach for major, long-term initiatives that require ongoing sacrifice. Yes, we certainly do step up to the plate and we'll get inspired to kick some butt when required, but after a few years of putting off our collective tendency toward complete self-indulgence, we lose interest ... and by golly, that time has come again, hasn't it?
That, more than anything else these days, does have me wondering what is in the wind. The smoke and alarming scents that were recently so easy to discern seem to have become nothing more than the environmental norm.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
It's been "forever" since we've been effectively attacked on our own soil, and since our military forces have taken the fight to the aggressors' stomping grounds, it seems we no longer have anything to fear back in the good old USA.
Well, maybe other than just an occasional dose of mother nature ...
Yes, we're back into hurricane season, but Katrina last year wasn't so bad, was it?
We all saw the recent reports suggesting Southern California's San Andreas fault may be in position now for a cataclysmic snap-back that would dwarf other modern era quakes. But that's been looming over SoCal heads for so long now, it's mostly urban legend, isn't it? Just more of the same blah-blah-blah.
Oh, and we can't deny there's that rather ominous background buzz about a potential flu pandemic that could kill off more people around the world in a year or two than all history's wars combined. But other than that ...
Heck, one thing we've got under control is the economy. It's down to a science for those Greenspan/Bernanke types, so THAT variable of uncertainty is passe ... even though admittedly, more and more economists are alarmed about key indicators that suggest a major correction is around the corner if not a global economic collapse. Bottom line is, U.S. stock markets still offer rosy opportunities for short-term investment gains, so things can't be too bad out there, right?
There IS some interesting public discourse out there about illegal immigration, peak oil, Iranian and North Korean nuclear weaponry, and the like these days, and the subsequent seasonal political posturing taking place that makes for compelling election campaigning. So along with our ever-more finely tuned/chemically engineered athletic-cycle productions coming to us in High Definition and Surround Sound to keep us mildly entertained, America is back to normal.
Comfortably Numb
America's security blanket is of course woven from the finest pure fibers spun in our media industries.
Knowledge and information ... or manufactured ambivalence and disinformation ... in this age of competitive abundance of versions of the truth, it leaves all of us at some point wiping the spittle from our chins after periodically coming-to, when the microwave timer reminds us that we can always ingest a little more convenience and satisfaction.
The fact of the matter is, throughout our nation's history, our people have always shown that we do not have the stomach for major, long-term initiatives that require ongoing sacrifice. Yes, we certainly do step up to the plate and we'll get inspired to kick some butt when required, but after a few years of putting off our collective tendency toward complete self-indulgence, we lose interest ... and by golly, that time has come again, hasn't it?
That, more than anything else these days, does have me wondering what is in the wind. The smoke and alarming scents that were recently so easy to discern seem to have become nothing more than the environmental norm.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.net
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Kim Jong-il Needs Attention from Time to Time
So once again, it seems for the moment, North Korea has taken center position on the global threat matrix.
A couple of excerpts from worthwhile BBC informational pieces follow (recommend reading them in full) ...
Tracking N Korea's missile intent
by Rob Watson Defence and security correspondent, BBC News
Like most things about North Korea, little is known for certain about the Taepodong 2 missile.
But there is no doubt North Korea does have a very long standing and pretty sophisticated missile programme.
In 1998, before it began observing a moratorium on tests, North Korea launched a Taepodong 1 missile which passed over northern Japan and surprised Western intelligence agencies by the use of three stages in the missile's propulsion system.
What is striking about the Taepodong 2 is that it could well be North Korea's first genuine intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) - a missile with a range of more than 5,500km (3,400 miles).
Just how far it might be able to travel and with what weight and type of warhead and level of accuracy is uncertain. But it has been suggested it could have a range up to 15,000km.
That would put Alaska or Hawaii within its reach and even the continental US if a lighter warhead were used.
(More ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5103394.stm )
Profile: Kim Jong-il
The little that is known about Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader, conjures up a caricature of a diminutive playboy, a comic picture at odds with his brutal regime.
Diplomats and escaped dissidents talk of a vain, paranoid, cognac-guzzling hypochondriac.
He is said to wear platform shoes and favour a bouffant hairstyle in order to appear taller than his 5 feet 3 inches.
But analysts are undecided whether his eccentricities mask the cunning mind of a master manipulator or betray an irrational madman.
I know I'm an object of criticism in the world, but if I am being talked about, I must be doing the right things
Kim Jong-il Mr Kim may well encourage the myth-making surrounding him precisely in order to keep the Western world guessing. North Korea has little to bargain with, and ignorance breeds fear.
Film buff
The analysis of him as a mercurial fantasist is certainly beguiling.
He is said to have a library of 20,000 Hollywood movies and to have even written a book on the cinema. He even went so far as to engineer the kidnapping, in 1978, of a South Korean film director and his girlfriend.
This taste for the exotic apparently extends to gastronomy.
Konstantin Pulikovsky, a Russian emissary who travelled with Mr Kim by train across Russia in reported that the North Korean leader had live lobsters air-lifted to the train every day which he ate with silver chopsticks.
The two men shared champagne with a bevy of female companions of "utmost beauty and intelligence", according to Mr Pulikovsky.
Mr Kim also has a reputation as a drinker. He was seen draining 10 glasses of wine during his 2000 summit with the South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and is known to have a taste for Hennessy VSOP cognac.
Strategist
As head of North Korea's special forces for much of the 70s and 80s, he has been linked by defectors to international terrorist activities, including the 1986 bombing of a Korean Airlines jet in which 115 people died.
(More ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/1907197.stm )
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
A couple of excerpts from worthwhile BBC informational pieces follow (recommend reading them in full) ...
Tracking N Korea's missile intent
by Rob Watson Defence and security correspondent, BBC News
Like most things about North Korea, little is known for certain about the Taepodong 2 missile.
But there is no doubt North Korea does have a very long standing and pretty sophisticated missile programme.
In 1998, before it began observing a moratorium on tests, North Korea launched a Taepodong 1 missile which passed over northern Japan and surprised Western intelligence agencies by the use of three stages in the missile's propulsion system.
What is striking about the Taepodong 2 is that it could well be North Korea's first genuine intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) - a missile with a range of more than 5,500km (3,400 miles).
Just how far it might be able to travel and with what weight and type of warhead and level of accuracy is uncertain. But it has been suggested it could have a range up to 15,000km.
That would put Alaska or Hawaii within its reach and even the continental US if a lighter warhead were used.
(More ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5103394.stm )
Profile: Kim Jong-il
The little that is known about Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader, conjures up a caricature of a diminutive playboy, a comic picture at odds with his brutal regime.
Diplomats and escaped dissidents talk of a vain, paranoid, cognac-guzzling hypochondriac.
He is said to wear platform shoes and favour a bouffant hairstyle in order to appear taller than his 5 feet 3 inches.
But analysts are undecided whether his eccentricities mask the cunning mind of a master manipulator or betray an irrational madman.
I know I'm an object of criticism in the world, but if I am being talked about, I must be doing the right things
Kim Jong-il Mr Kim may well encourage the myth-making surrounding him precisely in order to keep the Western world guessing. North Korea has little to bargain with, and ignorance breeds fear.
Film buff
The analysis of him as a mercurial fantasist is certainly beguiling.
He is said to have a library of 20,000 Hollywood movies and to have even written a book on the cinema. He even went so far as to engineer the kidnapping, in 1978, of a South Korean film director and his girlfriend.
This taste for the exotic apparently extends to gastronomy.
Konstantin Pulikovsky, a Russian emissary who travelled with Mr Kim by train across Russia in reported that the North Korean leader had live lobsters air-lifted to the train every day which he ate with silver chopsticks.
The two men shared champagne with a bevy of female companions of "utmost beauty and intelligence", according to Mr Pulikovsky.
Mr Kim also has a reputation as a drinker. He was seen draining 10 glasses of wine during his 2000 summit with the South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and is known to have a taste for Hennessy VSOP cognac.
Strategist
As head of North Korea's special forces for much of the 70s and 80s, he has been linked by defectors to international terrorist activities, including the 1986 bombing of a Korean Airlines jet in which 115 people died.
(More ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/1907197.stm )
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Saturday, June 10, 2006
Calm Before the Storm
The year's first hurricanes are doubtlessly germinating in the tropics at this point ... perhaps as yet little more than a breathy wisp off the edge of the proverbial butterfly's wing.
But have no doubt, the bell has sounded and the folks on the Gulf Coast and on the Atlantic seaboard have to be alert for the next killer storm warnings, wherever they may need to be issued.
You Know the Drill
The household storm-preparation drill remains the same, but the big-picture stakes continue to increase every year.
Unabated urban development inflates the potential for disaster all up and down the coasts. It also clogs escape paths for residents if they need to take flight. Meanwhile, insurance companies continue to amend their homeowners policies to minimize company potential for catastrophic loss ... and to of course increase the exposure of their policyholders to disaster.
There are many things beyond one's control in this situation. We can bemoan the fates of nature; the moves of city planners, government regulators and emergency management bureaucracies; and the ethics and motivations of corporate insurers. But it does still all come down to what is it YOU are doing to optimize your household's position in the struggle to overcome.
Your Options
Moving away from the danger is out of the question for most.
Building hurricane-proof homes and/or shelters are also unrealistic for most.
What does that leave? A need for a well-thought-out plan of action, that's what. Have on hand plenty of provisions that are portable and ready to move inland. By now, you should know well what you ought to be ready to take with you--the media has done a fine job of educating us on how to bug-out effectively. The key is, are you actually ready to throw it all in the car and move quickly? Yes, quickly--if at all possible, you want to be ahead of the surge--the flood of evacuees.
Initially, many will linger to see if indeed the hurricane track will change or if the storm will be downgraded. Others will simply wrestle with the decision to leave their homes till it is almost too late.
If you are ahead of the curve, you know what you will do to board-up, having the materials already on hand. You know what you will take with you, where you are going to go, and what routes are possible. And most importantly, you will have made up your mind to be decisive and not second-guess yourself if you want to avoid the gridlock and emergency-shelter shortage you will encounter with any delay in your reactions.
Take Advantage of the Opportunity
Now, before the storm appears on your horizon, is the time to do the prep work and to think it all through logically, calmly. Being prepared leaves you only that final decision to take action ... potentially life-saving action.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
But have no doubt, the bell has sounded and the folks on the Gulf Coast and on the Atlantic seaboard have to be alert for the next killer storm warnings, wherever they may need to be issued.
You Know the Drill
The household storm-preparation drill remains the same, but the big-picture stakes continue to increase every year.
Unabated urban development inflates the potential for disaster all up and down the coasts. It also clogs escape paths for residents if they need to take flight. Meanwhile, insurance companies continue to amend their homeowners policies to minimize company potential for catastrophic loss ... and to of course increase the exposure of their policyholders to disaster.
There are many things beyond one's control in this situation. We can bemoan the fates of nature; the moves of city planners, government regulators and emergency management bureaucracies; and the ethics and motivations of corporate insurers. But it does still all come down to what is it YOU are doing to optimize your household's position in the struggle to overcome.
Your Options
Moving away from the danger is out of the question for most.
Building hurricane-proof homes and/or shelters are also unrealistic for most.
What does that leave? A need for a well-thought-out plan of action, that's what. Have on hand plenty of provisions that are portable and ready to move inland. By now, you should know well what you ought to be ready to take with you--the media has done a fine job of educating us on how to bug-out effectively. The key is, are you actually ready to throw it all in the car and move quickly? Yes, quickly--if at all possible, you want to be ahead of the surge--the flood of evacuees.
Initially, many will linger to see if indeed the hurricane track will change or if the storm will be downgraded. Others will simply wrestle with the decision to leave their homes till it is almost too late.
If you are ahead of the curve, you know what you will do to board-up, having the materials already on hand. You know what you will take with you, where you are going to go, and what routes are possible. And most importantly, you will have made up your mind to be decisive and not second-guess yourself if you want to avoid the gridlock and emergency-shelter shortage you will encounter with any delay in your reactions.
Take Advantage of the Opportunity
Now, before the storm appears on your horizon, is the time to do the prep work and to think it all through logically, calmly. Being prepared leaves you only that final decision to take action ... potentially life-saving action.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Friday, June 02, 2006
The Montague Paratrooper Folding Bike
I just listed the ultimate prepper bike in my store--the Montague Paratrooper--developed in conjunction with DARPA for the military, and only recently made available in the civilian marketplace.
The bike comes in either an 18 inch or 20 inch frame. The one you want is based on your height--see the bottom of the listing. I could go on and on about this bike, but I suggest if you are interested, you have a look at the listing and do more research. This bike was designed and built to be dropped out of airplanes on a man's back, to be unfolded and to be ridden away in 30 seconds. Yep--tough and lite!
See my listing: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=7246333712&rd=1&sspagename=STRK%3AMESE%3AIT&rd=1
Needless to say, a very nice preparedness / "bug-out" option to have.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Scaring Up Preparedness
A good article here. Interesting to me that those finally embracing readiness in the last year have totally swamped existing preparedness supply lines ... and yet so very many more need to still wake up. The guy whose response was that he'll wait to get whatever he needs till the storm is on the horizon is typical. Most folks don't understand about our "Just in Time" supply-line limitations.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/31/us/31prepare.html?ei=5090&en=467e4e2eb6fdbce3&ex=1306728000&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
May 31, 2006
As Hurricane Season Looms, States Aim to Scare
By ABBY GOODNOUGH
MIAMI, May 30 — Convinced that tough tactics are needed, officials in hurricane-prone states are trumpeting dire warnings about the storm season that starts on Thursday, preaching self-reliance and prodding the public to prepare early and well.
Cities are circulating storm-preparation checklists, counties are holding hurricane expositions at shopping malls and states are dangling carrots like free home inspections and tax-free storm supplies in hopes of conquering complacency.
But the main strategy, it seems, is to scare the multitudes of people who emergency officials say remain blasé even after last year's record-breaking storm season.
To persuade residents to heed evacuation orders, the Florida Division of Emergency Management is broadcasting public service announcements with recordings of 911 calls placed during Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
"The roof has completely caved in on us," a woman cries as chilling music swells, only to be told that rescuers cannot come out during the storm.
Speaking of the tactics, Craig Fugate, Florida's emergency management director, said last week at a news conference in Tallahassee, "We're going to use a sledgehammer."
This save-yourselves approach comes after government agencies were overwhelmed by pleas for help after last year's storms and strongly criticized as not responding swiftly or thoroughly enough to the public need. Now, officials have said repeatedly, only the elderly, the poor and the disabled should count on the government to help them escape a hurricane or endure its immediate aftermath.
Mississippi, where more than 200 residents died in Hurricane Katrina, unrolled a "Stay Alert. Stay Alive" hurricane awareness campaign in April. State officials told residents what to pack in a "go-kit" for evacuating (flashlight, radio, nonelectric can opener) and, like many others, commanded them to stockpile at least three days' worth of water and food.
Horry County, S.C., home to Myrtle Beach, held a hurricane exposition last month and is giving similar presentations at Kiwanis clubs and homeowners associations.
"The big shortfall is complacency with the community," said Randall Webster, director of Horry County Emergency Management. "Our main theme is, take interest as an individual and make preparations."
But will it work? Emergency management officials groaned this month at a poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., which found that of 1,100 adults along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, 83 percent had taken no steps to fortify their homes this year, 68 percent had no hurricane survival kits and 60 percent had no family disaster plan.
"I can't rightfully say I see any increased sense of people getting ready," said Larry Gispert, emergency management director in Hillsborough County, Fla., home to Tampa. "It's like a psychological issue — 'If I don't think about bad things, bad things won't happen.' "
In Nags Head, N.C., Jimmy Austin, a former commercial fisherman who now operates his own seafood market, said he was unfazed by this year's predictions, some of which suggest that the Carolinas will be especially hard hit. He keeps his insurance current, Mr. Austin said, but sees no need for special precautions.
"I don't pay these things a whole lot of mind," said Mr. Austin, 69, a native of the Outer Banks. "Because they say so doesn't mean it's going to happen that way."
In Galveston, Tex., Keith Patterson, a resident there for 30 years, dismissed the urgency of a hurricane survival kit on Thursday. No use worrying about a hurricane until it is near, he said.
"When one is coming, I'll make preparations," said Mr. Patterson, 68, a retired purchasing clerk. "I'll get what I have to get then."
In Florida, the second annual tax holiday on hurricane supplies, from May 21 through June 1, has not drawn an overwhelming response, several store representatives said. But at least one store, the Lowe's in South Fort Myers, was selling more generators than barbecue grills last week, said John Sandford, operations manager there.
At a Home Depot, Brenda and Jerry Dyche of South Fort Myers were shopping for a generator last Wednesday. With that and a new roof, they said, they had no reason to flee.
"We'd just as soon be in our house," Mr. Dyche said. "Where are we going to go? I-75 is a parking lot by the time they evacuate everybody."
Likewise, Ronda Burke, who did not go inland last year to avoid Hurricane Rita but stayed on South Padre Island, Tex., to watch over her new health food cafe, Naturally's, said she would probably do the same this year if necessary.
"We feel about our store like you feel about a person," said Ms. Burke, whose husband took their two young children to higher ground as Hurricane Rita neared the Texas coast (and eventually came ashore far from South Padre Island). "We'd probably ride it out again."
Meanwhile, government agencies are preparing more thoroughly than ever, stockpiling water and food, improving communication technology and outfitting supply trucks with global positioning systems.
Hattiesburg, Miss., is buying $4 million worth of generators for its public buildings and water system. Broward County, Fla., bought a $500,000 command post vehicle to shuttle emergency managers among crisis spots. Many areas will offer more hurricane shelters this year, though officials like Herminio Lorenzo, the Miami-Dade County fire chief, are portraying them bleakly to encourage people to make their own plans.
"The very last place you would want to go is a Red Cross shelter," Mr. Lorenzo said last week at a community hurricane preparation meeting. "You're so close to the people sleeping next to you that you can feel the hair of their mustache on the side of your head."
Some communities are coaxing the public to prepare in a piecemeal way, like saving old milk jugs as emergency water containers and buying one extra can of food on every grocery trip. Escambia County, Fla., is publishing weekly shopping lists to try to get residents to stock up little by little. Martiza Vazquez of Miami said that approach had made preparing more manageable.
"Every time I go to the supermarket I buy four or five cans of tuna or soup or whatever," Ms. Vazquez, 37, said. "I have a checklist that came with the paper the other day, and I am using that to figure out how much is enough."
Waiting for a taxi to take her to her job at McDonald's, Chanavia Williams of Galveston, who makes $5.75 an hour, laughed at the notion of buying provisions to sock away.
"We got food, but I got none saved," said Ms. Williams, 17, the single parent of a 2-year-old, who lives in public housing.
Ms. Williams said she would have to sacrifice buying diapers and baby clothes to afford a hurricane survival kit.
Still, Ms. Williams, who evacuated on a bus as Hurricane Rita neared, said she wanted to prepare, echoing others who had frightening experiences last year. Wayne P. Sallade, emergency management director in Charlotte County, Fla., which was devastated by Hurricane Charley in 2004, said the Mason-Dixon poll numbers on hurricane preparation were skewed by people in states that had not had hurricanes recently.
"You talk to people in cities here, and there's an absolute fever for information," Mr. Sallade said.
That is also true in New Orleans and along the Mississippi coast, where post-Hurricane Katrina anxiety has compelled many to prepare diligently this year.
But in Houston, Joe Laud, spokesman for the city's emergency center, said only 1,000 people with special needs had registered for public transportation to pick them up in an evacuation. During Hurricane Rita, Mr. Laud said, 25,000 such residents needed help evacuating.
Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, at his annual hurricane conference this month in Fort Lauderdale, sourly recalled the chaos after Hurricane Wilma last year, where throngs of residents lined up for free emergency supplies that quickly ran out.
"It makes it a lot harder when people line up in their Lexuses or Mercedeses to get ice and water at a public distribution site when the Publix is open a block away," Mr. Bush said.
As his audience of emergency workers applauded, he added, "I don't know about you, but it sure made me feel better to get that off my chest."
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/31/us/31prepare.html?ei=5090&en=467e4e2eb6fdbce3&ex=1306728000&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
May 31, 2006
As Hurricane Season Looms, States Aim to Scare
By ABBY GOODNOUGH
MIAMI, May 30 — Convinced that tough tactics are needed, officials in hurricane-prone states are trumpeting dire warnings about the storm season that starts on Thursday, preaching self-reliance and prodding the public to prepare early and well.
Cities are circulating storm-preparation checklists, counties are holding hurricane expositions at shopping malls and states are dangling carrots like free home inspections and tax-free storm supplies in hopes of conquering complacency.
But the main strategy, it seems, is to scare the multitudes of people who emergency officials say remain blasé even after last year's record-breaking storm season.
To persuade residents to heed evacuation orders, the Florida Division of Emergency Management is broadcasting public service announcements with recordings of 911 calls placed during Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
"The roof has completely caved in on us," a woman cries as chilling music swells, only to be told that rescuers cannot come out during the storm.
Speaking of the tactics, Craig Fugate, Florida's emergency management director, said last week at a news conference in Tallahassee, "We're going to use a sledgehammer."
This save-yourselves approach comes after government agencies were overwhelmed by pleas for help after last year's storms and strongly criticized as not responding swiftly or thoroughly enough to the public need. Now, officials have said repeatedly, only the elderly, the poor and the disabled should count on the government to help them escape a hurricane or endure its immediate aftermath.
Mississippi, where more than 200 residents died in Hurricane Katrina, unrolled a "Stay Alert. Stay Alive" hurricane awareness campaign in April. State officials told residents what to pack in a "go-kit" for evacuating (flashlight, radio, nonelectric can opener) and, like many others, commanded them to stockpile at least three days' worth of water and food.
Horry County, S.C., home to Myrtle Beach, held a hurricane exposition last month and is giving similar presentations at Kiwanis clubs and homeowners associations.
"The big shortfall is complacency with the community," said Randall Webster, director of Horry County Emergency Management. "Our main theme is, take interest as an individual and make preparations."
But will it work? Emergency management officials groaned this month at a poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., which found that of 1,100 adults along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, 83 percent had taken no steps to fortify their homes this year, 68 percent had no hurricane survival kits and 60 percent had no family disaster plan.
"I can't rightfully say I see any increased sense of people getting ready," said Larry Gispert, emergency management director in Hillsborough County, Fla., home to Tampa. "It's like a psychological issue — 'If I don't think about bad things, bad things won't happen.' "
In Nags Head, N.C., Jimmy Austin, a former commercial fisherman who now operates his own seafood market, said he was unfazed by this year's predictions, some of which suggest that the Carolinas will be especially hard hit. He keeps his insurance current, Mr. Austin said, but sees no need for special precautions.
"I don't pay these things a whole lot of mind," said Mr. Austin, 69, a native of the Outer Banks. "Because they say so doesn't mean it's going to happen that way."
In Galveston, Tex., Keith Patterson, a resident there for 30 years, dismissed the urgency of a hurricane survival kit on Thursday. No use worrying about a hurricane until it is near, he said.
"When one is coming, I'll make preparations," said Mr. Patterson, 68, a retired purchasing clerk. "I'll get what I have to get then."
In Florida, the second annual tax holiday on hurricane supplies, from May 21 through June 1, has not drawn an overwhelming response, several store representatives said. But at least one store, the Lowe's in South Fort Myers, was selling more generators than barbecue grills last week, said John Sandford, operations manager there.
At a Home Depot, Brenda and Jerry Dyche of South Fort Myers were shopping for a generator last Wednesday. With that and a new roof, they said, they had no reason to flee.
"We'd just as soon be in our house," Mr. Dyche said. "Where are we going to go? I-75 is a parking lot by the time they evacuate everybody."
Likewise, Ronda Burke, who did not go inland last year to avoid Hurricane Rita but stayed on South Padre Island, Tex., to watch over her new health food cafe, Naturally's, said she would probably do the same this year if necessary.
"We feel about our store like you feel about a person," said Ms. Burke, whose husband took their two young children to higher ground as Hurricane Rita neared the Texas coast (and eventually came ashore far from South Padre Island). "We'd probably ride it out again."
Meanwhile, government agencies are preparing more thoroughly than ever, stockpiling water and food, improving communication technology and outfitting supply trucks with global positioning systems.
Hattiesburg, Miss., is buying $4 million worth of generators for its public buildings and water system. Broward County, Fla., bought a $500,000 command post vehicle to shuttle emergency managers among crisis spots. Many areas will offer more hurricane shelters this year, though officials like Herminio Lorenzo, the Miami-Dade County fire chief, are portraying them bleakly to encourage people to make their own plans.
"The very last place you would want to go is a Red Cross shelter," Mr. Lorenzo said last week at a community hurricane preparation meeting. "You're so close to the people sleeping next to you that you can feel the hair of their mustache on the side of your head."
Some communities are coaxing the public to prepare in a piecemeal way, like saving old milk jugs as emergency water containers and buying one extra can of food on every grocery trip. Escambia County, Fla., is publishing weekly shopping lists to try to get residents to stock up little by little. Martiza Vazquez of Miami said that approach had made preparing more manageable.
"Every time I go to the supermarket I buy four or five cans of tuna or soup or whatever," Ms. Vazquez, 37, said. "I have a checklist that came with the paper the other day, and I am using that to figure out how much is enough."
Waiting for a taxi to take her to her job at McDonald's, Chanavia Williams of Galveston, who makes $5.75 an hour, laughed at the notion of buying provisions to sock away.
"We got food, but I got none saved," said Ms. Williams, 17, the single parent of a 2-year-old, who lives in public housing.
Ms. Williams said she would have to sacrifice buying diapers and baby clothes to afford a hurricane survival kit.
Still, Ms. Williams, who evacuated on a bus as Hurricane Rita neared, said she wanted to prepare, echoing others who had frightening experiences last year. Wayne P. Sallade, emergency management director in Charlotte County, Fla., which was devastated by Hurricane Charley in 2004, said the Mason-Dixon poll numbers on hurricane preparation were skewed by people in states that had not had hurricanes recently.
"You talk to people in cities here, and there's an absolute fever for information," Mr. Sallade said.
That is also true in New Orleans and along the Mississippi coast, where post-Hurricane Katrina anxiety has compelled many to prepare diligently this year.
But in Houston, Joe Laud, spokesman for the city's emergency center, said only 1,000 people with special needs had registered for public transportation to pick them up in an evacuation. During Hurricane Rita, Mr. Laud said, 25,000 such residents needed help evacuating.
Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, at his annual hurricane conference this month in Fort Lauderdale, sourly recalled the chaos after Hurricane Wilma last year, where throngs of residents lined up for free emergency supplies that quickly ran out.
"It makes it a lot harder when people line up in their Lexuses or Mercedeses to get ice and water at a public distribution site when the Publix is open a block away," Mr. Bush said.
As his audience of emergency workers applauded, he added, "I don't know about you, but it sure made me feel better to get that off my chest."
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
How to Protect Yourself from Bird Flu, from the Harvard Health Letter
Very much worth considering:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060523/netufns1.html?.v=12
How to Protect Yourself from Bird Flu, from the Harvard Health Letter
Tuesday May 23, 5:20 am ET
BOSTON, May 23 /PRNewswire/ -- News media are full of scary headlines about the H5N1 bird flu virus and the possibility that it might spread among the human population. Yet researchers note that no human flu pandemic has ever involved a flu virus of the H5 subtype. On the other hand, the H5N1 virus has already jumped from birds to pigs and cats, as well as infecting some people, suggesting it might have the capacity to develop into a flu that passes directly from one human to another. So should we be afraid -- or cynical?
Neither, says the June issue of the Harvard Health Letter. No one knows for sure if H5N1 is going to explode or fizzle, or whether a different flu virus with greater pandemic potential might be out there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060523/netufns1.html?.v=12
How to Protect Yourself from Bird Flu, from the Harvard Health Letter
Tuesday May 23, 5:20 am ET
BOSTON, May 23 /PRNewswire/ -- News media are full of scary headlines about the H5N1 bird flu virus and the possibility that it might spread among the human population. Yet researchers note that no human flu pandemic has ever involved a flu virus of the H5 subtype. On the other hand, the H5N1 virus has already jumped from birds to pigs and cats, as well as infecting some people, suggesting it might have the capacity to develop into a flu that passes directly from one human to another. So should we be afraid -- or cynical?
Neither, says the June issue of the Harvard Health Letter. No one knows for sure if H5N1 is going to explode or fizzle, or whether a different flu virus with greater pandemic potential might be out there.
Whether the H5N1 virus will "make the jump" and spread among humans is uncertain, but here are some tips you can take now to protect yourself just in case:
- Get a regular flu shot this fall. It won't protect you from bird flu,
but it will reduce your risk of getting regular flu and bird flu at the
same time. - Don't count on antiviral medications. Some experts say there is "no
credible evidence" that these drugs help against bird flu, and their
use may create resistant strains. - Wash your hands regularly.
- Stay away from birds and their droppings.
- Stock up on water and nonperishable groceries.
Source: Harvard Health Publications
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Sunday, May 21, 2006
Resolve to Repel Radical Islam
The recent letter to President Bush by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to have been largely ignored in the West as being irrelevant bloviation and just all-too typical denunciation of the ways of the west.
However, there are some who view it as being a rather formal religious pronouncement or even a pseudo-diplomatic declaration of war on the United States. Whatever its purpose, it does paint an expansive picture of the intent of the Iranian regime, as it positions itself to inspire and drive the global jihad beyond the level of Bin Laden-esque hit-and-run operations.
The article linked below is a thoughtful look at what may be transpiring in the foreign Islamic world. I include here only the concluding passage, but I'd encourage you to read the entire article to be sure you remain adequately aware and prepared for the growing risk of large-scale warfare waged across lines of religious ideology. (Note that the author's reference to "liberal democrats" encompasses the entire traditional political spectrum of the west.)
Reading Ahmadinejad in Washington
The Iranian president's letter needs to be taken seriously.
by Hillel Fradkin 05/29/2006, Volume 011, Issue 35
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/246utlpf.asp?pg=1
... what is known, or what should be known and deeply grasped, is that everything Ahmadinejad--and for that matter the radical movement as a whole--does is guided by an ideological vision and commitment. It needs to be addressed as such. For the moment and not only for the moment, this requires that liberal democrats declare that they have no intention of abandoning their way of life and see no need to do so, since they are fully prepared to defend it and because that way of life provides the resources--political, economic, and military--to defend itself.
It is necessary to inform Ahmadinejad and his radical allies that they are in for a real fight. This may not suffice to lead them to question their fundamental assumption and inspiration that we are on the run. But it may give pause to the many Muslims and non-Muslims standing on the sidelines, who see radical success and do not see American or Western resolve.
Of course the best person to make the first such declaration is President Bush--not as a Christian but as the world's leading liberal democrat. And not to Ahmadinejad, for whom a direct reply would be a victory, but to the Iranian people, the Muslim world, and the non-Muslim world.
Hillel Fradkin is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and coeditor of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
However, there are some who view it as being a rather formal religious pronouncement or even a pseudo-diplomatic declaration of war on the United States. Whatever its purpose, it does paint an expansive picture of the intent of the Iranian regime, as it positions itself to inspire and drive the global jihad beyond the level of Bin Laden-esque hit-and-run operations.
The article linked below is a thoughtful look at what may be transpiring in the foreign Islamic world. I include here only the concluding passage, but I'd encourage you to read the entire article to be sure you remain adequately aware and prepared for the growing risk of large-scale warfare waged across lines of religious ideology. (Note that the author's reference to "liberal democrats" encompasses the entire traditional political spectrum of the west.)
Reading Ahmadinejad in Washington
The Iranian president's letter needs to be taken seriously.
by Hillel Fradkin 05/29/2006, Volume 011, Issue 35
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/246utlpf.asp?pg=1
... what is known, or what should be known and deeply grasped, is that everything Ahmadinejad--and for that matter the radical movement as a whole--does is guided by an ideological vision and commitment. It needs to be addressed as such. For the moment and not only for the moment, this requires that liberal democrats declare that they have no intention of abandoning their way of life and see no need to do so, since they are fully prepared to defend it and because that way of life provides the resources--political, economic, and military--to defend itself.
It is necessary to inform Ahmadinejad and his radical allies that they are in for a real fight. This may not suffice to lead them to question their fundamental assumption and inspiration that we are on the run. But it may give pause to the many Muslims and non-Muslims standing on the sidelines, who see radical success and do not see American or Western resolve.
Of course the best person to make the first such declaration is President Bush--not as a Christian but as the world's leading liberal democrat. And not to Ahmadinejad, for whom a direct reply would be a victory, but to the Iranian people, the Muslim world, and the non-Muslim world.
Hillel Fradkin is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and coeditor of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Thursday, May 11, 2006
What is it that Worries Us Today?
The 21st century is turning out to be the age of panic and anxiety ...... or at least a time when we're bombarded with unprecedented reinforcement from the media that we OUGHT to be worried about something, by golly.
Every week there's something new to absorb through our outer calm. Sometimes, there are DAILY developments that need to be swallowed and digested. Eventually we get our fill.
Top 10 "Final Tomorrows"
Let's see ... in the last month or so, I've been told by customers that THIS is it ... the time and issue that is undoubtedly about to be our undoing ("... and so please be sure to send that order asap, 'cause I want to be sure to take delivery before TSHTF") --
1. The impending attack of Iran by the U.S. and Israel, using nuclear weapons, which will surely bring about a global apocalypse.
2. The impending attack by Iran on the U.S. and Israel, using nuclear weapons, which will surely bring about a global apocalypse.
3. The Bird Flu is about to start (or already has started) going head-to-head in the beginning of a human pandemic that will surely bring about a global apocalypse.
4. The Bird Flu is a total fabrication by the media (or by the global elite) designed to bring about a global apocalypse.
5. The U.S. and global economies are about to catastrophically deflate, bringing about a global apocalypse.
6. Numerous countries around the world are about to stop trading in dollars, a move which will collapse the US economy and end up bringing about a global apocalypse.
7. Certain communist/socialist South American countries are joining together with U.S. enemies elsewhere to counter the power the U.S. wields in the global economy. (Which may or may not create a global apocalypse)
8. The illegal immigrant issue is about to spiral into a divisive civil war in the U.S. that will result in a global apocalypse.
9. Al Qaeda is moving into position to launch a massive, coordinated attack on the U.S. and western interests. The hope is to create the beginning of a global apocalypse and a Muslim paradise.
10. Geez ... I'm at 10 already, and I haven't yet mentioned cometary fragments, warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico before the start of hurricane season, earthquake swarms, floods, droughts, caldara volcanoes, NSA spying on Americans, conspiracy and intrigue reaching across all organizational boundaries, political hunting and driving accidents, etc.
Get Anchored
Here's the real deal. For all the scary headlines and for all the antidepressant medications that are part of our daily life today, a person needs to develop a seriously oily disposition that will allow for all the stuff raining down to roll right off.
How to do that?
1. Connect spiritually with your Creator.
2. Disconnect literally from the media and the internet amateurs who daily are competing for your adrenaline.
3. Enjoy your family, friends, and your everyday life.
4. Nurture a healthy passion that you can feel good about feeding.
5. Allot a small amount of your time and resources to preparing logically for bad times. Do it, then forget it.
THE END (or not)
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Sunday, May 07, 2006
Ideal Time to Place a Mountain House Order is Right Now
Mountain House's production cycle replenishing their #10 can inventory will be completed in the next week. All backorders will be shipping post haste. For those of you holding your breath waiting for your March order, you should have your food by the end of the month.For those of you anxious to get into the queue, now is the ideal time to do so. Any orders placed in the next week should deliver in about a month.
FYI, a couple of weeks from now, for all I know the situation could be totally different and there could again be inventory issues cropping up, once the demand surge starts peaking again.
Here are the larger package deals that I am always taking orders on (email me to discuss, if you'd like): http://stores.ebay.com/REFUGE-offered-by-Safecastle-LLC_Mountain-House-Food_W0QQcolZ2QQdirZQ2d1QQfsubZ15QQftidZ2QQtZkm
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Friday, May 05, 2006
Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand
This article is right on the mark reflecting the situation for those of us in the preparedness business. What it doesn't mention is that only about 10% of the U.S. population who are familiar with the Avian Flu have done anything in the way of preparing for a pandemic to this point (see poll results). Even that 10% has swamped our little industry. Consider what will happen when a significant portion of the rest are prompted to suddenly do something.
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/living/health/14500986.htm
Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand
JIM GRAHAM
Associated Press
HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.
Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.
There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.
"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."
Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.
Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.
"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."
Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.
Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."
Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.
Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.
Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.
A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.
If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.
"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.
In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.
At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.
"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.
In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.
(for more, see the link)
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/living/health/14500986.htm
Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand
JIM GRAHAM
Associated Press
HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.
Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.
There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.
"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."
Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.
Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.
"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."
Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.
Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."
Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.
Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.
Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.
A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.
If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.
"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.
In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.
At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.
"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.
In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.
(for more, see the link)
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Sunday, April 30, 2006
Influenza Pandemic Simulation - MUST READ
This well-done pandemic simulation and resulting report by Booz Allen Hamilton is a must-read for anyone keeping an eye on the threat for a pandemic on the horizon.
It's easy reading and there are many worthwhile, thought-provoking points to take in.
One such point to ponder ... "ALL SYSTEMS will fail by day 28." We're not talking one company or one industry or one sector's systems--but rather all global systems--infrastructure, utilities, corporate, emergency response, communications, governmental, etc.
http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Influenza_Pandemic_Simulation.pdf
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
It's easy reading and there are many worthwhile, thought-provoking points to take in.
One such point to ponder ... "ALL SYSTEMS will fail by day 28." We're not talking one company or one industry or one sector's systems--but rather all global systems--infrastructure, utilities, corporate, emergency response, communications, governmental, etc.
http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Influenza_Pandemic_Simulation.pdf
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
A Few of My Favorite Prep-Related Sites
For some odd reason, a couple of months ago, the Blogspot template I use (and other Blogspot templates I tried as well) started dropping my left-column info--bio, favorite links, etc.--down to the very bottom of the page if I did anything at all to alter the basic format. So I had to remove all those favorite links to keep that left column floating to the top of the page. Blogspot has been non-responsive in my efforts to get a fix.
Anyway, FYI, here are a few of my current favorites that keep me going back for more:
www.survivalblog.com ... James Wesley Rawles' blossoming compilation of some excellent articles and snippets of survival and preparedness advice.
www.goldismoney.info ... A well-attended forum focused on precious metals, preparedness, and more.
http://www.timebomb2000.com ... A prep-related forum that has been around since before the turn of the century.
http://www.falfiles.com/forums/ ... A very comprehensive forum site with a focus on guns and ammo, but also with an excellent Marketplace section.
www.survivalmonkey.com ... A core group of solid, well-balanced individuals camp-out here, in a growing discussion forum.
http://jrnyquist.com/ ... Jeff Nyquist's scholarly commentary is always thought-provoking.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/ ... Not given over to hyperbole, this site is a gem for prospecting golden nuggets of insight into the counterterror challenges faced around the world.
www.safecastle.com ... I need to plug my own store site when I get the chance, don't I? If I do say so myself, a rather unique blend of product offerings, form the premier line of prefabricated steel storm and fallout shelters to Katadyn water filters, Mountain House freeze dreid emergency food, and on and on.
Anyway, FYI, here are a few of my current favorites that keep me going back for more:
www.survivalblog.com ... James Wesley Rawles' blossoming compilation of some excellent articles and snippets of survival and preparedness advice.
www.goldismoney.info ... A well-attended forum focused on precious metals, preparedness, and more.
http://www.timebomb2000.com ... A prep-related forum that has been around since before the turn of the century.
http://www.falfiles.com/forums/ ... A very comprehensive forum site with a focus on guns and ammo, but also with an excellent Marketplace section.
www.survivalmonkey.com ... A core group of solid, well-balanced individuals camp-out here, in a growing discussion forum.
http://jrnyquist.com/ ... Jeff Nyquist's scholarly commentary is always thought-provoking.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/ ... Not given over to hyperbole, this site is a gem for prospecting golden nuggets of insight into the counterterror challenges faced around the world.
www.safecastle.com ... I need to plug my own store site when I get the chance, don't I? If I do say so myself, a rather unique blend of product offerings, form the premier line of prefabricated steel storm and fallout shelters to Katadyn water filters, Mountain House freeze dreid emergency food, and on and on.
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Sunday, April 23, 2006
ATF should be a convenience store, not a government agency
I wish I could sell some of these T-shirts, but the folks who sell them are alright folks who retain all rights to selling them online. Give 'em a look-see if these tickle your fancy as they do mine. There are plenty more than what you see here. http://www.thoseshirts.com/tshirts.html
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
Saturday, April 22, 2006
Are You Adapting Well?
Being prepared for a new dynamic most often conjures up images of sudden, catastrophic change. One such nightmare-come-true was when Hurricane Katrina transformed life on the Gulf Coast for hundreds of thousands. Who knows when life will get back to normal there for residents in southernmost Louisiana and Alabama? Yes, that is a type of scenario most of my customers envision and prepare for. They also talk about impending dangers from global war, WMD terrorism, economic catastrophe, pandemic, and more. The general expectation is a sudden, total dissolution of the world of convenience and safety we are comfortable in today, and they want to be ready for the chaos that will surely ensue.
There are always ominous signs on the horizon of major cataclysms brewing. But few ever come about and when they do, they most often only impact limited populations. Yet, our deeply-rooted Hollywood frame-of-reference keeps many waiting for the apocolyptic hammer to fall in the next scene.
Weathering Carves Canyons, Shapes Mountains
The plain truth is, life is about constant change and adaptation. In our modern world, change can come about in singularly spectacular fashion, though almost always it is actually incrementally and as a result of countless contributing factors.
More often than not, the great life-changing events we ought to be prepared for are recognizable coming around the bend. Yet most people are equipped only to be spectators in the big game and not suited to jump on their horse and ride.
The sharpest prepared individuals anticipate, adapt, reposition continuously, and ultimately thrive in the continuously newer realities being born daily.
Little by little, our lives are being weathered by circumstance. Sometimes, it's a slow drip ... occasionally a series of deluges and gales that recast our perspective.
Survive or Thrive?
There really isn't much difference between those who want to survive and those who are prepared to thrive. The dividing line is attitude.
Few, if any, really embrace change for the sake of change, but when you can accept that it is inevitable and you see it coming, you might as well go with it and make sure you and yours can stay ahead of the pack.
There's not much point in being among the multitude who choose to try to stand fast and grumble and complain about things, when it only serves to delay them from taking action and adapting to the earliest opportunities that are there for those who will seize them. In fact, sooner or later, that tendency will trample most who choose that path.
Put Some Purpose in Your Program
The global dynamic IS changing. There are going to be some heart-rending and painful collisions and upheavals. The world is full of people who like to gripe about new directions, but there are very few who try to do something to make a difference ... in even the smallest, productive way. I'm not talking about changing the course of history ... I mean just taking the rudder of your own boat.
Preparedness in it's most basic manifestation means being adaptable to change--sudden or gradual. Are you adjusting your course in life to ensure you come out ahead, rain or shine?
Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com
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