Ideal Time to Place a Mountain House Order is Right Now

Mountain House's production cycle replenishing their #10 can inventory will be completed in the next week. All backorders will be shipping post haste. For those of you holding your breath waiting for your March order, you should have your food by the end of the month.

For those of you anxious to get into the queue, now is the ideal time to do so. Any orders placed in the next week should deliver in about a month.

FYI, a couple of weeks from now, for all I know the situation could be totally different and there could again be inventory issues cropping up, once the demand surge starts peaking again.

Here are the larger package deals that I am always taking orders on (email me to discuss, if you'd like): http://stores.ebay.com/REFUGE-offered-by-Safecastle-LLC_Mountain-House-Food_W0QQcolZ2QQdirZQ2d1QQfsubZ15QQftidZ2QQtZkm

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand

This article is right on the mark reflecting the situation for those of us in the preparedness business. What it doesn't mention is that only about 10% of the U.S. population who are familiar with the Avian Flu have done anything in the way of preparing for a pandemic to this point (see poll results). Even that 10% has swamped our little industry. Consider what will happen when a significant portion of the rest are prompted to suddenly do something.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/living/health/14500986.htm

Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand
JIM GRAHAM
Associated Press

HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.
Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.

There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.

"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."

Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.

Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.

"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."

Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.

Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."

Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.

Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.

Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.

If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.

"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.
In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.

At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.

"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.
In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.

(for more, see the link)

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Influenza Pandemic Simulation - MUST READ

This well-done pandemic simulation and resulting report by Booz Allen Hamilton is a must-read for anyone keeping an eye on the threat for a pandemic on the horizon.

It's easy reading and there are many worthwhile, thought-provoking points to take in.

One such point to ponder ... "ALL SYSTEMS will fail by day 28." We're not talking one company or one industry or one sector's systems--but rather all global systems--infrastructure, utilities, corporate, emergency response, communications, governmental, etc.

http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Influenza_Pandemic_Simulation.pdf

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

A Few of My Favorite Prep-Related Sites

For some odd reason, a couple of months ago, the Blogspot template I use (and other Blogspot templates I tried as well) started dropping my left-column info--bio, favorite links, etc.--down to the very bottom of the page if I did anything at all to alter the basic format. So I had to remove all those favorite links to keep that left column floating to the top of the page. Blogspot has been non-responsive in my efforts to get a fix.

Anyway, FYI, here are a few of my current favorites that keep me going back for more:

www.survivalblog.com ... James Wesley Rawles' blossoming compilation of some excellent articles and snippets of survival and preparedness advice.

www.goldismoney.info ... A well-attended forum focused on precious metals, preparedness, and more.

http://www.timebomb2000.com ... A prep-related forum that has been around since before the turn of the century.

http://www.falfiles.com/forums/ ... A very comprehensive forum site with a focus on guns and ammo, but also with an excellent Marketplace section.

www.survivalmonkey.com ... A core group of solid, well-balanced individuals camp-out here, in a growing discussion forum.

http://jrnyquist.com/ ... Jeff Nyquist's scholarly commentary is always thought-provoking.

http://counterterrorismblog.org/ ... Not given over to hyperbole, this site is a gem for prospecting golden nuggets of insight into the counterterror challenges faced around the world.

www.safecastle.com ... I need to plug my own store site when I get the chance, don't I? If I do say so myself, a rather unique blend of product offerings, form the premier line of prefabricated steel storm and fallout shelters to Katadyn water filters, Mountain House freeze dreid emergency food, and on and on.

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

ATF should be a convenience store, not a government agency

I wish I could sell some of these T-shirts, but the folks who sell them are alright folks who retain all rights to selling them online. Give 'em a look-see if these tickle your fancy as they do mine. There are plenty more than what you see here.

http://www.thoseshirts.com/tshirts.html

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Are You Adapting Well?

Being prepared for a new dynamic most often conjures up images of sudden, catastrophic change. One such nightmare-come-true was when Hurricane Katrina transformed life on the Gulf Coast for hundreds of thousands. Who knows when life will get back to normal there for residents in southernmost Louisiana and Alabama?

Yes, that is a type of scenario most of my customers envision and prepare for. They also talk about impending dangers from global war, WMD terrorism, economic catastrophe, pandemic, and more. The general expectation is a sudden, total dissolution of the world of convenience and safety we are comfortable in today, and they want to be ready for the chaos that will surely ensue.

There are always ominous signs on the horizon of major cataclysms brewing. But few ever come about and when they do, they most often only impact limited populations. Yet, our deeply-rooted Hollywood frame-of-reference keeps many waiting for the apocolyptic hammer to fall in the next scene.

Weathering Carves Canyons, Shapes Mountains

The plain truth is, life is about constant change and adaptation. In our modern world, change can come about in singularly spectacular fashion, though almost always it is actually incrementally and as a result of countless contributing factors.

More often than not, the great life-changing events we ought to be prepared for are recognizable coming around the bend. Yet most people are equipped only to be spectators in the big game and not suited to jump on their horse and ride.

The sharpest prepared individuals anticipate, adapt, reposition continuously, and ultimately thrive in the continuously newer realities being born daily.

Little by little, our lives are being weathered by circumstance. Sometimes, it's a slow drip ... occasionally a series of deluges and gales that recast our perspective.

Survive or Thrive?

There really isn't much difference between those who want to survive and those who are prepared to thrive. The dividing line is attitude.

Few, if any, really embrace change for the sake of change, but when you can accept that it is inevitable and you see it coming, you might as well go with it and make sure you and yours can stay ahead of the pack.

There's not much point in being among the multitude who choose to try to stand fast and grumble and complain about things, when it only serves to delay them from taking action and adapting to the earliest opportunities that are there for those who will seize them. In fact, sooner or later, that tendency will trample most who choose that path.

Put Some Purpose in Your Program

The global dynamic IS changing. There are going to be some heart-rending and painful collisions and upheavals. The world is full of people who like to gripe about new directions, but there are very few who try to do something to make a difference ... in even the smallest, productive way. I'm not talking about changing the course of history ... I mean just taking the rudder of your own boat.

Preparedness in it's most basic manifestation means being adaptable to change--sudden or gradual. Are you adjusting your course in life to ensure you come out ahead, rain or shine?

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Mistaken Entitledness is a Core Global Issue

Short and sweet ... we are experiencing a period in history when most people don't feel required to earn their way in life. Instead, they are "entitled" to their place in the sun, whatever they deem that position to be.

It's an attitude that can can be found at the core of much of the unrest across the globe today. It's an attitude fostered by certain religious beliefs, by a few international organizations, and by political groups clearly leaning in one alarming direction.

The ultimate result of promoting entitlement, in whatever flavor a people will buy, is turmoil. Where we as a society are arriving today is at an intersection of animosity, distrust, and fear. People everywhere are being pushed and pulled together in a calamitous chain reaction.

The solutions to our various crises are not topical remedies to be applied like a soothing salve. It will take a major collective mindset change ... and that will not come about easily.

As You Sow, So Shall You Reap

Those who embrace a responsible work ethic are always the ones who come out on top, historically, eventually ... individually and culturally.

This is no time to allow yourself to be sucked into the sweeping flow down the chasm, becoming one of the majority who choose to emote and obstruct rather than being among those who are determined to promote and construct.

The principal value that will always be the way to least risk and greatest reward is to do for yourself and to apply yourself according to what you hope to accomplish. Talking about it won't cut it.

If you feel tough times are around the corner, now is the time to prepare. You have to do something about it. No one else will do it for you ... nor should they.


Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Gold, Guns, and Grub - the Rebirth of Preparedness

There are a number of possible technical economic explanations for the ongoing surge in precious metal prices, but there's no denying the fact that the prices of gold and silver ARE climbing steadily with worldwide popular demand. And although there are always efforts afoot to whittle away at our right to bear arms, U.S. gun sales continue to cook.

I don't commercially deal in either of those commodities, but I CAN personally testify to the fact that freeze-dried food sales as well as selected other key preparedness product types are similarly enjoying strong, even unprecedented growth across the U.S.

Gold, guns, and grub (that stores for lengthy periods of time) are traditional refuges for the crisis preparedness "investor." As the number of disturbing and disastrous headlines multiply and speculators editorialize about scenarios for the doom of our life of comfort and convenience, more and more people buy into the logic of prepositioning their household, just in case.

And why not? These are unusually practical and low-risk uses for one's discretionary funds. Better to invest in insurance for the future than in transitory entertainment that delivers nothing beyond momentary detachment from reality.

It's a trend still in relatively early stages. The corporate monarchies are yet to recognize the implications, but with a bit more time or a couple more Katrina-like wake-up calls, it's inevitable.

H5N1's potential for worldwide disruptions, far beyond what was ever envisioned for Y2K, does have the attention of the movers and shakers. It's a big impetus for current movement in this market. Are you ahead of the curve?

See: "How the Bird Flu Experts Prepare"

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

The Prudent Prepare

In the Crisis Preparedness sandbox we play in, most "veterans" come to adapt to the market rhythms that are fairly regular in cadence and which are being pounded out by the media.

From a large media perspective, it's 100% about engaging increasingly jaded and numbed audiences; gaining marketshare; and commanding higher ad revenues. Simplified--sensational angles equate to growing shareholder returns. And fledgling media outlets play the same game, just on a smaller scale.

For vulnerable readers, viewers, and listeners, the incessant news cycles thumping out the thrill or outrage of the hour sometimes means getting hooked to a roller coaster, and eventually yearning to regain some feeling of control over one's course in life.

Emotion Drives Reaction

I wish I had the time and resources to conduct a proper survey of the markets, but without it, I can only guess ... so I will ... I'd wager that half the folks who come into crisis preparedness, do so out of an emotional reaction to some news story or stories that are eliciting a sense of helplessness.

Suspicion, fear, anger, anxiety, hopelessness ... it can all channel people into feeling the need to do SOMETHING to counter whatever it is they are in the shadow of.

Reacting can be a healthy and productive response. Or if taken to an extreme, it can become a greater problem than the original anxiety source.

Methodical Remedies

I believe in preparedness as being a logical, intelligent way to position one's self for the future ... a future that in many ways is beyond our real control. To have a partial focus in life toward systematically and appropriately preparing for life's less-pleasant possibilities helps build personal peace of mind.

In fact, that's really how I present my crisis preparedness business--I am in the business of selling peace of mind.

Different folks need different measures of security and they instinctively come to realize what it is they need to find some improved inner peace. Oftentimes, it's going to mean a systematic approach to preparedness, wanting to build up one's household defenses against a wide range of perceived threats. Occasionally, it's more about reacting to one imminent threat that looms large. Either way, taking proper steps to offset or counter the risk is a material remedy that can deliver peace TODAY.

Real Threats Need Real Responses

The world today is full of real threats to our well being, but at the same time, it's important to note that those threats are almost always overinflated in the popular media because of the nature of that business. Today, the Doom du Jour is a selection of three specials: an H5N1 pandemic, the Iranian nuclear crisis, and surging ethnic tensions around the world. Pick your poison, then seek your personal antidote.

Do what you need to do, then disengage and focus your attention on life's other real demands.

For perspective--the world has always been a dangerous place. It was quite a while ago Euripides said: "Chance always fights on the side of the prudent."

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Still Need Mountain House Emergency Food?

The stampede for Mountain House emergency food (as well as other storage foods) over the last several weeks happened to coincide with our extraordinary March opportunity to get in on some special bulk buying at prices unseen in years.

Those of you who took advantage--thank you. You helped make our buy a stunning record-breaker no matter how you look at it.

Though we weren't the main problem in the mid-March depletion of Mountain House's emergency food, our volume was indicative of what was and is happening all over--people are preparing for the worst. As are government and corporate groups. H5N1 is a major risk on the horizon, and stocking up on storage food is one important step in starting to circle the wagons.

Still Taking Orders

Our very best pricing offerings in March were a limited time opportunity. But we continue to establish Safecastle LLC as the very best place to get your Mountain House food, at the best prices possible.

The need for storage food remains critical. If you are not where you want to be with your emergency food, and you'd like to get the best available freeze dried food out there--stuff that is officially rated at a 30-year shelf life ... contact me directly for the best prices.

See our current packages listed in our store. Note that, as Mountain House rebuilds inventory, our ordered varieties are shipping in stages over the next several weeks, with the latest foods produced and delivered by mid-May. (Not too bad, considering how things MIGHT get in the near future.)

Get Ready, Seriously ... www.safecastle.com

Last Week of Special Mountain House Deals

Only seven days left of the extraordinary opportunity to stock up on the best long-term storage food on the planet, at the best prices anywhere ... and with free shipping to the entire U.S.A.

I will not be able to repeat this offer in the future, so if you need emergency food, please consider this as the best chance you'll have. I have 150-can and 48-can packages to which you can make substitutions ... or you can custom-build your own bulk package.

Note that demand for this food is so high right now, last week Mountain House was wiped out of inventory in the #10 cans. That means our orders are now shipping in stages as the food is made available, with the last of the food in an order possibly shipping as late as mid-May.

To get the prices, email me at jcrefuge@safecastle.net

Payment must be received and cleared by noon, Central time, March 31 to qualify.

To check out the packages, see my store: www.safecastle.net

Being Buoyant in Stormy Seas

I woke up this morning to a mind-pic of three inflatable buoys bobbing around in frothy waves.

My immediate understanding was that those buoys were the proverbial "faith, hope, and love" holding me up through the churning realities of day-to-day life.

There is of course the obvious spiritual meaning of that choice biblical nugget that "these three remain: faith, hope, and love. But the greatest of these is love." 1 Corinthians 13:13
If you haven't embraced that truth as yet, I would encourage you to find the substantive meaning in that insight as it applies to your place in the universe. They are virtues that abide all.

Still, for many readers, another immediate and relevant context for these treasures can be had right here on the ground where we live today--in a modern life filled with difficulties and dangers. Yes, establish your relationship with your maker and cultivate it. But beyond that, so too, these virtues serve you well applied to developing your own self confidence, to your household and community relationships, and even applied to your preparedness activities.

Preparedness Delivers Peace

Along the same lines of the principle that has proven itself through history--that there is peace through strength--so too is there peace of mind to be had via personal readiness. That is, if you are reasonably equipped to deal with whatever life can throw your way, then you are going to be feel pretty good about your future.

In terms of my own preparedness and how I keep my head above water ...

Faith: I trust that God always provides for me as needed, and that He blesses my household accordingly. I also believe that He has steered us onto our present course and that we are well situated for events anticipated and unanticipated. It's a good feeling to be able to trust that we have done what is wise and reasonable.

Hope: With a Christian faith, we always have hope of eternal life in Christ Jesus. We also have hope in this life of coming out on top of any trials and tribulations, since we are given only that which we are capable of enduring. Being physically prepared bolsters our position of strength and allows us to extend a positive and beneficial outlook toward the future. It also permits us to be able to afford to cheerfully influence and impact the lives of others around us.

Love: "The greatest of these is love." Love God, love yourself, love your family and your neighbors. It's a powerful virtue--to be able to reach out and give of what you have and of who you are. I fail in that more often than I care to admit, but in terms of preparedness and being involved in the business, I can truthfully say that it is a labor of love ... a heartfelt effort to encourage others to find peace and buoyancy in a balanced, systematic approach to the future.

Tornado and Hurricane Seasons are Around the Corner

Depending on where you live, the weather forecast will be taking on new importance again soon.

Hurricanes, tornadoes, and strong storms with straight-line winds wil shred parts of America this year, as they do every year. One only needs to be in the crosshairs once or twice before you start to think that maybe there's a smarter way of dealing with mother nature.

Two years ago, after a couple of run-ins with tornadoes, I found the ideal prefabricated steel shelter to put underground beneath my new addition. It was strong, full-featured, and reasonably priced. I financed it into my home addition deal and we have had the most reassuring sense of well-being ever since.

In fact, after living with that peace of mind for a while, I decided I wanted to help bring that well being to others as well ... and I started working with my shelter builder to bring his best-in-class product into new markets. (We build the shelters to spec--these listings are just straightforward examples of what can be done--your project may be much smaller, cheaper, or even a lot larger--no problem--let us give you a quote.)

Backlog Season

This is the time of the year when people around the country start thinking seriously of building homes, additions, and even just putting in that much-needed storm shelter. Our builder has been doing his thing for almost a dozen years, with about 500 shelters installed all over the U.S., including many FEMA projects. His product is unsurpassed in safety and quality by anyone out there regardless of price.

If you're thinking this is the year you might finally get your own all-risk peace of mind, the time is now to get your homework done and get on our list. The list is growing as it always does this time of year.

Are the Good Old Days Gone Forever?

The future never turns out the way we envision. Back in the '60s, when I was in elementary school, the future was epitomized by "The Jetsons." Everything was going to be sleek, fast, and cool. Problems were going to be trivial compared to the technologies we would be able to bring to bear on them.

In the '70s, there were hints that in our future, the world was headed for globalization. The progressive idea was about eliminating international tensions and utilizing available resources to improve the average condition of all the world's people. Environmentalism was at the forefront in people's minds at this stage. Compassion was embraced as common sense.

In the '80s, technological advancements, to include the genesis of personal computing, started to actually shrink the gaps and spaces between the world's cultures. And it was of course the emerging global economy and the sudden demise of the Cold War mindset that threw popular perception of the future onto a whole other level.

The '90s saw geopolitical advances that tried to keep pace with the continuing techno-compression of the collage of global cultures. The corporatization of life everywhere seemed to be driving us toward a future that would eventually blur the boundaries between our differences. We would all one day get along because we would all be the same, watching, thinking, buying, eating, and believing the same things, wherever we happened to be on the earth. "Don't worry. Be Happy."

Then the long-anticipated new millenium and the false fear of Y2K chaos surely implied a bright and sunny future for all. No regrets, keep on stoking the global engines of progress as we understood them to mean. We think we can, we think we can ...

But then, we seemed to reach the end of the pavement. The bumps and potholes started to jostle us around and indeed we had to overhaul our collective view of the future because a small but menacing segment of the global population did not like where the future was taking us. Violence on innocence entered the equation.

The future suddenly was put on hold.

The war on terror, we are reminded continuously, will be a long-term struggle. The segment of radical Islam that is inexplicably growing its core base of adherents to wage war with a future of commercial and cultural pluralism is a large shadowy enemy that leaves few targets for our sophisticated political and military sensibilities.

But how much time do we have to adapt to the new reality? At stake is the future and the power to envision it. The enemy seeks to define what life and death on this planet should be about. How long before we come to grips with the dangerous intent and growing potential rolling toward our best laid plans?

It will take another major assault on our comfortably superior way of life ... probably one far worse than we care to even imagine today before we become willing to do what needs to be done. So we are allowing the enemy time ... essentially giving away this precious time to those who are investing it in creating an abominable future for all of us.

Weapon of Mass Hysteria

A good reminder for us that the dreaded "dirty bombs" that could one day soon be visited upon the west will not likely be nearly as dangerous as many seem to shriek.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1139395520314&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Mar. 2, 2006 10:54
Weapon of Mass Hysteria
By ERIK SCHECHTER

Around four years ago, a team of security professionals from a Washington think tank played a game of Let's Pretend. The group parked a yellow, 66-passenger school bus on Independence Avenue, on the National Capitol Mall, near an overhead rail line.

Congress was in session that morning; people were flocking to national monuments. The weather was also nice that day - sunny, warm, with low humidity - and there was a steady breeze blowing in from the southeast. All the necessary conditions were there.

The team from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) then imagined that their bus was packed with 4,000 pounds of TNT and a pound and a half of radioactive cesium-137. What would happen to Washington, DC, they wondered, if the bus went ka-boom?

Interestingly, most of the pretend casualties were caused by the regular old TNT and flying debris; the damage from the cesium was negligible by comparison. However, notes Phil Anderson, the man who headed the CSIS team, the fact that radiation was involved in the blast "had an enormous psychological impact on the public." The so-called dirty bomb proved to be a weapon of mass hysteria.

Radiation is "something unseen and mysterious for most people," says Ivan Oelrich, a nuclear physicist with the Federation of Atomic Scientists.

Even if the radiation levels are not particularly high, they will not return to their homes or places of business. Unfortunately, terrorists know this as well and while a nuclear weapon is beyond their grasp, radioactive materials are not. In fact, the modern world is filled with the stuff. ...

... Fortunately, even if al-Qaida or another terrorist group was to detonate a dirty bomb in a city and radioactive material would be dispersed over a wide area, it is unlikely that it would be enough to do any real harm.

"The so-called safety limits for radiation exposure are exceedingly conservative," explains Fred Singer, physicist and president of the Arlington-based Science and Environmental Policy Project. "You can exceed them by a factor of 10 or 100 and not suffer any damage."

In fact, a dangerous concentration of radiation would melt most containers - but try telling that to the public right after a non-conventional terrorist attack. Citizens would clamor for a very expensive clean-up, draining the public coffers; businesses would come to a halt.

So how does one overcome the fear?

"The answer is more education," Anderson insists.

So while others may be shrieking, you don't have to be freaking. Understand the threat and know your risks in a given attack before chucking your sanity in favor of bolting with the herd.

Mountain House Food Dealin'

So where have I been of late?

Well, fair reader, I've actually been toiling away at some real work. This happens to be a time when some cool new crisis-preparedness products are coming online, so I've been getting in synch with some of that. I'm also marching forward in building a new shelter-business thrust that is nothing short of exciting.

But in addition, there are plenty of folks around the country starting to emerge from their winter slumbers, thinking about how to get ready for what the warmer weather will bring, and so it's a welcome obligation to be responding to their needs.

Most significantly at this moment, I am scrambling to keep up with demand for a very special and unique discount program on Mountain House food. The discounts I'm offering up are significantly greater than what are reflected in my store (see: http://stores.ebay.com/REFUGE-offered-by-Safecastle-LLC_Mountain-House-Food_W0QQcolZ2QQdirZQ2d1QQfsubZ15QQftidZ2QQtZkm) and they are yours for the asking ... simply email me for details: jcrefuge@safecastle.net

I can't emphasize enough how significant this opportunity is--to include discounts AND FREE SHIPPING. Be advised, due to circumstances beyond my control, I can only offer this monster opportunity during the month of March.

By the way, for those who are unfamiliar with Mountain House--it is the premier freeze-dried food in the world. Campers, backpackers, outdoorspeople of all stripes swear by the easy to carry and prepare pouches of some absolutely delicious food.

For emergency preparedness, the #10 cans which store for 30-40 years (no, that's not a misprint), are the best insurance a household can have against lean times.

Consider yourself notified.

Growing Culture of Confrontation

A few days ago, I read an interesting and insightful essay entitled "Culture of Fear - Dealing with Cultural Panic Attacks," by Ronald Bailey. In the essay, he talks of Sociologist Frank Furedi's identified trends fueling the West's aversion to risk. One excerpt:

First, Furedi argued that there has been a shift in moral reaction to harm. People no longer believe in natural disasters or acts of God. Today, people suspect that someone is behind a disaster—an irresponsible corporation or a cowardly bureaucrat. Indeed, accidents don't happen anymore; they have been redefined as preventable injuries.

Furedi argued that many of us now assume that every negative experience has some inner meaning. For example, when a teenager dies in a car crash, grieving parents regularly tell television reporters, "There is lesson to be learned from Johnny's death." The lesson usually is not that bad things randomly happen to good people, but that our roads don't have enough guard rails, or that we should enact laws to prevent teenagers from driving with friends and so forth.

Furedi sees this kind of thinking as a return to pre-modern days of higher superstition, where every event has a deeper meaning. In the medieval era, the hand of God or the malevolent influence of Satan explained why people suffered misfortunes. Today the malevolent hand of government or corporate America is to blame for every catastrophe.

A second factor that Furedi sees contributing to our culture of risk aversion is that the nature of harms is represented in increasingly dramatic fashion. People are no longer expected to rise above adversity or encouraged to get on with their lives after they experience a hard knock. They are instead victims who are "scarred for life" and perpetually "haunted" by their misfortunes. Even the timescale of disaster has expanded. Anything that happens now produces consequences that you can never predict. Thus you have to be very careful about what you do today and worry about what might happen decades down the road. Treating people as permanent victims and constantly speculating about possible future harms is a recipe for social and economic paralysis.

It's really an excellent essay and seems to ring true in most regards. Certainly, a strong case for a safety-centric, risk-averse culture in America can be made coming from a number of different directions. I'll leave it to Bailey and Furedi to present that argument.

Culture of Confrontation

A perspective just as true, though seemingly at odds with the development of a risk-averse society, is one in which confrontation, animosity, and even violence is increasingly celebrated and treated as the basis for popular entertainment programs, not to mention news coverage, evolving political and business ethics, dwindling acceptable standards of juvenile behavior, and on and on.

Destructive criticism, confrontation, and exploding clashes between friends and foes all around the world are becoming the norm.

Civility and decency is increasingly viewed as being archaic and symptomatic of a weak character--a vulnerability. But I just refuse to understand or accept that. Not that I shrink away from a just fight, but for God's sake--what virtues do we fancy ourselves representing or carrying forward for our children's and our nation's future?

I'm not going into any more detail on this disintegration of values, as I am sure you know exactly what I'm talking about, and you need no further reminder from me on the sorry state of our collective identity these days. The trend is definitely downward, so it's hard to be optimistic that we can turn the corner on this anytime soon.

Consider It in Your Planning

The best way I can frame this without just letting my frustration all hang out ... try to use your understanding of the new reality in your planning and preparing.

Confrontational dynamics pervading our lives at all levels require mental and spiritual strength in the healthy individual today--that much should be clear. Keep that faith and balance in knowing that there IS a better way.

Yet, looking to the future, one must consider the possibility that we are headed for some dramatic outbreak of unrest and perhaps anarchy. It's happening within and between cultures all over the world today. The potential for it here in America seems to be simmering just below the surface, waiting to erupt unbidden if our enemies don't succeed in importing their own brand of societal disruption first.

What that means is you need to personally have some means of dealing with an increasingly violent and malevolent environment. If chaos breaks out for whatever reason in your neck of the woods, what will you do? Will you try to escape? Will you hunker down? Are you adequately armed to provide your household with some reasonable defense and/or deterrent from assault?

Think supplies and defensive strategies. Can you dig in and hold out for a length of time until the cavalry arrives? Do you have food, water, ammunition? Medications, first aid, trustworthy community bonds and support? How about such things as sandbags, body armor, and an adequately fortified shelter structure?

This IS the stuff of extremist dreams and nightmares for most others. But pay attention ... reality itself might be taking an extreme, sharp turn in the near future.

Interesting Essay - "The Coming of Deindustrial Society: A Practical Response"

Personally, the whole Peak Oil debate is on the periphery of my radar screen. I certainly accept that future energy demands vs. available resources is an issue of concern ... major concern, as time goes on. But I do cling to the notion that mankind and society will adapt to our changing environs and in fact we will continue to innovate brilliant solutions.

That is not to say, a lot of people won't feel pain along the way. After all, that IS the proven way of the human condition throughout history. Whether it is progress or regress, there is always a price paid by someone.

I came across a very interesting essay by John Michael Greer that is worthy of your time:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/whatToDo/DeindustrialAge.htm

Some excerpts (bear in mind the author has some very strong views on the matter):

... it may be appealing to fantasize about vast government programs bailing us out of the present predicament, such fantasies are not a practical way of responding to the situation. We have to start with the recognition that the most likely outcome of the current situation is collapse: to borrow the Club of Rome's formulation, sustained, simultaneous, uncontrolled and irreversible declines in population, industrial production, and capital stock.

... Now as soon as this is said, most people who don't reject it out of hand slip off at once into apocalyptic ideas of one sort or another. These should be rejected; history is a better guide. Civilizations collapse. As Joseph Tainter pointed out in his useful book The Collapse of Complex Societies, it's one of the most predictable things about them. Ours is not that different from hundreds of previous civilizations that overshot their natural resource base and crashed to ruin. What we face is a natural process, and like most natural processes, much of it can be predicted by comparison with past situations.
But fantasy is often more palatable than reality, and most of the apocalyptic notions in circulation these days are sheer fantasy.

... the Hollywood notion of an overnight collapse is just as much of a fantasy; it makes for great screenplays but has nothing to do with the realities of how civilizations fall. The disintegration of a complex society takes decades, not days. Since fossil fuel production will decline gradually, not simply come to a screeching halt, the likely course of things is gradual descent rather than freefall. Civilizations go under in a rolling collapse punctuated by localized disasters, taking anything from one to four centuries to complete the process. It's not a steady decline, either; between sudden crises come intervals of relative stability, even moderate improvement; different regions decline at different paces; existing social, economic and political structures are replaced, not with complete chaos, but with transitional structures that may develop pretty fair institutional strength themselves.
Does this model apply to the current situation? Almost certainly. As oil and natural gas run short, economies will come unglued and political systems disintegrate under the strain. But there's still oil to be had - the Hubbert Curve is a bell-shaped curve, after all. The world in 2020 may still be producing about as much oil as it was producing in 1980. It's just that with other fossil fuels gone or badly depleted, nearly twice as many people in the world, and the global economy in shreds, the gap between production and demand will be vast. The result will be poverty, spiralling shortages, rising death rates, plummeting birth rates, and epidemic violence and warfare. Not a pretty picture - but it's not an instant reversion to the Stone Age either.
Equally imaginary is the notion that the best strategy for would-be survivors is to hole up in some isolated rural area with enough firepower to stock a Panzer division, and wait things out. I can think of no better proof that people nowadays pay no attention to history. One of the more common phenomena of collapse is the breakdown of public order in rural areas, and the rise of a brigand culture preying on rural communities and travelers. Isolated survivalist enclaves with stockpiles of food and ammunition would be a tempting prize and could count on being targeted.
Equally inaccurate is the notion that stockpiling precious metals will somehow make the stockpilers exempt from the consequences of industrial collapse. This strategy has been tried over and over again in recorded history, and it doesn't work. Every few years, for example, archeologists in Britain dig up another cache of gold and silver hidden away by some wealthy landowner in Roman Britain as the empire fell apart. They're usually close to the ruins of the owner's rural villa, which shows the signs of being looted and burned to the ground by the Saxons. As a working rule, if your value consists of what you've stockpiled, there will be an unlimited number of other people interested in removing you from the stockpile and enjoying it themselves. However many you kill, there will always be more - and eventually the ammo will run out.

... So what does work? The key to making sense of constructive action in a situation of impending industrial collapse is to look at the community, rather than the individual or society as a whole, as the basic unit. We know from history that local communities can continue to flourish while empires fall around them. There are, however, three things a community needs to do that, and all three of them are in short supply these days.
First, a community needs some degree of local organization. Our present culture here in America has discarded most of the local organizations it once had, in favor of a mass society where individuals deal directly with huge government and corporate institutions. This has to be reversed. The recent move to reinvigorate civil society is a step in the right direction. Joining or creating a local community group, and helping to revive local civil society, will help provide your community with voluntary networks of cooperation and mutual aid in difficult times.

... The second thing a community needs in the twilight of industrial society is a core of people who know how to do without fossil fuel inputs. An astonishing number of people, especially in the educated middle class, have no practical skills whatsoever when it comes to growing and preparing food, making clothing, and providing other basic necessities. An equally astonishing number are unable to go any distance at all by any means that doesn't involve burning fossil fuels - and almost no one in the developed world can light a fire without matches or a lighter from some distant factory. Survival skills such as organic gardening, low-tech medicine, basic hand crafts, and the like need to be learned and practiced now, while there's time to do so. Similarly, those people who cut their fossil fuel consumption drastically now - for example, by getting rid of their cars and using public transit or bicycles for commuting - will be better prepared for the inevitable shortages.

... Those people who can use their own hands and minds to make tools, grow food, brew beer, treat illnesses, generate modest amounts of electricity from sun and wind, and the like, will have a survival advantage over those who can't. In a violent age, practical knowledge is a life insurance policy; if you're more useful alive than dead, you're likely to stay that way. The pirate enclaves of the seventeenth-century Carribbean were among the most lawless societies in history, but physicians, navigators, shipwrights, and other skilled craftsmen were safe from the pervasive violence, since it was in everyone's best interests to keep them alive.

... The third thing a community needs is access to basic human requirements, and above all food. Very large cities are going to become difficult places to be in the course of the approaching collapse, precisely because there isn't enough farmland within easy transport range to feed the people now living there. On the other hand, most American cities of half a million or less are fairly close to agricultural land that could, in a pinch, be used to grow food intensively and feed the somewhat reduced population that's likely to be left after the first stages of the collapse. What's needed is the framework of a production and distribution system around which this can take shape.
The good news is that this framework already exists; it's called the farmers market movement. The last two decades have seen an astonishing growth in farmers markets across the country - the latest figures I've seen, and they're some years out of date, indicate that farmers markets are a $16 billion a year industry, with most of that money going to small local farmers. I personally know organic farmers who are able to stay in business, and support their families on quite small acreages, because they work the farmers markets. Every dollar spent on locally grown produce from a farmers market, instead of supermarket fare shipped halfway around the world, is thus an investment in local sustainability and survival.
There are a good many other, similar steps that can be taken. Anything that provides functional alternatives to energy-wasting lifestyles lays foundations for the transitional societies of the late 21st century, and ultimately for the sustainable successor cultures that will begin to emerge in North America in the 22nd and 23rd centuries. The important point, it seems to me, is to do something constructive now, rather than presenting plans to the government in the perfect knowledge that they will be ignored until it's far too late to do anything.

Ideology of Intolerance and Mass Destruction

At some point soon, Western leaders will have to drop the foolish insistence that the war we are engaged in is an ethereal long-term war on "terror." It is completely plain to see that, instead, our fate is to either endure or fall in a blunt-force clash of civilizations.

The aggressor in this mushrooming reality is an archaic religious ideology, Islam, founded in the 7th century by the prophet Muhammad. Attitudes instilled in its one billion followers demand their submission to the will of Allah. Religion and social or political realms are inseparable, and theological leaders hold tremendous power in their own proclamations, interpretations, and exhortations.

There are multiple Islamic theologies, but today, the most intolerant and violent forms are multiplying unchallenged globally, leading millions of Muslims headlong into direct confrontation with modern cultures of the "infidels."

Ideologies of Aggression

Iran's nuclear ambitions and their unabashed Islamic-justified desire to wipe Israel from the map are front and center in the world's consciousness today. So are the recurring and spreading riots in Europe and elsewhere arising out of Muslims being whipped into a frenzy over western cartoons that depict their holy prophet.

This of course does not even consider the longer-term realities of suicide terrorism and criminal aggression on innocent civilians throughout the world in the name of Allah and in opposition to America, Israel, and anything not endorsed in Islamic tradition.

The threat to our way of life from the passionate opposition and anger nourished in the Muslim world is unprecedented today and is fast reaching explosive levels. The Middle East, and Europe are the front lines today, but America, Indonesia, and Asia are also in the middle of the fight, and there is no neutral ground in this ideological war.

Lines drawn between combatants are not as much along international boundaries as they are along and among intermingled populations everywhere. To-date, few opposing cultures have been able to match the passion and fire of the most radical Muslim warriors. The West has long ago turned in its own motivating faith and moral value sets for soft, self-centered individualistic pursuits that are not only a focus of Islam's wrath, but also our own undoing in being able to mount a defense equal in reason and strength.

By denying the nature of our true enemy in this struggle and confronting our weaknesses in truthfulness, we will not have a chance of holding the line against the enemy.

How to Prepare

On a personal level, the question here is, what should we do?

If you are looking to prepare your family and household for a clash of civilizations, potential dangers that come to mind are almost too overwhelming to consider. But like with any other threat, taking it a piece at a time is probably the way to go. A very brief summary follows ...

First, this type of threat is as much about personal belief and philosophy as about physical survival. Start there by deciding where your most basic loyalties lie. Do you believe in God? Do you pray for guidance in your day to day activities? Do you feel a bond with others in your community and nation? Are you and your family your first and only priority? The questions would be many and only you can create the necessary definition for your philosophical foundation. I suggest devoting time to this now and then building on your answers going forward.

With that understanding established, you might consider that a full-blown lifestyle-threatening clash of civilizations will have obvious impact on the lives of your family. Hardships and challenges may take the form of economic downturns, supply shortages, emotional difficulty and confusion, community strife, and possibly local violence that could take a toll right where you live.

Assuming you are spiritually grounded in your faith, I might suggest that your next important steps to take would be to ensure that your household security against reasonably expected aggression is in place. That can mean a lot of different things, such as hardened shelters, air filtration, employment of your legal right to arm yourself and provide for your own self-defense, home security systems, watchdogs, and on and on. What we are talking about in this regard is as much about peace of mind as anything else.

Last, as with most any other threat we try to prepare for, we want to have in place the ability to provide for the needs of our family for at least a short-term period without having to leave our home. For this threat, stocking up on food, water, medical needs, and supplies for a longer period of time would seem to be prudent--perhaps at least a month's worth, and as much as a year or more. And don't forget to prepare to engage in an economy potentially lacking in the ability to process credit cards or checks for a time in the event basic infrastructure is compromised.

No Limits

Ideologies today know no geographic boundaries. And some ideologies know no limits or fears in terms of their attempts to achieve their goals.

Now is the time to come to grips with that and to start establishing your own personal resolve to do what may become necessary in a world going mad.

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