Thursday, April 19, 2007

Open Source Intelligence

Got $30,000 for a year's worth of the world's best intelligence?

If not, at least read this column from Arnaud de Borgrave--"Open Source Intelligence." Oxford Analytica is the high-powered group for which world leaders have such a high regard.

According to de Borchgrave:

OA's latest contribution is "The Global Stress Points Matrix," a list of 20 potential points and where they rank from "negligible danger" of stress to "Very High" and "Extreme."

Overlapping "High," "Very High," and "Extreme" stress points are:

1. United States/Iran: U.S. strike on Iran
2. United States: Deep Recession
3. China/Taiwan: Armed Hostilities

Next in descending order of stress are:

4. International: Avian flu pandemic
5. Pakistan: State collapse
6. International: Chemical/biological attack
7. International: Return to protectionism
8. International: Terrorist dirty bomb
9. International: Oil price shock
10. Iraq: Collapse of state institutions
11. India/Pakistan: Armed hostilities
12. Russia: Rise of assertive nationalism
13. Latin America: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector
14. Lebanon: Civil war
15. Argentina: New sovereign default
16. North Korea: Military conflict
17. Nigeria: Large-scale disorder in the Delta
18. Horn of Africa: Regional conflagration
19. Central Asia: Risk of major disorder
20. Balkans: Return to serious disruption



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