Remember Me

Love and kudos to all who are putting it on the line for the rest of us!

Interest-Free Financing for Mountain House Emergency Food

For Everyone--Buyers Club Member or Not!

This Offer is for Our Two Mountain House Volume Packages Listed in Our eBay Store, Only till October 30

Mountain House cans are once again available after several months of the factory working through towering backlogs of orders.

We also notified you that their new pricing policy requires us to NOT apply member discounts to our Mountain House listings. However, we do continue to ship those orders free anywhere in the continental U.S.

Financing! No Payments Till 2009!

We are working on ways to further maximize the value we can offer you with your Safecastle Mountain House purchases. We expect to be making other great offers in the future.

But right now, we can extend this offer to everyone (U.S. residents)--NO PAYMENTS, NO INTEREST UNTIL 2009, when you make a Mountain House package purchase on our eBay site.

See:
48 Mountain House #10-cans
210 Mountain House #10-cans

This offer requires applying for the eBay MasterCard and is good for your first eBay purchase over $50 using that card. (See offer details below.) To apply for the card, click on the eBay MasterCard link on the qualifying listing (under the "Buy It Now" button) or click here.

Offer details:
Thinking about applying for an eBay MasterCard? Great! Here's how the application process works...When you apply, you will first be considered for an eBay MasterCard, which can be used anywhere MasterCard is accepted. If you don't qualify for an eBay MasterCard, you will then be considered for a PayPal Buyer Credit account, which can be used on-eBay and anywhere PayPal is accepted.If you are approved for an eBay MasterCard between September 3, 2008 - October 30, 2008, and spend $50 or more on eBay, in a single transaction, you won"t need to make any monthly payments or pay any interest for 4 months if the promotional balance is paid in full within 4 months. This offer only applies to your first, single purchase made on-eBay over $50 (the total transaction amount will receive the financing promotion) made between September 3, 2008 - October 30, 2008, using your new eBay MasterCard as the source of funds through your PayPal account. All purchases are subject to credit approval.Under this promotion, no monthly payments are required on the promotional purchase and no interest will be assessed on the promotional purchase as long as: (1) You pay the promotional purchase amount in full by the end of the promotional period, (2) you pay, when due, the minimum monthly payments on any other balances on your account, and (3) you pay any optional Debt Cancellation charges related to the promotional transaction in full by the end of the promotional period. If you fail to satisfy these conditions, all promotional terms may be terminated and interest may be assessed on the promotional balance amount from the date of purchase. This offer does not apply to non-eBay purchases. Standard account terms apply to non-promotional purchases and, after the promotion expiries, to your promotional purchase. This offer will be terminated and the Delinquency Rate may apply if you fail to make a minimum payment when due, you exceed your credit limit or cash advance limit, or you make a payment to us that is not honored by your bank. As of July 1, 2008, variable APRs are 12.24%, 15.24%, 18.24% and 21.24%. Variable delinquency APR is 29.24%. Minimum finance charge is $1.00 USD. See your credit card agreement for standard terms.If you qualify and are approved for a PayPal Buyer Credit Account between September 3, 2008 -- October 30, 2008, and spend more than $50 on-eBay, in a single transaction, you are also eligible to make no payments for up to 4 months and will pay no interest if paid in full within 4 months. This offer only applies to your first, single purchase made on-eBay, between September 3, 2008 - October 30, 2008, using your PayPal Buyer Credit Account as the source of funds through your PayPal account. All purchases are subject to credit approval.Under this promotion, no monthly payments are required on the promotional purchase and no interest will be assessed on the promotional purchase as long as: (1) You pay the promotional purchase amount in full by the end of the promotional period, (2) you pay, when due, the minimum monthly payments on any other balances on your account, and (3) you pay any optional Debt Cancellation charges related to the promotional transaction in full by the end of the promotional period. If you fail to satisfy these conditions, all promotional terms may be terminated and interest may be assessed on the promotional balance amount from the date of purchase. This offer does not apply to non-eBay purchases. Standard account terms apply to non-promotional Purchases and, after the promotion expires, to your promotional purchase. This offer will be terminated and the Delinquency Rate may apply if any required minimum payment is not made when due two times in any six consecutive billing periods. Once the delinquency rate is in effect, standard account terms will apply if the minimum payment is made when due for six consecutive billing periods. As of July 1, 2008, variable APR is 20.80%. Variable delinquency APR is 24.75%. Minimum finance charge is $1.00 USD. See your credit card agreement for standard terms.Financing is only available to U.S. residents over 18 years of age. Subject to credit approval by GE Money Bank.This card is issued by GE Money Bank pursuant to a license by MasterCard International Incorporated.

BTW, we've still got a few hardcover copies left of "

World Made By Hand" by James Kunstler that we'll send to any buyer of these packages, while supplies last (one copy per customer).

Stay safe!

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastle.net

$6M Cave Home Virtual Tour!

End of the world got you down? Looking for a practical haven in which to invest your hard-earned riches as the financial world comes crashing down all around?

Check out this 380-acre, six-million-dollar Arkansas property, including a home built into a warren of caves.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Never Forget 9/11/2001

Never retreat. Never rest.

After Months of a Locked Pipeline, Mountain House Cans are Available and Shipping!

It's been several months since Mountain House stopped taking new orders from dealers on their canned foods. They were being socked in with orders from all over the country at a pace five times their previous high.

Now, we can announce that Safecastle has been given permission to start taking orders again, effective immediately!

Note that Mountain House food is now being produced at record levels, and the company has maximized production capabilities. They have worked through their backlog and are in the process of fast building a stockpile for ongoing demand.

Get It Now

As we've learned over the last several years, we cannot take for granted the availability of food of any kind in our just-in-time system. In particular, in an era of rising food prices, long-term storage food is becoming more recognized as not only a hedge against crisis, but an investment that pays off in financial terms as well.

Thus, we expect the demand for Mountain House food to remain very strong. Of course, if and when another major disaster happens, many more folks will again come to realize the need for this kind of critical disaster deterrent.

Prices

For something like seven years, Mountain House prices went unchanged earlier in this decade. But then, the world turned. Now supplier, production, and transportation costs are escalating steadily. Mountain House has had to try to keep up and now has a policy of updating prices twice a year. (Hint--prices are not adjusting downward.)

So, while the good news is that the food is available again at today's still-reasonable prices ... that means they are definitely not listed at yesterday's prices.

Most significantly for the Safecastle Royal Buyers Club--Oregon Freeze Dry, the producer of Mountain House food, has mandated dealer participation in a strict new pricing agreement. For us, that means we are not permitted to permanently offer discounts on Mountain House canned foods (pouches remain discounted). We WILL be allowed to offer members up to three short-duration sales in the course of a year, and we will certainly do that.

But be advised that from here on out, there can be no standard member discount on the cans. That fact is posted prominently on each of our MH can listings.

The Premier Prep Food in the World

Mountain House freeze dried food , is universally recognized as the top emergency preparedness and outdoor/adventure food in the world. Safecastle is proud to have been re-confirmed as a Mountain House dealer, and we will work with Oregon Freeze Dry to provide our members and customers full satisfaction on every transaction.

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Hurricane Preparedness

Thank God that Hurricane Gustav was not more destructive than it was, and that Gulf Coast residents took seriously the warnings and evacuation orders. Lessons learned all around, obviously, from Katrina a few years ago.

Now, it appears that a few more big storms are in the clip ready to engage the southeastern U.S. and/or locales in the Carribean and Atlantic. Forecasters are saying this looks to be a very active hurricane season, perhaps right into December.

If you're near the coast, stay aware.

It also wouldn't hurt to review NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness pages.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Gustav to be 4th Recorded Cat-5 Hurricane to Hit U.S.?

Hurricane Gustav has the potential to be only the fourth hurricane to ever come ashore the U.S. as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Already today it is at the top end of the Category 4 parameters as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to become Category 5 shortly. Whether it remains that strong when it reaches landfall is yet unknown, as well as where exactly it will hit between Texas and Florida.

Cat 5 hurricanes wield winds greater than 155 mph and storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.

Damage to be expected includes: Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Katrina (pdf), a category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico, was still responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage when it struck the U.S. Gulf Coast as a category 3. It is by far the costliest hurricane to ever strike the United States. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.

Gulf coast populations are right to be evacuating now, with landfall expected to take place within 36 hours.

Experience has repeatedly shown that evacuation of coastal areas during serious hurricane threats is the prudent advice to follow. Do not wait till it is too late and do not consider yourself above the laws of physics or human endurance.

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Free Copies of Kunstler's "World Made By Hand"!

I recently finished reading James Kunstler's 2008 best selling novel, "World Made By Hand." The book is a very well-written story of life after technology ... post global catastrophe.

I savored it so much, I decided to buy the book in bulk quantities and give them away.

In recognition of National Preparedness Month, the books are going to folks who buy a new lifetime Safecastle Royal Buyers Club membership for $19. The hardcover books are valued at $24, so DING-DING-DING--it's a no-brainer.

Of course, the membership gets you at least 20% off everything we sell and free shipping to the lower 48 all the time! Food, gear, everything. My wife hates to hear it by now, but I still like the sound of it--"Safecastle has the best prices on crisis devices!"

And oh yes--those who are already members get the book for free with any new purchase of at least $170 (after the member discounts are applied).

There's no coupon code--the books automatically get sent with every qualifying purchase (limit of one book per customer).

If you've already read the book, then you know that they make excellent holiday gifts--for the motivated prepper on your list, and even for those who might need their eyes opened a little wider, if you know what I mean. Everyone can enjoy this excellent book.

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Russia Now Warning West of "Declaration of War"

What days these are, in which we toil ...

Military help for Georgia is a 'declaration of war', says Moscow in extraordinary warning to the West
Last updated at 16:47pm on 27.08.08

Moscow has issued an extraordinary warning to the West that military assistance to Georgia for use against South Ossetia or Abkhazia would be viewed as a "declaration of war" by Russia.

The extreme rhetoric from the Kremlin's envoy to NATO came as President Dmitry Medvedev stressed he will make a military response to US missile defence installations in eastern Europe, sending new shudders across countries whose people were once blighted by the Iron Curtain.

And Moscow also emphasised it was closely monitoring what it claims is a build-up of NATO firepower in the Black Sea.

[snip]

Click to read entire article.

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

September is National Preparedness Month

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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Who Does Hillary Believe is Best Qualified?

Why Is It That "Survivalists" Are So Easy To Make Fun Of?

Crisis preparedness is about life and death.

It's about being equipped to get through the biggest challenges a person can be called upon to fight through.

Best case, preparedness delivers a personal sense of well-being. That comfort arises out of a readiness to deal with whatever life throws at you.

Really, there's nothing funny about preparedness.


But it's so easy to laugh at us

Two words--"Burt Gummer." (Or is that one name?)

Actor Michael Gross created what is probably THE classic stereotype survivalist in the 1990 "Tremors" movie (and capitalized upon in three follow-up portrayals in Tremors II, III, and IV, not to mention a TV series of the same name). Funny movies ... and of course most of us just plain love the Gummer character--especially in the first film in the series.

1. Why was the Gummer character a hit?
2. Why do "normal" folks chuckle and roll their eyes when the term "survivalist" comes up?

Two different questions, one answer: Because there are really people among us who live for disaster.

Do I intend to beef again about balance in one's life? I don't think so. Suffice it to say, being ready for life is not the point of life.

What I do want to mention here is that, just as it is easy to go overboard on the whole prepping lifestyle, it is also easy to get overly focused on one disaster scenario that you prepare for.

Two up-close and personal scenarios that get some of "us" really juiced up--

a. All-out nuclear war
b. Total societal breakdown (brought on by say, economic collapse, pandemic, peak oil, or civil war, etc.)

Pick your poison.

Of course, this is the stuff of situation comedies. Overspecialization can never be good. Train the telescope on one tree and the rest of the forest may burn down around you.

Those who are seriously into preparedness ... in other words, those who understand that major crises come in all shapes and forms ... do NOT zero in on all-out nuclear war as being THE threat that drives them.

Why? Numbers. More specifically--odds.

Disaster happens all the time. Just about every month, year in and year out, large numbers of people somewhere in the world are victimized by disaster and a subsequent inability to take even small steps toward recovery.

But how often does thermo-nuclear war erupt? Or how often do Western nations collapse?

Sure--the possibility for either one or both catastrophes exists, but true crisis preparedness is a far sight more comprehensive than embracing the caricature role of Burt Gummer.

Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

MSN's Markman: Worldwide Wipeout this Fall

Put this in your pipe and smoke it:

Warning: Worldwide Wipeout Ahead

Think US stocks are on a life raft? Look around the globe, where seas are much rougher. This is serious, folks. Brace for a brutal riptide of more economic upheaval.

By Jon Markman, August 22

It barely seems possible that anyone is more pessimistic about corporate earnings prospects than American shareholders right now, with the U.S. stock market down almost 15% for the year and the banking system coming unglued before our eyes.

Yet if you take a moment to look around the world, you may be surprised to learn that U.S. stocks are the picture of health compared with their counterparts worldwide. And measured against the gloom in bonds, U.S. stocks are like a sunny day in spring.

Time to gloat? Not on your life. For if there's one thing we know about global markets these days, it's that they seldom diverge for long. So while it might be tempting to look with pity at investors across the seas and in other asset classes, it's more likely that U.S. equities will plunge than that foreign equities will float higher toward our perch.

[snip]


Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

EMP TEOTWAWKI?

All my sources indicate the EMP threat, in practical terms, is NOT a viable, widespread terror risk to modern civilization. But in theory, from a well-armed enemy such as Russia?--OK, very scary. Here's a WSJ opinion piece ...

The EMP Threat
August 9, 2008; Page A10

Imagine you're a terrorist with a single nuclear weapon. You could wipe out the U.S. city of your choice, or you could decide to destroy the infrastructure of the entire U.S. economy and leave millions of Americans to die of starvation or want of medical care.

The latter scenario is the one envisioned by a long-running commission to assess the threat from electromagnetic pulse, or EMP. The subject of its latest, and little discussed, report to Congress is the effect an EMP attack could have on civilian infrastructure. If you're prone to nightmares, don't read it before bedtime.

An EMP attack occurs when a nuclear bomb explodes high in the Earth's atmosphere. The electromagnetic pulse generated by the blast destroys all the electronics in its line of sight. For a bomb detonated over the Midwest, that includes most of the continental U.S. Few, if any, people die in the blast. It's what comes next that has the potential to be catastrophic. Since an EMP surge wipes out electronics, virtually every aspect of modern American life would come to a standstill.

The commission's list of horribles is 181 pages long. The chapter on food, for instance, catalogs the disruptions up and down the production chain as food spoils or has no way to get to market. Many families have food supplies of several days or more. But after that, and without refrigeration, what? The U.S. also has 75,000 dams and reservoirs, 168,000 drinking water-treatment facilities, and 19,000 wastewater treatment centers -- all with pumps, valves and filters run by electricity.

Getting everything up and running again is not merely a matter of flipping a switch, and the commission estimates that many systems could be out of service for months or a year or more -- far longer than emergency stockpiles or batteries could cover. The large transformers used in electrical transmission are no longer built in the U.S. and delivery time is typically three years. "Lack of high voltage equipment manufacturing capacity represents a glaring weakness in our survival and recovery," the commission notes.

Many industries rely on automated control systems maintained by small work forces. In emergencies -- say, during a blackout -- companies often have arrangements in place to borrow workers from outside the affected area to augment the locals and help with manual repairs. After an EMP attack, those workers would be busy in their home regions -- or foraging for food and water for their families.

The commission offers extensive recommendations for how industry and government can protect against the effects of an EMP attack and ensure a quicker recovery. They include "hardening" more equipment to withstand an electromagnetic pulse; making sure replacement equipment is on hand; training recovery personnel; increasing federal food stockpiles; and many others.

If not, our vulnerability "can both invite and reward attack," the commission's chairman, William Graham, told Congress last month. Iran's military writings "explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States," he said. James Shinn, an assistant secretary of defense, has said that China is developing EMP weapons. The commission calls an EMP attack "one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences." The threat is real. It's past time to address it.


Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Was the Bear Hibernating? (Or Was it Very Busy Deep Underground?)

Have to interrupt a little vacation at the lake to summarize for friends my current thoughts on the Russian re-emergence ...

Today, this is the latest news: Russia Says Response to U.S. Missile Shield Deal With Poland Will Go Beyond Diplomacy

Read the article. In a nutshell, a Russian general last week threatened a nuclear strike on Poland if they accepted US missile defense on their sovereign territory. Today the deal was signed by the USA and Poland. The Russian Foreign Ministry said their response would "go beyond diplomacy."

My View

This is the resumption of the Cold War after a brief intermission. It is not time to panic.

Some folks now MAY have to reassess their analyses of the whole Perestroika-Glasnost period and the years since. I think in fact that is a big key right now ... to look back and get a handle on what has been really going on over there for the past 20 years.

Recent developments boil down to either ...

1. The Russo westernization experiment failed and this is an about-face by Russia, with an aim at re-establishing some semblance of the old glory days (but which is not at all likely to go beyond previously established Cold War etiquette).

2. Or, this is the true beginning of "The Final Phase" in a long-planned and executed strategy aimed at maximizing the Russians' chances at coming out on top in a carefully aranged full-scale war against the West.

I was there in front-row seats for Cold War I as an all-source NSA analyst in the '70s. FWIW, I never became a Glasnost convert and so this is not a big surprise. I know there were many others in the intell community who did not buy the Cold War victory spiels either. Unfortunately, I think most of them are now off the active payroll. To my way of thinking, that cannot be a good thing today.

Cold War redux is imminent. What are the odds of it going hot? I wouldn't bet much on either outcome at the moment, but you can take solace in the fact that the Russian way is to carry out the damnedest, scariest, most bellicose bluffs imaginable. They have always played the game aggressively, short of actually crossing the line of no return.


Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Russia-Georgia: Why You Should Care

Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

Nightline's August 12 Piece, "The Survivalists"

Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com

The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

With permission from Stratfor (www.stratfor.com).

August 12, 2008

by George Friedman

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.

Let’s begin simply by reviewing the last few days.

On the night of Thursday, Aug. 7, forces of the Republic of Georgia drove across the border of South Ossetia, a secessionist region of Georgia that has functioned as an independent entity since the fall of the Soviet Union. The forces drove on to the capital, Tskhinvali, which is close to the border. Georgian forces got bogged down while trying to take the city. In spite of heavy fighting, they never fully secured the city, nor the rest of South Ossetia.

On the morning of Aug. 8, Russian forces entered South Ossetia, using armored and motorized infantry forces along with air power. South Ossetia was informally aligned with Russia, and Russia acted to prevent the region’s absorption by Georgia. Given the speed with which the Russians responded — within hours of the Georgian attack — the Russians were expecting the Georgian attack and were themselves at their jumping-off points. The counterattack was carefully planned and competently executed, and over the next 48 hours, the Russians succeeded in defeating the main Georgian force and forcing a retreat. By Sunday, Aug. 10, the Russians had consolidated their position in South Ossetia.

On Monday, the Russians extended their offensive into Georgia proper, attacking on two axes. One was south from South Ossetia to the Georgian city of Gori. The other drive was from Abkhazia, another secessionist region of Georgia aligned with the Russians. This drive was designed to cut the road between the Georgian capital of Tbilisi and its ports. By this point, the Russians had bombed the military airfields at Marneuli and Vaziani and appeared to have disabled radars at the international airport in Tbilisi. These moves brought Russian forces to within 40 miles of the Georgian capital, while making outside reinforcement and resupply of Georgian forces extremely difficult should anyone wish to undertake it.

The Mystery Behind the Georgian Invasion

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.

The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that t he Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?

It is very difficult to imagine that the Georgians launched their attack against U.S. wishes. The Georgians rely on the United States, and they were in no position to defy it. This leaves two possibilities. The first is a massive breakdown in intelligence, in which the United States either was unaware of the existence of Russian forces, or knew of the Russian forces but — along with the Georgians — miscalculated Russia’s intentions. The United States, along with other countries, has viewed Russia through the prism of the 1990s, when the Russian military was in shambles and the Russian government was paralyzed. The United States has not seen Russia make a decisive military move beyond its borders since the Afghan war of the 1970s-1980s. The Russians had systematically avoided such moves for years. The United States had assumed that the Russians would not risk the consequences of an invasion.

If this was the case, then it points to the central reality of this situation: The Russians had changed dramatically, along with the balance of power in the region. They welcomed the opportunity to drive home the new reality, which was that they could invade Georgia and the United States and Europe could not respond. As for risk, they did not view the invasion as risky. Militarily, there was no counter. Economically, Russia is an energy exporter doing quite well — indeed, the Europeans need Russian energy even more than the Russians need to sell it to them. Politically, as we shall see, the Americans needed the Russians more than the Russians needed the Americans. Moscow’s calculus was that this was the moment to strike. The Russians had been building up to it for months, as we have discussed, and they struck.

The Western Encirclement of Russia

To understand Russian thinking, we need to look at two events. The first is the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. From the U.S. and European point of view, the Orange Revolution represented a triumph of democracy and Western influence. From the Russian point of view, as Moscow made clear, the Orange Revolution was a CIA-funded intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, designed to draw Ukraine into NATO and add to the encirclement of Russia. U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton had promised the Russians that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Union empire.

That promise had already been broken in 1998 by NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — and again in the 2004 expansion, which absorbed not only the rest of the former Soviet satellites in what is now Central Europe, but also the three Baltic states, which had been components of the Soviet Union.

The Russians had tolerated all that, but the discussion of including Ukraine in NATO represented a fundamental threat to Russia’s national security. It would have rendered Russia indefensible and threatened to destabilize the Russian Federation itself. When the United States went so far as to suggest that Georgia be included as well, bringing NATO deeper into the Caucasus, the Russian conclusion — publicly stated — was that the United States in particular intended to encircle and break Russia.

The second and lesser event was the decision by Europe and the United States to back Kosovo’s separation from Serbia. The Russians were friendly with Serbia, but the deeper issue for Russia was this: The principle of Europe since World War II was that, to prevent conflict, national borders would not be changed. If that principle were violated in Kosovo, other border shifts — including demands by various regions for independence from Russia — might follow. The Russians publicly and privately asked that Kosovo not be given formal independence, but instead continue its informal autonomy, which was the same thing in practical terms. Russia’s requests were ignored.

From the Ukrainian experience, the Russians became convinced that the United States was engaged in a plan of strategic encirclement and strangulation of Russia. From the Kosovo experience, they concluded that the United States and Europe were not prepared to consider Russian wishes even in fairly minor affairs. That was the breaking point. If Russian desires could not be accommodated even in a minor matter like this, then clearly Russia and the West were in conflict. For the Russians, as we said, the question was how to respond. Having declined to respond in Kosovo, the Russians decided to respond where they had all the cards: in South Ossetia.

Moscow had two motives, the lesser of which was as a tit-for-tat over Kosovo. If Kosovo could be declared independent under Western sponsorship, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions of Georgia, could be declared independent under Russian sponsorship. Any objections from the United States and Europe would simply confirm their hypocrisy. This was important for internal Russian political reasons, but the second motive was far more important.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. This didn’t mean that he wanted to retain the Soviet state; rather, it meant that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had created a situation in which Russian national security was threatened by Western interests. As an example, consider that during the Cold War, St. Petersburg was about 1,200 miles away from a NATO country. Today it is about 60 miles away from Estonia, a NATO member. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had left Russia surrounded by a group of countries hostile to Russian interests in various degrees and heavily influenced by the United States, Europe and, in some cases, China.

Resurrecting the Russian Sphere

Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things. First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region. Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.

The Russians knew the United States would denounce their attack. This actually plays into Russian hands. The more vocal senior leaders are, the greater the contrast with their inaction, and the Russians wanted to drive home the idea that American guarantees are empty talk.
The Russians also know something else that is of vital importance: For the United States, the Middle East is far more important than the Caucasus, and Iran is particularly important. The United States wants the Russians to participate in sanctions against Iran. Even more importantly, they do not want the Russians to sell weapons to Iran, particularly the highly effective S-300 air defense system. Georgia is a marginal issue to the United States; Iran is a central issue. The Russians are in a position to pose serious problems for the United States not only in Iran, but also with weapons sales to other countries, like Syria.

Therefore, the United States has a problem — it either must reorient its strategy away from the Middle East and toward the Caucasus, or it has to seriously limit its response to Georgia to avoid a Russian counter in Iran. Even if the United States had an appetite for another war in Georgia at this time, it would have to calculate the Russian response in Iran — and possibly in Afghanistan (even though Moscow’s interests there are currently aligned with those of Washington).

In other words, the Russians have backed the Americans into a corner. The Europeans, who for the most part lack expeditionary militaries and are dependent upon Russian energy exports, have even fewer options. If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn’t all too shabby at the moment. It has also compelled every state on the Russian periphery to re-evaluate its position relative to Moscow. As for Georgia, the Russians appear ready to demand the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili. Militarily, that is their option. That is all they wanted to demonstrate, and they have demonstrated it.

The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status. This is not something that just happened — it has been unfolding ever since Putin took power, and with growing intensity in the past five years. Part of it has to do with the increase of Russian power, but a great deal of it has to do with the fact that the Middle Eastern wars have left the United States off-balance and short on resources. As we have written, this conflict created a window of opportunity. The Russian goal is to use that window to assert a new reality throughout the region while the Americans are tied down elsewhere and dependent on the Russians. The war was far from a surprise; it has been building for months. But the geopolitical foundations of the war have been building since 1992. Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

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Russian Tanks Enter S Ossetia

The Bear Attacks

Today, Russian forces have militarily engaged Georgia within the borders of the latter. There is no other more suitable to comment on the situation today than JR Nyquist.

Russia Invades Georgia
by J. R. Nyquist
Weekly Column Published: 08.08.2008

As these words are written, Russian mechanized troops are moving against the Republic of Georgia. The Georgian leadership has been taken by surprise. They did not think the Russians would go this far. So the question has to be asked: Why is Russia invading Georgia now? What would a war between Georgia and Russia accomplish?

Some observers have stated that Russia wouldn’t dare invade Georgia. Such an invasion would bog them down in an endless fight against Georgian guerrillas. From the Kremlin standpoint this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad outcome. First, the suppression of ragtag forces is always possible if the invader is persistent and determined. In Chechnya the Kremlin’s determination has been unwavering and brutal for almost nine years. Nobody thinks Russia has lost the war in Chechnya.

During World War II one of Hitler’s generals fretted about Russian partisans. Hitler corrected the general. Fighting partisans was a sign of victory, he explained. It meant that the enemy’s main forces were defeated. It meant that Germany’s losses would be comparatively minor. Only those who cannot keep the field in regular warfare hide in caves and snipe at convoys from the underbrush. In totalitarian terms, the Russian action is entirely rational.

One thing is certain: the Russian invasion of Georgia, if it continues, will mark a turning point. Why are the Russians acting in such a bold manner? Some may speculate that it’s about the price of oil, as the world’s second-longest oil pipeline passes through Georgia. And this point should be considered. But more than anything, the invasion impacts U.S.-Russian relations in a decisive manner. It changes the political atmosphere in Europe and the Far East, in Washington and London and Tokyo. The Kremlin strategists already know that the global economy is headed for trouble. This means growing political weakness within the democratic countries.

Already America has been weakened on many fronts. In strategic terms, this may be the perfect moment for Russia to break with the United States. There may never be a better moment to paint America as an imperialist aggressor. In Washington D.C., however, there is no desire for a break with Russia. American policy-makers have long assumed that Russia is a friendly country. They have assumed that disagreements can be worked out, and peace will prevail. There has been no real preparation for a renewed Cold War. Western politicians pose the following questions: Why should the Russians shoot themselves in the foot? Why should they damage their own economic chances? But these questions misunderstand the real situation.

The Russians see America’s weakness. First and foremost, the Americans are unwilling to bomb Iran. They have upset the Saudis by building a Shiite democracy in Iraq. The Americans have angered the Turks by supporting the Iraqi Kurds. The Americans have weakened NATO by admitting too many FSB/KGB-influenced countries into the NATO fold. The Russian leadership probably feels it is time to tip everything over. It is time to expose America’s weakness. What will President Bush do? By the time you read these words, the White House will probably have issued a statement denouncing the Russian invasion. But will American troops be sent to Georgia?

[snip]

Read entire Nyquist column.


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