Monday, July 28, 2008
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Food Prices to Jump Steeply
In my last post here, I indicated that food prices are about to jump about 10% across the board. According to this article, that would be quite a conservative estimate. (I was basing my warning on near-term price hikes I have been notified of already.)
I say again--the smart money today is going into storable food that you buy at today's prices. It's a lock ... you can count on that money invested in something essential to your survival appreciating in value in short order.
US food groups plan hefty price rises
I say again--the smart money today is going into storable food that you buy at today's prices. It's a lock ... you can count on that money invested in something essential to your survival appreciating in value in short order.
US food groups plan hefty price rises
By Elizabeth Rigby in London and Hal Weitzman in Chicago
Published: July 20 2008 17:15 | Last updated: July 20 2008 17:15
US food companies are preparing another round of hefty price increases as soaring commodity costs force them to pass on rises to consumers.
Sara Lee, maker of meat products such as Jimmy Dean sausages, said costs would compel it to push up prices on meat lines by up to a fifth later this year.
“We will be taking price increases on the vast majority of the protein products in this calendar year,” said C.J. Fraleigh, Sara Lee’s chief operating officer for North America, in a recent interview.
“Price increases vary a lot by type of products but the increases will be as low as zero and some products we will decrease on and other increases [will be] in excess of 20 per cent.” Kraft Foods, Kellogg’s, ConAgra and Tyson are also pushing through increases, which are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the US.
US food prices have jumped 5.3 per cent for the year ending in June, the Department of Labor reported last week, adding to the pressures on Americans from rising unemployment, a slumping housing market and higher petrol prices.
The increase in food prices was steep in June, when they moved up 0.8 per cent compared with 0.3 per cent in May.
Crop prices have boomed in recent months on the back of strong demand from emerging economies and supply concerns following floods across the agricultural lands of the US Midwest.
[snip]
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Inflation Hitting Food and Gear Across the Board
Best Prices on Crisis Devices
These are turbulent seas we're sailing, mates. And just like everyone else, we at Safecastle are working as hard as we can to keep our stocks tight and our powder dry.'
The next big onslaught to hit us broadside looks to be a surging wave of inflation. Prices are already taking a toll, of course, but now we are seeing that recent oil-price and transportation-cost hikes, and all the rest are working their way through the entire system, and in some ways being magnified. Really, few products on the market can escape the upward pricing pressures that continue to build.
We're holding the line as best we can for our buyers club members on our preparedness listings. We don't always have the very lowest prices on every item, but as a matter of practice, we do our best and then try to do a little better. Right now, that means delaying the inevitable price hikes for as long as possible, even when we have to start taking losses.
Please consider this email as a friendly advisory to those of you trying to still top off your ship's stores ...
Wholesale price hikes of at least 10% on many storage foods and gear are on the immediate horizon. Beyond that, the skies look dark. All any of us can do for our households is: lay aside the supplies and gear that make sense and that are within our budget today; increase our practical-knowledge base and broaden our living-skill set; and of course we can pray.
Lock In Today's Prices
This much is certain--overall, prices will NOT be coming down for food or equipment. As a customer mentioned, "Today's prices will seem to be too low to believe, tomorrow."
My advice--invest any discretionary funds today in tangible necessities that will store well. Do it with us or somewhere else, but if you want to weather the gales in front of us, you'd better be tying down soon.
As an aside--I am in the middle of reading a book entitled "Wealth, War, and Wisdom" by Barton Biggs. Check it out--it provides authoritative, practical, historical insights into surviving the darkest of days. We don't sell the book, but I suggest you give it a read.
Lastly--lest you come to the conclusion that I am assuming the doom position, I do remain optimistic and hopeful. But for context, that means that I am looking for the world as we know it to still hold water when we come out on the other side.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Were You REALLY Thinking You Could Survive Without Coffee?
What larder is complete without some good long-term storage coffee from Costa Rica? And what about bacon and/or pork sausage?
Can you smell those breakfasts already?
Of course, a variety of spices are needed to keep the palate piqued.
Not to mention some good old American ground beef in cans.
These items make up the very latest additions to our Safecastle storage food pantry.
As always, 20% off to our buyers club members and FREE shipping to the lower 48. All of these food items and most everything else in our store are shipping the same or next business day!
Browse our latest, ready-to-ship foods right here:
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Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Back to the Future - Russia Rattles Old Sabers Over U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Deal
This is turning back the clock for me ... back to the day when it was good to be red, white & blue and it was NOT good at all to be communist.The Russians and their satellites were the enemy. We knew it. They knew it. Everyone else held their breath.
Now our wobbly planet is layer upon layer of misdirection. "They" know what they're up to, we don't seem to have a clue what WE'RE up to.
This saber-rattling (see below) may be scary to some, but in my view, we need to be able to delineate who the enemies are and where they are. If they want to roll up their sleeves and get dirty, we are well-equipped to join them in the box. Re-draw the borders, contain the hostiles in their own lands. Fight over the contested areas and support those who want to be free.
It really should be that simple. We let it become something totally different and we're paying hell for it across the board now.
Might need to take a few steps back to get ahead of the game.
July 8, 2008
Russia threatens military response to US missile defence deal
David Charter, Europe Correspondent
Russia threatens military response to US missile defence deal
David Charter, Europe Correspondent
Russia tonight threatened to retaliate by military means after a deal with the Czech Republic brought the US missile defence system in Europe a step closer.
The threat followed quickly on from the announcement that Condoleezza Rice signed a formal agreement with the Czech Republic to host the radar for the controversial project.
Moscow argues that the missile shield would severely undermine the balance of European security and regards the proposed missile shield based in two former Communist countries as a hostile move.
“We will be forced to react not with diplomatic, but with military-technical methods,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
[snip]
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Monday, July 07, 2008
WSJ: Price of Gas COULD Exceed $6 a Gallon by the End of THIS Year
Looking like our resiliency is about to be severely tested over the next several months. Got preps?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121538739112131075.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
Oil's Rapid Rise Stirs Talk of $200 a Barrel This Year
Long List of Factors Keeps Prices High; Releasing Reserves?
By NEIL KING JR.
July 7, 2008; Page A6
Oil's historic ascent from $100 to nearly $150 a barrel in just six months is lending weight to a far grimmer prediction: Crude could reach $200 a barrel by the end of the year.
Oil at that price would wreak deeper havoc on the world's airlines and automobile industries.
In the U.S., $200 crude would push the price of gasoline to well over $6 a gallon, causing commuters to alter their driving habits more sharply than they have already, while putting extreme strains on large sectors of the U.S. economy. In Europe, it would stir more political unrest and increase the clamor to cut the continent's stiff petrol taxes. In Asia, governments would be under pressure to cut fuel subsidies and risk a popular backlash.
U.S. benchmark crude prices leapt 3.6% last week, closing before the Independence Day holiday at a record $145.29 a barrel. Roughly halfway through the year, oil prices have soared 50% since Jan. 1 and have doubled since the same time last year. (See related article.)
Few oil watchers are now ready to bet that oil will hit $200 a barrel by New Year's Eve. But nearly all are wary of predicting how and when oil's upward stampede will be reversed.
What makes the market so unpredictable, analysts say, is that prices are being pushed by such a wide array of factors, while no single force has emerged with the power to throw them in reverse.
"Crude is going up," said Dave Pursell, an oil analyst at Tudor Pickering in Houston, "because there is nothing strong enough yet to push it down."
[snip]
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121538739112131075.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
Oil's Rapid Rise Stirs Talk of $200 a Barrel This Year
Long List of Factors Keeps Prices High; Releasing Reserves?
By NEIL KING JR.
July 7, 2008; Page A6
Oil's historic ascent from $100 to nearly $150 a barrel in just six months is lending weight to a far grimmer prediction: Crude could reach $200 a barrel by the end of the year.
Oil at that price would wreak deeper havoc on the world's airlines and automobile industries.
In the U.S., $200 crude would push the price of gasoline to well over $6 a gallon, causing commuters to alter their driving habits more sharply than they have already, while putting extreme strains on large sectors of the U.S. economy. In Europe, it would stir more political unrest and increase the clamor to cut the continent's stiff petrol taxes. In Asia, governments would be under pressure to cut fuel subsidies and risk a popular backlash.
U.S. benchmark crude prices leapt 3.6% last week, closing before the Independence Day holiday at a record $145.29 a barrel. Roughly halfway through the year, oil prices have soared 50% since Jan. 1 and have doubled since the same time last year. (See related article.)
Few oil watchers are now ready to bet that oil will hit $200 a barrel by New Year's Eve. But nearly all are wary of predicting how and when oil's upward stampede will be reversed.
What makes the market so unpredictable, analysts say, is that prices are being pushed by such a wide array of factors, while no single force has emerged with the power to throw them in reverse.
"Crude is going up," said Dave Pursell, an oil analyst at Tudor Pickering in Houston, "because there is nothing strong enough yet to push it down."
[snip]
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, July 04, 2008
Independence Day, 2008
No apologies from this quarter. The people of the United States of America enjoy the liberties and opportunities others covet.
Freedom is not free. Generations of sacrificing Americans have hoisted this country into the position of global leader. But it is God who has blessed our nation.
Until a greater, more just and deserving representative of civilized progress emerges, we are wholly responsible to maintain the moral and spiritual high ground in order to hold off the forces of evil and oppression.
Until a greater, more just and deserving representative of civilized progress emerges, we are wholly responsible to maintain the moral and spiritual high ground in order to hold off the forces of evil and oppression.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Why Gun Control Flopped in America
http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentary/22841664.html?page=1&c=y
Legal contrarians challenged prevailing views. But perhaps more importantly, the bans just didn't help.
By Steve Chapman , Chicago Tribune
Last update: July 2, 2008 - 7:18 PM
Thomas Jefferson once wrote pessimistically, "The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." He would probably not have been surprised to see the proliferation of gun-control laws in our time. But he might not have anticipated that the water would run back uphill.
Last week's Supreme Court decision affirming that the Second Amendment recognizes an individual right to own firearms for self-defense was a vindication of those who have long argued that position. But it was an even more stunning defeat for advocates of gun control, who not so long ago seemed to have history, law and public sympathy on their side.
In the 1980s and '90s, as violence raged at epidemic levels, the preferred remedy of policymakers was to restrict the manufacture, sale and ownership of firearms. Washington, D.C., had banned handguns in 1976, and in 1982, Chicago did likewise. Meanwhile, the federal government and several states outlawed "assault weapons" -- semiautomatic guns with a military appearance.
It looked as though ever-stricter gun control was the wave of the future. But the future had different ideas. What happened? Three main things:
• Gun control didn't work. In the 1990s, despite its draconian ban, Washington became the murder capital of the United States. Chicago's homicide rate, which had been declining in the years before it banned handguns, climbed over the following decade.
During the time the federal assault weapons law was in effect, the number of gun murders declined -- but so did murders involving knives and other weapons. When the law was allowed to expire in 2004, something interesting happened to the national murder rate: nothing.
• Laws allowing concealed weapons proliferated -- with no ill effects. In 1987, Florida gained national attention -- and notoriety -- by passing a law allowing citizens to get permits to carry concealed handguns. Opponents predicted a wave of carnage by pistol-packing hotheads, but it didn't happen. In fact, murders and other violent crimes subsided. Permit holders proved to be sober and restrained.
People elsewhere took heed, and today, according to the NRA, 40 states have "right-to-carry" laws. As those laws have spread, the homicide rate has fallen sharply from the peak reached in 1991.
• The Second Amendment got a second look. In 1983, a San Francisco lawyer named Don Kates published an article in the University of Michigan Law Review arguing that, contrary to prevailing wisdom in the judiciary and law schools, the Constitution upholds an individual right to keep and bear arms. Numerous legal scholars, spurred to examine the record, reached the same surprising conclusion. Before long, even some liberal law professors were coming around.
The majority opinion last week, written by Justice Antonin Scalia, drew heavily on this stack of scholarship to argue that the framers did not limit the right to the context of service in a state militia. Without the stimulus provided by these contrarian thinkers, the decision would never have come to pass.
Instead, the right to keep and bear arms has finally taken its rightful place with our other fundamental liberties. It may be the natural course of things for government control to expand and freedom to shrink. But as Jefferson knew, America was founded to reverse that process.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Legal contrarians challenged prevailing views. But perhaps more importantly, the bans just didn't help.
By Steve Chapman , Chicago Tribune
Last update: July 2, 2008 - 7:18 PM
Thomas Jefferson once wrote pessimistically, "The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." He would probably not have been surprised to see the proliferation of gun-control laws in our time. But he might not have anticipated that the water would run back uphill.
Last week's Supreme Court decision affirming that the Second Amendment recognizes an individual right to own firearms for self-defense was a vindication of those who have long argued that position. But it was an even more stunning defeat for advocates of gun control, who not so long ago seemed to have history, law and public sympathy on their side.
In the 1980s and '90s, as violence raged at epidemic levels, the preferred remedy of policymakers was to restrict the manufacture, sale and ownership of firearms. Washington, D.C., had banned handguns in 1976, and in 1982, Chicago did likewise. Meanwhile, the federal government and several states outlawed "assault weapons" -- semiautomatic guns with a military appearance.
It looked as though ever-stricter gun control was the wave of the future. But the future had different ideas. What happened? Three main things:
• Gun control didn't work. In the 1990s, despite its draconian ban, Washington became the murder capital of the United States. Chicago's homicide rate, which had been declining in the years before it banned handguns, climbed over the following decade.
During the time the federal assault weapons law was in effect, the number of gun murders declined -- but so did murders involving knives and other weapons. When the law was allowed to expire in 2004, something interesting happened to the national murder rate: nothing.
• Laws allowing concealed weapons proliferated -- with no ill effects. In 1987, Florida gained national attention -- and notoriety -- by passing a law allowing citizens to get permits to carry concealed handguns. Opponents predicted a wave of carnage by pistol-packing hotheads, but it didn't happen. In fact, murders and other violent crimes subsided. Permit holders proved to be sober and restrained.
People elsewhere took heed, and today, according to the NRA, 40 states have "right-to-carry" laws. As those laws have spread, the homicide rate has fallen sharply from the peak reached in 1991.
• The Second Amendment got a second look. In 1983, a San Francisco lawyer named Don Kates published an article in the University of Michigan Law Review arguing that, contrary to prevailing wisdom in the judiciary and law schools, the Constitution upholds an individual right to keep and bear arms. Numerous legal scholars, spurred to examine the record, reached the same surprising conclusion. Before long, even some liberal law professors were coming around.
The majority opinion last week, written by Justice Antonin Scalia, drew heavily on this stack of scholarship to argue that the framers did not limit the right to the context of service in a state militia. Without the stimulus provided by these contrarian thinkers, the decision would never have come to pass.
Instead, the right to keep and bear arms has finally taken its rightful place with our other fundamental liberties. It may be the natural course of things for government control to expand and freedom to shrink. But as Jefferson knew, America was founded to reverse that process.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, June 27, 2008
Food Prices--May 2007 - May 2008
Click on the graphic to see a larger version (if you dare).
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Everything Seemingly is Spinning Out of Control
Saturday, June 21, 2008 11:00 AMWASHINGTON -- Is everything spinning out of control?
Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism.
Horatio Alger, twist in your grave.
The can-do, bootstrap approach embedded in the American psyche is under assault. Eroding it is a dour powerlessness that is chipping away at the country's sturdy conviction that destiny can be commanded with sheer courage and perseverance.
The sense of helplessness is even reflected in this year's presidential election. Each contender offers a sense of order _ and hope. Republican John McCain promises an experienced hand in a frightening time. Democrat Barack Obama promises bright and shiny change, and his large crowds believe his exhortation, "Yes, we can."
Even so, a battered public seems discouraged by the onslaught of dispiriting things. An Associated Press-Ipsos poll says a barrel-scraping 17 percent of people surveyed believe the country is moving in the right direction. That is the lowest reading since the survey began in 2003.
An ABC News-Washington Post survey put that figure at 14 percent, tying the low in more than three decades of taking soundings on the national mood.
"It is pretty scary," said Charles Truxal, 64, a retired corporate manager in Rochester, Minn. "People are thinking things are going to get better, and they haven't been. And then you go hide in your basement because tornadoes are coming through. If you think about things, you have very little power to make it change."
[snip] Read entire article.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, June 20, 2008
Summer Food and FREEbies Sale--They're Going Fast
We gave the heads up here a few days ago that we were going to be launching this very special food and freebies sale.This morning, our buyers club members got the email that we were opening up the doors. I finally just caught up enough to put the word out here now. All of this is selling fast. We knew it would--great prices on emergency storage food, including on a great variety of Mountain House cans AND FREE PREP GEAR thrown in for good measure, such as NukAlerts and Maxpedition Merlin fold-up backpacks, and more.
Unless things suddenly slow up, everything will be gone in days. So act now.
Here's the official announcement for this buy:
Last Mountain House Cans Opportunity till Fall
PLUS Great Freebies Thrown In !!!
FREE NukAlerts, Maxpedition Merlins, Bail-Out Bags, and Compact SW Radios!
Summer is here! To celebrate, we are today kicking off our excessively extravagant (and my son/accountant tells me "foolish") Summer Food and Freebies Sale.
All of the items in this sale are available in very limited quantities, so there is no time to delay. (Orders are being taken now; shipping on everything begins June 27.)
In a nutshell ...
1. We have some of our famous 3-case/18-can Mountain House variety kits in hand and ready to ship. This represents the last large bulk MH order we placed right at the May 15 deadline when Mountain House stopped taking orders for cans until further notice. The next opportunity at MH cans will be in the fall (hopefully). Kit price for members on these is $439, shipping included to the lower 48!
2. We also have a couple of new Complementary food packages assembled for this sale. Package One includes a case of canned Yoders whole wheat flour, long grain white rice, and B&M bread. Package Two includes full cases of canned Red Feather butter and cheese. Both packages are $219 for our members, shipped to the lower 48. Plus ... you can add-on a one-gallon bucket of Wildflower Honey for just $49.
3. Those package prices with free shipping are great. But this is the crazy part. I am giving away a limited number of Nukalerts, Maxpedition Merlin folding backpacks, Bail-Out Bags, and compact shortwave radios with qualifying purchases. (One Freebie per customer.) Look around and see what these items are worth, and you'll see what my son means--"This is crazy!"
4. Navigate the Summer Food and FREEbies sale here, and don't delay. We'll be out of stock in just days.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Imminent Food and Freebies Sale!
As a courtesy, and to be as fair as possible, I am giving notice to our friends here of a very special sale that will be announced in the next few days.This pre-announcement is to be sure that those of you who are interested are pre-positioned to take advantage before the goods you want are gone.
And believe me, some of these items WILL be gone pronto. More on that momentarily ...
First, what you want to do to be ready for this is to be sure you are a member of our buyers club. If you are, you are good. (This assumes you have been receiving our frequent bulk emails. If you have not--email me now at jcrefuge@safecastle.net with your email address so I can check to make sure you have not been removed from our list. Please also make sure my email address is entered into your email admin as an address that you do NOT want blocked or sent into your spam folder.)
If you are not yet a member, it's a one-time $19 fee. That gets you at least 20% off everything in our store all the time AND FREE Shipping to the lower 48 as well. Simply join here today, and you will be added to our email list for first notice on the sale/giveaway details.
The Upcoming Food and Freebie Sale
I'm not releasing ALL the specifics here yet, but this is what I can say ...
1. Member purchases of any emergency storage food at the standard 20% discount, or of one or more of the special food package offers below, qualify for the giveaways.
2. Giveaways will include NukAlerts or portable shortwave radios with long-wire roll-out antennas and carry pouch (with qualifying food purchases of at least $439), and Maxpedition Merlin folding backpacks or Maratac bail-out bags (with qualifying food purchases of at least $219).
3. We have put together at least three specially discounted, AFFORDABLE storage food packages with additional price breaks for this offer.
The foods in these special packages will include another ever-popular Mountain House 3-#10 can case kit (we have the food on hand and ready to ship), Red Feather butter and cheese, B&M canned bread, white rice, whole wheat flour, and wildflower honey.
4. The freebies are available in limited quanitity as are the MH food kits. These are first-come, first-serve offers, while supplies last. One freebie per customer.
5. This is a break-even (hopefully) kind of effort from us at Safecastle in order to get our members feeling good about where they stand, in spite of the prospect of food prices continuing to skyrocket into the foreseeable future. These deals are as good as it gets today. (Tomorrow they will be dearly missed.)
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Saturday, June 14, 2008
30% OFF! June ONLY - Any and All NBC Filtration/Ventilation Systems
Same Equipment Installed in Command Bunkers, Bomb Shelters, Military Vehicles, Hospital Isolation Rooms, and Safe Rooms Around the World
The manufacturer needs to move product now. So we have a very unusual opportunity only through the end of this month to offer our buyers club members--30% off our list prices for any NBC Filter/Ventilation equipment we sell (and if you don't see an item you need listed, we can get it for you and get you the same 30% discount).
Got a bunker, a basement room, or a room in your house you want to set up as a saferoom against airborne contaminants--to include chemical, biological, or radiological? Then this is your chance to get the system you can absolutely rely on.
EXAMPLE: OUR COMPLETE NBC FILTRATION PACKAGE
OUR LIST PRICE: $4100, SHIPPING INCLUDED
OUR NORMAL BUYERS CLUB DISCOUNTED PRICE: $3280
JUNE-ONLY 30% DISCOUNTED PRICE: $2870! Free shipping to the lower 48.
Other filtration listings can be seen here.
To get the June 30% discounts, members can simply make your purchase online or call us. We'll apply the 30% off for our club members before we charge your card.
If you need to become a member--make the one-time $19 membership purchase, and you'll always get at least 20% off everything we sell!
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
"The Unthinkable, Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why"
Another book for my reading list, for sure ...Would You Survive a Disaster?
Depends on your gender, your reaction time, and a little luck. A new book shows how you can up your odds.
By Abigail Pesta
When Amanda Ripley set out to study the world’s deadliest catastrophes for her new book, The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes — And Why, her family worried that she’d get depressed. After all, she’d be delving deep into the minds of people who endured tragedies ranging from the 9/11 attacks to the Asian tsunami. But in fact, says Ripley, a reporter for Time, “I actually found the whole thing encouraging. Once you talk to survivors and strip the mystery from a shocking event, you can see that the experience is never as frightening as you would imagine.” Time and again, she says, people reported a sense of dreamlike calm: “They said, ‘You know what? I thought I was going to die, but it wasn’t really scary.’” Here, the author shares other key insights.
IN ANY UNEXPECTED CRISIS, THERE’S AN ODD SENSE OF LETHARGY. In other words, your brain is trying to sort out new and disturbing information, and it doesn’t act fast. “The most startling thing I learned about 9/11 was the slowness with which people moved,” says Ripley. “Many took the time to turn off their computers.” But you can fight off that stupor — simply by knowing to expect it.
PEOPLE RARELY KNOW WHERE TO FIND AN EXIT — IN OFFICES, HOTELS, PLANES. “I always learn a couple of exits, so if I’m in a hotel and there’s a fire, I know where to go,” says Ripley. “Plane-crash survivors do the same thing.” She also suggests keeping a pair of sneakers at work — high heels slowed women down on 9/11.
SOMETIMES IT HELPS TO BE A WOMAN IN A DISASTER. Women tend to fare better than men in events like hurricanes and floods. Why? “They’re more likely to evacuate when they’re advised to do so,” says Ripley. “Men tend to take more risks.” But to be fair to guys, she adds, research shows that men — especially blue-collar single men — are more likely to do heroic things, like risk their lives to save others. Cheers to that.
SURVIVING BY THE NUMBERS
- 91% of Americans live in places with a moderate to high risk of natural disaster or terrorism.
- 65% of those who died in natural disasters from ‘85 to ‘99 came from undeveloped nations.
- 9% of heroic acts recorded from ‘89 to ‘93 were performed by women.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Anxiety About This Year's Harvests
The world NEEDS plentiful harvests this year to get through the present food crisis. Unfortunately ...Worries mount as world's farmers push for big harvest
By David Streitfeld and Keith Bradsher
Published: June 10, 2008
GRIFFIN, Indiana: In a year when global harvests need to be excellent to ease the threat of pervasive food shortages, evidence is mounting that they will be average at best. Some farmers are starting to fear disaster.
American corn and soybean farmers are suffering from too much rain, while Australian wheat farmers have been plagued by drought.
"The planting has gotten off to a poor start," said Bill Nelson, a Wachovia grains analyst. "The anxiety level is increasing."
[snip]
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Friday, June 06, 2008
Israel: Attack on Iran Inevitable
The clock ticks, we're running out of tricks ...
Israeli minister says alternatives to attack on Iran running out
Jun 6 03:36 AM US/Eastern
An Israeli deputy prime minister on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme.
"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it," said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.
"Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme," Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot daily.
He stressed such an operation could only be conducted with US support.
A former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, Mofaz hopes to replace embattled Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima party.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Israeli minister says alternatives to attack on Iran running out
Jun 6 03:36 AM US/Eastern
An Israeli deputy prime minister on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme.
"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it," said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.
"Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme," Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot daily.
He stressed such an operation could only be conducted with US support.
A former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, Mofaz hopes to replace embattled Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima party.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Oil and Food Defining a New Major Global Paradigm
With permission from Stratfor, George Friedman's initial take on how the global dynamic is being transformed before our eyes by the rise in oil and food prices is a must-read ...
May 27, 2008
May 27, 2008
The Geopolitics of $130 Oil
By George FriedmanOil prices have risen dramatically over the past year. When they passed $100 a barrel, they hit new heights, expressed in dollars adjusted for inflation. As they passed $120 a barrel, they clearly began to have global impact. Recently, we have seen startling rises in the price of food, particularly grains. Apart from higher prices, there have been disruptions in the availability of food as governments limit food exports and as hoarding increases in anticipation of even higher prices.
Oil and food differ from other commodities in that they are indispensable for the functioning of society. Food obviously is the more immediately essential. Food shortages can trigger social and political instability with startling swiftness. It does not take long to starve to death. Oil has a less-immediate — but perhaps broader — impact. Everything, including growing and marketing food, depends on energy; and oil is the world’s primary source of energy, particularly in transportation. Oil and grains — where the shortages hit hardest — are not merely strategic commodities. They are geopolitical commodities. All nations require them, and a shift in the price or availability of either triggers shifts in relationships within and among nations.
It is not altogether clear to us why oil and grains have behaved as they have. The question for us is what impact this generalized rise in commodity prices — particularly energy and food — will have on the international system. We understand that it is possible that the price of both will plunge. There is certainly a speculative element in both. Nevertheless, based on the realities of supply conditions, we do not expect the price of either to fall to levels that existed in 2003. We will proceed in this analysis on the assumption that these prices will fluctuate, but that they will remain dramatically higher than prices were from the 1980s to the mid-2000s.
If that assumption is true and we continue to see elevated commodity prices, perhaps rising substantially higher than they are now, then it seems to us that we have entered a new geopolitical era. Since the end of World War II, we have lived in three geopolitical regimes, broadly understood:
- The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, in which the focus was on the military balance between those two countries, particularly on the nuclear balance. During this period, all countries, in some way or another, defined their behavior in terms of the U.S.-Soviet competition.
- The period from the fall of the Berlin Wall until 9/11, when the primary focus of the world was on economic development. This was the period in which former communist countries redefined themselves, East and Southeast Asian economies surged and collapsed, and China grew dramatically. It was a period in which politico-military power was secondary and economic power primary.
- The period from 9/11 until today that has been defined in terms of the increasing complexity of the U.S.-jihadist war — a reality that supplanted the second phase and redefined the international system dramatically.
With the U.S.-jihadist war in either a stalemate or a long-term evolution, its impact on the international system is diminishing. First, it has lost its dynamism. The conflict is no longer drawing other countries into it. Second, it is becoming an endemic reality rather than an urgent crisis. The international system has accommodated itself to the conflict, and its claims on that system are lessening.
The surge in commodity prices — particularly oil — has superseded the U.S.-jihadist war, much as the war superseded the period in which economic issues dominated the global system. This does not mean that the U.S.-jihadist war will not continue to rage, any more than 9/11 abolished economic issues. Rather, it means that a new dynamic has inserted itself into the international system and is in the process of transforming it.
It is a cliche that money and power are linked. It is nevertheless true. Economic power creates political and military power, just as political and military power can create economic power. The rise in the price of oil is triggering shifts in economic power that are in turn creating changes in the international order. This was not apparent until now because of three reasons. First, oil prices had not risen to the level where they had geopolitical impact. The system was ignoring higher prices. Second, they had not been joined in crisis condition by grain prices. Third, the permanence of higher prices had not been clear. When $70-a-barrel oil seemed impermanent, and likely to fall below $50, oil was viewed very differently than it was at $130, where a decline to $100 would be dramatic and a fall to $70 beyond the calculation of most. As oil passed $120 a barrel, the international system, in our view, started to reshape itself in what will be a long-term process.
Obviously, the winners in this game are those who export oil, and the losers are those who import it. The victory is not only economic but political as well. The ability to control where exports go and where they don’t go transforms into political power. The ability to export in a seller’s market not only increases wealth but also increases the ability to coerce, if that is desired.
The game is somewhat more complex than this. The real winners are countries that can export and generate cash in excess of what they need domestically. So countries such as Venezuela, Indonesia and Nigeria might benefit from higher prices, but they absorb all the wealth that is transferred to them. Countries such as Saudi Arabia do not need to use so much of their wealth for domestic needs. They control huge and increasing pools of cash that they can use for everything from achieving domestic political stability to influencing regional governments and the global economic system. Indeed, the entire Arabian Peninsula is in this position.
The big losers are countries that not only have to import oil but also are heavily industrialized relative to their economy. Countries in which service makes up a larger sector than manufacturing obviously use less oil for critical economic functions than do countries that are heavily manufacturing-oriented. Certainly, consumers in countries such as the United States are hurt by rising prices. And these countries’ economies might slow. But higher oil prices simply do not have the same impact that they do on countries that both are primarily manufacturing-oriented and have a consumer base driving cars.
East Asia has been most affected by the combination of sustained high oil prices and disruptions in the food supply. Japan, which imports all of its oil and remains heavily industrialized (along with South Korea), is obviously affected. But the most immediately affected is China, where shortages of diesel fuel have been reported. China’s miracle — rapid industrialization — has now met its Achilles’ heel: high energy prices.
China is facing higher energy prices at a time when the U.S. economy is weak and the ability to raise prices is limited. As oil prices increase costs, the Chinese continue to export and, with some exceptions, are holding prices. The reason is simple. The Chinese are aware that slowing exports could cause some businesses to fail. That would lead to unemployment, which in turn will lead to instability. The Chinese have their hands full between natural disasters, Tibet, terrorism and the Olympics. They do not need a wave of business failures.
Therefore, they are continuing to cap the domestic price of gasoline. This has caused tension between the government and Chinese oil companies, which have refused to distribute at capped prices. Behind this power struggle is this reality: The Chinese government can afford to subsidize oil prices to maintain social stability, but given the need to export, they are effectively squeezing profits out of exports. Between subsidies and no-profit exports, China’s reserves could shrink with remarkable speed, leaving their financial system — already overloaded with nonperforming loans — vulnerable. If they take the cap off, they face potential domestic unrest.
The Chinese dilemma is present throughout Asia. But just as Asia is the big loser because of long-term high oil prices coupled with food disruptions, Russia is the big winner. Russia is an exporter of natural gas and oil. It also could be a massive exporter of grains if prices were attractive enough and if it had the infrastructure (crop failures in Russia are a thing of the past). Russia has been very careful, under Vladimir Putin, not to assume that energy prices will remain high and has taken advantage of high prices to accumulate substantial foreign currency reserves. That puts them in a doubly-strong position. Economically, they are becoming major players in global acquisitions. Politically, countries that have become dependent on Russian energy exports — and this includes a good part of Europe — are vulnerable, precisely because the Russians are in a surplus-cash position. They could tweak energy availability, hurting the Europeans badly, if they chose. T hey will not need to. The Europeans, aware of what could happen, will tread lightly in order to ensure that it doesn’t happen.
As we have already said, the biggest winners are the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Although somewhat strained, these countries never really suffered during the period of low oil prices. They have now more than rebalanced their financial system and are making the most of it. This is a time when they absolutely do not want anything disrupting the flow of oil from their region. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, for example, would be disastrous to them. We therefore see the Saudis, in particular, taking steps to stabilize the region. This includes supporting Israeli-Syrian peace talks, using influence with Sunnis in Iraq to confront al Qaeda, making certain that Shiites in Saudi Arabia profit from the boom. (Other Gulf countries are doing the same with their Shiites. This is designed to remove one of Iran’s levers in the region: a rising of Shiites in the Arabian Peninsula.) In addition, the Saudis are using their economic power to re-establish the relationship they ha d with the United States before 9/11. With the financial institutions in the United States in disarray, the Arabian Peninsula can be very helpful.
China is in an increasingly insular and defensive position. The tension is palpable, particularly in Central Asia, which Russia has traditionally dominated and where China is becoming increasingly active in making energy investments. The Russians are becoming more assertive, using their economic position to improve their geopolitical position in the region. The Saudis are using their money to try to stabilize the region. With oil above $120 a barrel, the last thing they need is a war disrupting their ability to sell. They do not want to see the Iranians mining the Strait of Hormuz or the Americans trying to blockade Iran.
The Iranians themselves are facing problems. Despite being the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, Iran also is the world’s second-largest gasoline importer, taking in roughly 40 percent of its annual demand. Because of the type of oil they have, and because they have neglected their oil industry over the last 30 years, their ability to participate in the bonanza is severely limited. It is obvious that there is now internal political tension between the president and the religious leadership over the status of the economy. Put differently, Iranians are asking how they got into this situation.
Suddenly, the regional dynamics have changed. The Saudi royal family is secure against any threats. They can buy peace on the Peninsula. The high price of oil makes even Iraqis think that it might be time to pump more oil rather than fight. Certainly the Iranians, Saudis and Kuwaitis are thinking of ways of getting into the action, and all have the means and geography to benefit from an Iraqi oil renaissance. The war in Iraq did not begin over oil — a point we have made many times — but it might well be brought under control because of oil.
For the United States, the situation is largely a push. The United States is an oil importer, but its relative vulnerability to high energy prices is nothing like it was in 1973, during the Arab oil embargo. De-industrialization has clearly had its upside. At the same time, the United States is a food exporter, along with Canada, Australia, Argentina and others. Higher grain prices help the United States. The shifts will not change the status of the United States, but they might create a new dynamic in the Gulf region that could change the framework of the Iraqi war.
This is far from an exhaustive examination of the global shifts caused by rising oil and grain prices. Our point is this: High oil prices can increase as well as decrease stability. In Iraq — but not in Afghanistan — the war has already been regionally overshadowed by high oil prices. Oil-exporting countries are in a moneymaking mode, and even the Iranians are trying to figure out how to get into the action; it’s hard to see how they can without the participation of the Western oil majors — and this requires burying the hatchet with the United States. Groups such as al Qaeda and Hezbollah are decidedly secondary to these considerations.
We are very early in this process, and these are just our opening thoughts. But in our view, a wire has been tripped, and the world is refocusing on high commodity prices. As always in geopolitics, issues from the last generation linger, but they are no longer the focus. Last week there was talk of Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) talks between the United States and Russia — a fossil from the Cold War. These things never go away. But history moves on. It seems to us that history is moving.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
Monday, May 26, 2008
Memorial Day 2008
To those who made the greatest sacrifice for our nation and our way of life ... we are in debt, may we never forget.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Food Crisis Today is Just the Start
Paul Roberts, the author of the new book, "The End of Food," offers a timely eye-opening editorial below that must be digested if you are of the opinion that the food situation is going to be resolved anytime soon.Today's food crisis isn't a blip
By Paul E. Roberts
For anyone wondering where food prices are really headed, the news that Beijing has begun buying up farmland in Africa and South America offers a troubling hint. When China began acquiring oil fields in the 1990s, it signaled both the end of China's self-sufficiency in oil and the start of a competition between China and other big oil importers that helped push crude prices to their current record levels. That the world's most populous nation now seeks to lock up pieces of foreign food production not only confirms that China has reached the end of food self-sufficiency as well, but suggests that Western hopes for a quick end to today's food-price crisis could be overly optimistic.
According to conventional wisdom, our food crunch is a temporary glitch. Because grain shortages are being caused by many factors — new demand by biofuel refineries, drought in Australia, among others — the pain can't last. Eventually, drought will abate. Biofuels programs will be reined in. Most important, farmers will plant more acres and boost global supplies, just as they always have during shortages. Food may never again be dirt cheap, but by next year, prices for key crops will swing back to a more moderate line. Right?
It's a comforting picture, to be sure. But as Beijing's real-estate spree suggests, food prices are being driven by deeper, more fundamental factors that won't be so easily resolved.
[snip] (Read full editorial here.)Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com
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