Friday, May 04, 2012

Heed the News from Mountain House

Mountain House can prices WILL be going up soon.
Supply inventories WILL be going down.

Safecastle is a major dealer for Mountain House freeze dried food. We have been for almost 10 years. Through that time we've seen several severe swings in supply and demand in the storage food marketplace.

Our history has borne out the value of staying ahead of the hordes with regard to demand surges and supply shortages. We have usually been able to warn and prepare our customers months in advance of what was about to occur in this area.

Today, we received a communication that was sent out to dealers, so here again--a warning for you that you can take under consideration:

Market conditions and capacity issues at OFD (producer of Mountain House) have brought about a decision by the manufacturer to stop building #10 can inventory. Thus, going forward, we expect supply at the retail level for some MH canned food will become challenging, with backorders becoming more common in the very near future again. Over the next few months, the supply and demand situation will become worse. Remember last year? Or a handful of other times in the last decade?

When (not if) the next trigger occurs out there to cause another stampede into preparedness (ala Hurricane Katrina or any number of other recent events), inventories will very quickly be depleted and it will take months to again allow the best quality food producers out to ramp back up in response. I've been in this business long enough to understand the cyclical nature of what is going on, and to see clearly that the next leg down is now in the works.

Another factor that I believe will make this situation a bit worse you, the customer--the number of MH dealers out there is greatly diminished after last year's 6-month MH supply drought.
 
When you boil it all down, we expect to see a return to severe supply and demand volatility in the MH and in the storage food marketplace in general.

I know our long-time customers appreciate getting these kinds of insights from us when they can take advantage. Right now, of course, our MH cans sale is down to our last two days. It really is the best deal available to you in our history and for the forseeable future.

Oh--and we also just got word today that the first backorder has forced us to remove the popular MH Mexican Rice and Chicken entree in #10 cans from our listings--it is unknown when it will be back in production.

Otherwise--everything else is still in stock and shipping out within a week!



Stay safe.

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