There are two ways to sleep well at night ... be ignorant or be prepared.

Friday, January 30, 2009

On the Cusp of Catastrophic Emotions Like Envy and Ethnic Intolerance

Once again Jeff Nyquist cuts right to the bone in his latest commentary, which I encourage you to read in its entirety (click on the title below):

Compound Errors
by J.R. Nyquist
1-30-09

Excerpt:

... When the government’s policies lead us from disaster to disaster, and the people are suffering, the outcome will devolve into an ideological battle between differing brands of nonsense.

What nonsense is likely to triumph? We don’t know the answer, as yet, because everything depends on the leaders that emerge as the crisis develops. Negative emotions, like envy and ethnic intolerance, are likely candidates. We must hope and pray they will not be exploited by political opportunists or demagogues. The danger is greatest when the people lose their patience. But first, many will lose their jobs, their life savings, and their future prospects.


This country needs a patient and tolerant spirit. We need unity and caution, if only to preserve those institutions which stand between our existence and the abyss. We must not forget that America’s nuclear arsenal upholds global order. The nuclear missiles of Russia and China are aimed at us, even now, because these countries want to form a new world order – in which they dominate. If the United States loses its nuclear deterrent as the result of internal disorders, then Russia and China will be tempted to carry out their destructive plans. In that event, a compound negative interest will be applied to the population and wealth of the entire world – and a new Dark Age will be born.


[snip]
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Get Ready ... Seriously - http://www.safecastleroyal.com

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Wiegand's Calls for 2009 - Ignore at Your Peril

This is quite a description of what this trader sees in store for the rest of the year. (Click on the link and scroll down to view the entire article.)

More Trader Tracks Predictions for 2009 - Series #3
Wednesday January 21, 2009
The following is by technical analyst, Roger Wiegand, editor of Trader Tracks.

Excerpt:

... in April we are expecting a quintuple smash of:

1.Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures. Some of the biggest of the big buildings will be foreclosed and those planned but not built will never see daylight. Meanwhile, vacancies skyrocket while budgets are busted with dropping rents. One analyst estimated the New York City Financial district buildings will see 66% occupancies with breakeven budgets being much higher. You will see some major shopping malls shut down.


2.The second wave of residential foreclosures and loan failures arrives dragging down all real estate values both commercial and residential. They will sink like a rock in over-built states and within those regions previously hit the worst. This is related to the next mortgage failure cycle. Some of those formerly upscale, McMansion subdivisions will turn into ghost towns.


3.Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.


4.Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new number of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most of it is due to overspending by cardholders.


5.Wave one of the CDS Credit Default Swaps will hit markets like a Tsunami. These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and flabbergasted by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts. One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There is no margin or deposit money on these trades.

View the article.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - http://www.safecastleroyal.com

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Job Trends in Graph Form

Just came across this page at www.layoffdaily.com and thought some might want to bookmark it:

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Global Economy Shutting Down Faster than Expected

Better consider carefully your next moves.

Downturn Accelerates As It Circles The Globe

Economies Worse Off Than Predicted Just Weeks Ago

by Anthony Faiola
Washington Post
Saturday, January 24

The world economy is deteriorating more quickly than leading economists predicted only weeks ago, with Britain yesterday becoming the latest nation to surprise analysts with the depth of its economic pain.

Britain posted its worst quarterly contraction since 1980 on the heels of sharper than expected slowdowns reported from Germany to China to South Korea. The grim data, analysts said, underscores how the burst of the biggest credit bubble in history is seeping into the real economies around the world, silencing construction cranes, bankrupting businesses and throwing millions of people out of work.

"In just the past few days, we've had a big downward revision, we're seeing that an even bigger deceleration is on the way than we thought," said Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

[snip]

Read entire article.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - http://www.safecastleroyal.com

Thursday, January 22, 2009

A depression in store? When will we know?

This is certainly worth reading. Open minds agree that the answer won't be known for some time, but for those who embrace the logic of preparedness, the fact that another Great Depression is a very real possibility is reason for decisive action.

Recession or depression? Too early to tell

Many differences between now and 1930s but some similarities, too

by John W Schoen
Senior producer, msnbc.com

By every measure — lost jobs, plunging stock prices, scarce credit and a profound loss of confidence in the banking system — the economy is in awful shape.

The nation's 11th recession of the postwar era began in December 2007 and easily could become the longest since the Great Depression, although most forecasters expect a weak recovery to begin in the second half of this year.

But what are the odds that we’re in the early stages of what will eventually become a depression rather than just a recession?

The answer starts with definitions. While the term "depression" is reserved for the most extreme economic collapses, there is no technical definition, say economists. [snip]

See the entire article.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - http://www.safecastleroyal.com

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Preparedness Today, in the Extreme

It's been a good long while since I've had the time for a genuine blog post here, so I'm going to steal the time right now to make various comments on the state of the world as they pertain to crisis preparedness.

1. Note that Safecastle LLC is growing by leaps and bounds, especially in the last six months when the whole world has woken up to the fact that the economy is threatening to destroy pretty much all of what modern society has to offer. Those looking to sock supplies away at this late date are desperate. We and all other preparedness-related providers are scrambling to respond. Demand continues to trend upward. Unfortunately, supplies of available food and gear is finite and in many cases is being depleted faster than the capacity out there to replenish can deliver. And "deliver" is key. Transport and delivery is increasingly looking to be the weakest link in a deteriorating (or at least threatened) national supply chain.

2. There has always been a lively and imaginative subculture of doomsayers out and about. But these last several months seem to have given the type an injection of highly caffeinated HGH. The looming great depression is not enough to wail and moan about, so now we also have the threatening Yellowstone mega-eruption, a new ice age bearing down, the bird flu re-emerging, war in the Middle East (again), India and Pakistan in a staredown, a promised huge terror strike to test the new administration, Russia freezing out eastern Europe, and even a growing murmur in the American population that some might say sounds like the beginnings of widespread social strife. So yep--there's a lot to speculate about and potentially prepare for. The pundits who are so inclined are dealing with no dearth of material to work into their daily programming.

3. My personal bug-a-boo of the day is the socialism that once was creeping into our lives but is now front and center and in the spotlight. As an old Cold Warrior and a small business owner, I find it all very disturbing. The ways that the public are being frozen out of the governmental proceedings which are evidently aimed at bailing out a few powerful individuals is something that smacks royally of a last-ditch plunder-the-treasury effort just before the defenses break down and the marauders storm into the capital (metaphorically speaking?).

4. I have to admit that I too have been in prepping overdrive, looking to fill remaining gaps in our household's resource base. Friends and relatives who recently were merely curious about our line of work are now actively seeking our advice and assistance. I'm happy to do whatever I can for folks as that is why I went into the business, but I really don't know for how long our supply lines will be solid and dependable. The signs out there are real. The thing that even still most people can't seem to get past is that there could very well come a day when there aren't going to be needed resources available for purchase--convenient or not. Running down to the gas station, the hardware store, the grocery store, or the pharmacy for what you just remembered is not going to be an option if any of the current crises are brought to a boil.

For those of us who have been raised and lived all our lives in America, supply-chain failures, famines, or resource shortages are just completely off our radar. We have not truly experienced the depth and breadth of how those things ripple through a society and tear it apart if solutions are not visible on the horizon.

Most people recognize on some level now how close we are to the edge, though a majority still are in denial about it. God help us if and when conditions deteriorate much further and the masses break into a panic. If that happens, do not get swept up in it. Step away. Take refuge and bolster your defenses. In the meantime, get down to the grocery store, the pharmacy, and the hardware store. The doors are still open and the lines are manageable today.
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Get Ready ... Seriously - http://www.safecastleroyal.com

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Palin's Take on the Media's Appetite for Her

Preparedness? ... well, this interview with Sarah Palin and the larger documentary it will be part of regarding the media's behavior is worthwhile. How and why the media does what it does will continue to be important to all of us as we try to discern what is really afoot.


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