Sometimes, I find it worthwhile to post here something I initially contribute elsewhere. In this case, I responded with the comments below in a thread at TB2K about someone's concern he had been fooled by those speculating about some pending doom that didn't materialize; and that he had lost credibility with those near to him when sharing his concern.
There were several good responses in that pertinent discussion thread. These were my comments (edited a bit here for clarity):
I've been watching and prepping for 30 years now (to varying degrees through that period). Early on, I was a bonafide, front-line Cold War observer, privy to almost daily feint and retreat bluff charges from the Warsaw Pact. That was literally point-blank, end-of-the-world stuff.
It was very cool to have woken up every day through that, able to have learned from the previous day's hard lessons about power, fear, and many other things.
Now as then, eventually, almost all sane and rational folks connected in some way to intelligence and/or preparedness come to these conclusions:
1. Observing and planning is but a game. It has benefits in the real world but in only limited fashion.
2. Those who make predictions about an extremely complex world do so after filtering info through their own singular inputs and preconceptions of what they think the world is about. No human being is capable of monitoring and analyzing all the variables out there today. In fact, even the largest, best equipped organizations can only guess at their own narrow slice of the future.
3. Bottom line ... NO ONE among us can read the tea leaves or can fully decipher the code to tomorrow, period.
4. When really bad stuff does happen, and it surely does, it is almost always a surprise.
5. Adrenaline surges that come with false alarms are immensely counter-productive. Emotion does not help. One must learn to recognize and manage exposure to scaremongers if you are to truly be ready for anything that actually may happen.
6. One of the most important objectives in a personal crisis preparedness plan is to keep a steady and even pace in all things related ... alert-wise, budget-wise, and also in how you share your perspective with others.
7. Your credibility is one of your most important personal resources. It is up to you and you alone to manage it wisely. Never squander it by allowing your emotions to take charge and spill your worst fears--even, or especially, with your loved ones. There's much to be said about this: http://safecastle.blogspot.com/2006/...-preppers.html
In the end--consider that you are a caretaker of your household's future. That entails a lot more than manning the watchtower and sounding alarms. Do what you need to do to ensure your household's safety and enhancing the probabilities for your loved ones' successes into whatever future there might be around the corner.
Play it all strong and close to the vest. Then, when the barbarians are actually coming over the hill (if they ever do), you will still be able to sound that alarm and be believed. And you will hopefully also have the self-control honed through the years to respond appropriately instead of in panic.
Get Ready ... Seriously - www.safecastleroyal.com